The Silent Majority With Matt Goodwin

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.mattgoodwin.org Last night, in our weekly live discussion with paid supporters, we discussed: rumours of an early general election on November 19; the Reform UK donations saga and what I think Reform should do with £72 million ; the latest bombshell statistics on what is happening in Britain’s schools and what it tells us about the future of Britain; and what Piddington’s vote to ‘leave’ the United Kingdom really tells us about the ‘ luxury belief class ’. Here’s a clip from the one-hour discussion: Paid supporters can join me every single week live on the Substack app where we discuss issues that interest us and which often do not feature in mainstream media. It’s just one of the many benefits of being a full subscriber along with full episodes of The Silent Majority podcast , full access to every single post, the full archive, the group chat, and the knowledge you’re supporting a platform that speaks up for the silent majority.

Why are protests erupting in Dover, Portsmouth, and elsewhere? It’s a question that’s on the mind of many British people right now. And it’s a question I explore on this week’s episode of The Silent Majority Podcast, in which I walk you through a series of bombshell revelations about what is really going on in Britain’s broken asylum system and explain why people are being gaslit and misled by the system. If you want to support a platform that speaks up for the silent majority, challenges the establishment, and now reaches millions of people every month , then please join us as a paid supporter . Paid supporters make everything we do possible — they can unlock every full episode of the podcast, every article, live discussions with me, our subscriber-only group chat , and the knowledge that you are helping us reach millions of people with arguments and evidence they simply won’t get anywhere else . Join us today and help us keep growing. PODCAST TRANSCRIPT Hello, everybody. Welcome to the second episode of the Silent Majority podcast, the place where we like to push back against establishment narratives. We like to ask questions that very few people are willing to ask. And more importantly, we like to give you information and evidence you’re probably not going to hear today anywhere else. Now, this week, we’re going to be looking at the disturbances , the eruption of protests and demonstrations in the United Kingdom, in Dover and Portsmouth . Of course, those are related to migration. But I’m going to be asking what actually lies behind the simmering public anger in the country, because I do think we are approaching a very dangerous place. But before we get going and discuss all of that, before we start, I just wanted to say, if you’re listening as one of our free subscribers, if you’re listening on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, wherever you get your podcasts, our early episodes are going to be completely free and open to everybody. But after a little while, we’re going to limit the podcast to a short preview for our free subscribers, and the full episodes are going to be available to our paid supporters over at mattgoodwin.org . And the reason we’re doing that is because we are using the support from a small number of our paid supporters to invest in social media, to build a platform that actually genuinely represents the silent majority. We are reaching tens of millions of people now every month across social media, through things like our Substack newsletter and now this podcast. We are immensely grateful to our paid supporters for making that possible. So if you want access to every post, every episode, the group chat, live discussions with me, head over to mattgoodwin.org and become a paid supporter. Now, enough of that because it’s time to get going with what we really want to talk about today. And that is the eruption of significant protests and demonstrations in Dover and Portsmouth. Many of you will have seen the scenes. These were highly coordinated events, public protests in two major places in the UK. We saw hundreds of people, in some cases dressed in black, wearing balaclavas, taking to the streets, blocking off essentially the port of Dover. And then just a few hours later, the next day even, we saw those extraordinary scenes in Portsmouth where a small boat, a mega dinghy, carrying around 140 illegal migrants arrived off the south coast of England. And when it became clear that that mega dinghy—and of course, this is significant because most of the dinghies and boats do not land at Portsmouth, they go around to Dover—hundreds of protesters started to gather, not just locals, but people from organized networks. And they proceeded to block roads. They tried to block the boat from arriving, and they tried to prevent the police from taking those illegal migrants and asylum seekers to be processed. And Britain was once again this week confronted with, I think, a level of anger, frustration and tension around the immigration issue that is now becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Many Labour politicians quickly proceeded to criticise the protests, demonise the protesters. Prime Minister Andy Burnham described “poison” being brought onto Britain’s streets. The Labour Policing Minister described the protests as being unacceptable. Labour Minister Emma Reynolds described them as being “thuggish”, as dealing with or bringing intimidation. And I do think it’s interesting because for the last few years, we have had a political class in this country, a ruling class, that has been more than happy, more than willing to allow mass protesters to march through the streets of London, Hamas sympathizers, anti-Semites, all kinds of extremists. And they’ve barely said a word. But here we have working-class British people protesting peacefully so far—and I’ll come back to that point—and yet Westminster and much of the left in British politics has had a complete nervous breakdown. I do see a significant amount of hypocrisy. Now, before getting into what’s caused these protests, what lies behind them, the chaos in the asylum system and some absolutely remarkable figures and evidence that we’ve discovered over the last seven days—and I’ll walk you through all of it—and I’m going to talk a bit about where I think this could be taking British society if we do not get control of the borders, obviously I’m just going to insert the caveat at the top of this podcast. I do not support violence. I don’t think anybody who’s involved with our newsletter supports violence. We do not support intimidation. We do not support people breaking the law. We do not support people—well, I don’t support people wearing balaclavas. I don’t think they’re particularly useful. I agree with some politicians this week who have said the best move for Britain is to ban all face coverings, including the burqa and the niqab. We are entering a society here, if we’re not careful, where face coverings are being normalized and becoming mainstream. But let me be crystal clear at the top of this podcast. Let me tell you what I do support. What I do support is the right of the British people to peacefully protest against what is happening to their country. And rather than simply condemning these people, rather than simply calling them far-right extremists, misinformed, and then quickly moving on, as much of the political and media class is doing, I think we need to ask a much more important question, which is what I’m going to answer today. Namely, why is this happening? Why are people becoming so angry in Britain? Why is the country being pushed to the very edge? Why are we seeing so many protests and demonstrations in recent years? Because it’s not just Dover and Portsmouth. It is Epping. It is Bournemouth. It is Dundee. It is Falkirk. A number of towns and cities now have seen significant public protests and demonstrations against a specific policy that is being imposed on this country from above. Britain now feels like it’s on the edge. In fact, only recently, the credible pollsters YouGov asked the British people—this is a mainstream pollster—to what extent do you think it is likely that there will be civil conflict in Britain in the next 10 years? And one-third of all British people, one third, one in three, felt it is very likely that there will be civil conflict, potentially even civil war, in Britain within the next 10 years. So in this episode, I want to really interrogate this and explore this, focusing in particular on what we’ve learned this week about the absolute chaos that is unfolding in Britain’s asylum system. Because while all of these protests were taking place, all of the demonstrations in Dover and Portsmouth, something really important was happening in the background over the last seven days. One story after another broke, one bombshell after another, involving an asylum system in this country that increasingly looks completely overwhelmed and out of control. And I’m going to walk you through the big revelations because when you put them together, I think you begin to understand something critically important. The small boats, the more than 209,000 people who have arrived now in Britain illegally on the small boats—and remember, in some polls, immigration is still the number one issue in the country. It’s why I talk about it perhaps more than other issues. But the small boats are only the most visible part of the crisis that is unfolding in Britain because behind those boats—and this is the important point—sits an asylum system that is simply not working. Sits a government machinery, the blob, the establishment, that is simply not in control of what is happening in this country. So let’s go through what we’ve learned over the last seven days, because I think it has been quite a week. I want to start here with the whistleblower, with a government insider that has blown the whistle on what is really happening behind the scenes. And I want to start with what they have revealed to the British people. Just 1% of asylum claims in Britain, according to somebody who is working on asylum claims, just 1% are genuine claims for asylum. That is what they told the Times newspaper. One in every 100. This is not a fringe. This is not out on the margins or the extreme. This whistleblower went straight to one of the biggest newspapers in the country and said just 1% of asylum claims that they can see that are being processed are genuine. Now, of course, this is not an official Home Office statistic. This is not an official report. But this is somebody who says that they have personally assessed thousands of asylum claims. And what they have seen is nothing short of astonishing. They have talked about what people inside the system apparently call package claims. The same stories, the same supporting evidence, the same circumstances, the same excuses, the same motivations for seeking asylum come up time and time again. In other words, you’re talking about widespread fraud. The examples they gave: hundreds of Iraqi Kurds all saying they’ve been in a relationship with the daughter of the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan region. So either the daughter of the Prime Minister of Kurdistan really gets around, or these guys are gaming the system. So many people made the claim, according to the whistleblower, that it became a running joke inside the Home Office. Another example: hundreds of Pakistani applicants claiming that their lives are at risk because they are in a gay relationship with the same man. That’s right. Hundreds of asylum seekers from Pakistan claiming to be in a relationship with the same man supplied letters supporting the claims. And many people, by the way, who have applied for asylum claiming to be gay also happen to have been photographed at the very same gay nightclub, which it turns out is now closed. Now, of course, we’ve heard allegations like this before. Some of you will remember in recent months we had an undercover BBC investigation which found that immigration advisors and immigration lawyers—it’s a real racket—have offered to help migrants manufacture false sexuality-based asylum claims. They have helped them to pretend to be gay, essentially. So when somebody who actually works inside the system comes forward and says that there is indeed widespread fraud, shouldn’t we be asking some very serious questions? Because this is supposed to be a credible, reliable asylum system. It’s meant to protect people who are genuinely in need, genuinely fleeing persecution. To some extent, Britain should protect a small number of those people. Although many of us, myself included, would argue that through helping refugees from Hong Kong, helping refugees from Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of people— Not only of genuine refugees, but the taxpayer, the British taxpayer. And we’ll come back to the costs later on because it is frankly absurd. Another example was people from Bangladesh who claim to be now under persecution because they happen to belong to a particular political party. But when they were asked about the policies and the beliefs of that political party, they couldn’t answer the officials. You know, we are being completely gamed in this country. And it is the hardworking, taxpaying British people, members of the silent majority, who are being forced to pay billions of pounds every year for this fraudulent scheme. Now, that whistleblower, that wasn’t the only story this week, because that was followed very quickly by a second story, which also pointed to the absurdity of the system. The United Nations Refugee Agency, which I don’t think you can describe as a right-wing organization, to put it mildly—it is definitely a member of the woke industrial complex—looked at how Britain has been conducting asylum interviews. And what did it find? Well, it found that there was a real risk that Britain was giving people asylum who were not entitled to it and that it was making many mistakes. It was refusing people who genuinely needed some protection while also granting asylum to people who are not actually entitled to it. In fact, it found that in nearly 30 of the 60 interviews for asylum that it examined, there were important credibility issues which had not been resolved. In another 19, the full basis of the asylum claim remained unclear. In other words, in many, many asylum claims that are being made here in Britain, those claims, those applications, are not even meeting the quality threshold that has been set by our own government. I mean, this is absolutely outrageous. We’re not talking about somebody on social media, an opposition politician. We’re not talking about a Substack writer even, although they’re great. We’re talking about the United Nations Refugee Agency flagging serious concerns about the quality of decision-making that is currently taking place inside Britain’s asylum system. And the Home Office’s own numbers tell us something else indeed, because what we’ve also seen this week is a series of revelations that really do need to be known by everybody in the country. The initial asylum rate, the rate at which people are being granted asylum after applying, has certainly fallen in recent years. Now, back in 2022, that success rate, that grant rate for people applying for asylum in Britain, was 77%. Almost everybody was getting it, right? They were just rubber-stamping applications left, right and center. Today, it is 38%, so nearly 40%. So we’ve gone from granting more than three quarters of all asylum claims to about four in 10. Now, Labour politicians will sit on television and say, well, look at this, the system’s working, and they’ll gaslight you, a bit like they’re gaslighting you on the hotels. Because what they tell you when it comes to the asylum hotels—and you’ve seen it all week again—they’ll sit on Politics Live or Question Time and they’ll say, well, the number of asylum hotels are coming down. Well, on the surface, that’s true. But what they’re doing behind the scenes is they’re just moving people out of asylum hotels and they’re putting them into HMOs, housing for multiple occupancy, where they put upwards of 10 people in the same house, and they’re moving them into private accommodation. And then you have private companies like Serco, who are offering landlords more favorable contracts if they take on illegal migrants and asylum seekers than if they take on British people. So they offer landlords, for example, things like no council tax, lower bills, instant repairs, all of this kind of stuff. But here’s the kicker. Those private companies like Serco are bankrolled, are backed by money from the government, by money from the British people. So what they’re doing is they’re using your money. They are using your money to outbid you in your own housing market. That is what is going on. That is why I find this so grotesque. It’s why I find it so utterly outrageous. Which raises another obvious question. What on earth has been happening before these asylum claims have seemingly dropped? Are we actually now getting more decisions wrong? What exactly has changed? Well, whichever way you look at it, these are not actually the numbers of a system that is inspiring confidence. If you go back before 2022 into the 2010s, even the 2000s, the number of asylum claims were much lower than they are today. So even at the 40% grant rate, we are still processing and accepting many more applications for asylum than we did in previous years. It’s a bit like when they say, well, the small boat numbers are down 40%, so therefore everybody should just relax and not be concerned. Well, that’s not the metric. The metric is what happened before 2018. And what happened before 2018 is we had no small boats. We don’t want the small boat numbers coming down 40%. We don’t want any small boats. That’s the metric. But what you see is, through this debate, they are trying to normalize illegal migration. They are trying to get people to accept that this is now a permanent feature of our national life. When Andy Burnham says, I’m going to move processing centers, detention centers, from poor areas to rich areas, the debate then becomes about redistributing illegal migration when the debate should be about stopping illegal migration. But the reason they’re gaslighting you is also because they’re not telling you about the appeals process. And this is what we also learned this week. Let me just bring this one up because this is another unbelievable thing. That’s a great story, another unbelievable piece of evidence that came out this week. Because even when the Home Office declines an application for asylum, when it rejects that application, that doesn’t necessarily mean that somebody instantly leaves Britain. They can appeal that decision. And this week we learned much more about what is happening in that appeal process. Close to 6,000 appeals against rejections were allowed. Another 10,200 cases were withdrawn, normally by the Home Office. And when those outcomes are combined, it turns out that two-thirds—and this is in the Times newspaper again—two-thirds of rejected asylum claims are overturned on appeal. 64%. 64% of asylum claims that were initially rejected are overturned on appeal. Nobody will tell you this on BBC Question Time. Think about what that really means. So the Home Office makes a decision. It says no. The case moves into the appeals system. And then a very large proportion of those cases either succeed on appeal or they are withdrawn immediately. Again, what is going on? Either large numbers of initial Home Office decisions are wrong to begin with—I would not be surprised by that—or new information is entering the process later on, or the system is simply struggling to reach consistent decisions. Either way, it is a complete and utter joke. Whatever explanation you prefer, the consequence is the same: more delays, more immigration lawyers, more tribunal hearings, more administration, more money being spent by the hardworking British people during the worst cost-of-living crisis pretty much since the Second World War, going on something they never asked for, they never voted for, and more time before Britain finally establishes whether anybody has a right— The time, the clock just ticks on. And now that backlog has completely exploded. This is what we learned also this week. In fact, we learned about this towards the end of the week. It is, for me, the figure that best captures the total chaos in the system. For months, ministers have been talking about clearing the asylum backlog. They’ve been talking about improvements. They’ve been talking about getting on top of the system, getting things moving. You speak to anybody in Westminster, in the SW1 land, they’ll say, “Oh, isn’t Shabana Mahmood great? She’s doing such a good job.” Except now we’ve discovered something that blows all of that apart because the asylum backlog has not disappear

Does the Right in Britain need to unite? It’s one of the biggest questions in British politics right now — especially with rumours of an early general election once again swirling around Westminster. And it’s a question I address directly on today’s episode of The Silent Majority Podcast, in which I explain why the Left currently has a strong in-built advantage over the Right ahead of the next election. If you want to support a platform that speaks up for the silent majority, challenges the establishment, and now reaches millions of people every month , then please join us as a paid supporter . Paid supporters make everything we do possible — they can unlock every full episode of the podcast, every article, live discussions with me, our subscriber-only group chat , and the knowledge that you are helping us reach millions of people with arguments and evidence they simply won’t get anywhere else . Join us today and help us keep growing. PODCAST TRANSCRIPT Welcome to the Silent Majority Podcast with me, Matt Goodwin. My goal is simple, to tell you the truth, to bring you information you won’t get anywhere else, and to challenge an establishment that’s lost touch with millions of ordinary people. No groupthink, no political correctness, no forbidden questions. Just the issues that really matter to you. Come and join us at mattgoodwin.org. Welcome everybody to the Silent Majority Podcast with me, Matt Goodwin. Now this is a podcast for people who are tired of being ignored, dismissed and shut out from our national conversation. Every Friday, I’m going to give you my unfiltered view of what is really happening in Britain and the West. I’m going to bring you the evidence, the analysis, the statistics, the figures that you probably are not going to hear on the BBC. You’re probably not going to be able to get them anywhere else. And I’m going to challenge the establishment. I’m going to challenge the establishment narratives that we are given from the BBC, from the institutions, from the dominant political class. And I’m going to challenge The groupthink, the lazy groupthink that dominates our culture by asking questions that I think far too many people in politics and the media are too scared to ask or they don’t want to ask because of that lazy groupthink. And today we’re starting with a big one, a really big question: Does the right in Britain need to unite? I’m going to show you some things you might not have seen before. I’m going to do this because I think it’s one of the most important questions of all going into the next general election in the United Kingdom, which I think millions of people can sense is going to be one of the most important general elections in our contemporary history. But before we get to that, because this is our first episode, I just wanted to take a couple of minutes to to explain to you exactly why I decided to do this podcast and what I want it to become. Because I think today, if you look around the media landscape, if you look around the political debate, if you want to call it that, we already have countless podcasts. And so many of those podcasts are made by the same kinds of people for the same kinds of people. They are podcasts that are created by people who have exactly the same underlying assumptions, who ask exactly the same questions, who reach exactly the same conclusions. Who often went to the very same schools and universities and who, to be frank, are completely disconnected from what millions of ordinary people out there in the country and indeed the West really think and believe. So that’s why I wanted to try and do something a little bit different. I don’t want to have guests yelling at each other and talking over one another. I don’t want to have any carefully We’re not going to rehearse talking points. We’re not going to cling to the establishment consensus. We’re not going to follow the lazy group think. I’m not going to tell you what you should think. What I am going to do once a week, every Friday, is give you my unfiltered, honest view of of the biggest issues facing our country and Western nations. And I’m going to present to you and share to you evidence and information that you’re not going to get anywhere else and which I think will challenge the consensus. So hopefully every week you learn something new. Maybe you come across a study or some findings or some evidence that you’ve not really seen or heard anywhere else. I’m hopefully going to contribute to the conversation and I’m going to speak up and represent the silent majority, the millions of people out there who really feel as though their voice is not included in the conversation. And I simply don’t think that ordinary people are being told about it. And that’s what I want to try and do with this podcast. That’s what the silent majority is really going to be about. And I also want this to become more than a podcast. We have a community. Many of you, hopefully, who are listening to this are part of our community at mattgoodwin.org, a Substack community that began a few years ago and has now morphed into a place for nearly 100,000 people who check in every week to read books. What we what I write, what I share on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. So if you want to support our work, if you want to help us speak up for the forgotten majority, if you want to get everything that we’re producing, all of the articles, all of the commentary, if you want to come and join our subscriber group chat, if you want to meet me in live discussions, then please head over to mattgoodwin.org and become a paid supporter . Those are the people who make our work happen. And just to give you some context, we are now reaching tens of millions of people every month through our social media and through our outreach. We’re one of the biggest Substacks in Europe, and it’s absolutely amazing. And it’s thanks to the support of our readers and subscribers that that has been made possible. And we’re actually getting the evidence and the arguments and the information out there. And I think genuinely, we’re making a difference. You can also, of course, put your questions directly to me, and you can join all of our private discussions. So that’s that. That’s why I decided to set up a podcast. That’s why I wanted to do something different. What I want to ask is our first question, which is, does the right in Britain need to unite? Because what I want to show you today is actually what is going on in the United Kingdom. And one of the problems for people on the right, one of the problems for people who perhaps feel so frustrated with things like mass migration, broken borders, record taxes, record energy bills, woke ideology, political correctness, one of the big problems that I see is that the left, left wing parties have figured out how to win under our election system. And people on the right are currently not doing what they need to do in order to win the next general election. And let me just say this at the outset that I believe firmly that we really only have maybe one election left to save Britain, to save the country. Because of all of the things that are profoundly transforming Britain like other Western nations, mass uncontrolled immigration, which nobody ever voted for, broken borders, which nobody ever asked for, rapid and relentless demographic change , which, let’s be honest, is making many of our cities, our towns, our villages is leaving them completely unrecognisable. Not to mention the way in which many of our taxpayer funded public institutions have moved sharply to the left. Over the last 10 or 20 years, while ordinary people have stayed exactly where they are, or if anything, they’ve moved a little bit to the right on issues around culture and identity. All of this has really left an enormous chasm at the heart of our politics. And it’s left many people desperately searching for an alternative. And I think the next general election is going to be one of the big ones. It’s going to be a historic turning point, I think, in the history of the United Kingdom, one that will either push the country into more of this radical, if not extreme political and cultural change and essentially making that permanent. Or it will see millions of people join together to say, no, actually we want to push the country in a completely different direction. We want to end the policies of mass uncontrolled immigration. We want to fix the borders. We want to embed a principle of national preference into the country. We want to put the British people and British young people first. And we want to establish a country that gives power genuinely back to the people who have built that country, who make that country work and who want to pass that country on to their children and their grandchildren. And I think many people can sense just how profound, fundamental and important the next general election is going to be, which is why, which is why if you look at the current polling and you look at what is happening in British politics today and you look at what would happen if there was a general election tomorrow, you can begin to see the problem that many of those people are going to encounter. If you take all of the polling and I’m talking to you here in early September, 2026, if you take all of the polling and you run what’s called a forecast model and look at what would happen at the next general election. And as of today, the result would be another five years of left wing, liberal left wing government. The Labour Party would fall 60 seats short of a majority, but would be able to cobble together a working majority with the Liberal Democrats. There would be a sort of Labour led coalition. And the reason for that, for those of you who are watching this podcast and can see the numbers on the screen, the reason for that is because of the division on the right, because of the division between the Conservative Party, the Reform Party, and to a much lesser extent, Restore Britain. If there were an election tomorrow, the Conservative Party are predicted to win 119 seats. Reform would replace the Conservative Party as the dominant party on the right of politics with 132 seats, obviously a very historic shift. Restore most likely would pick up perhaps one or two seats, maybe one in Great Yarmouth, and that’s about it. But the key point here is that even though you see that significant takeover of the right by Nigel Farage and Reform UK, Nobody on the right actually enters power because they are well short of the 326 seats that you would need in order to win a majority and take control of the country. Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, with over 50 seats, potentially, of course, alongside the SNP, would be able to cobble together some kind of working coalition. Now, this is the reality that is facing the right. This is the reality that is facing the right in British politics. And the reason we’re seeing some of this is because the left is consolidating and the right remains divided. So what we’ve seen since Prime Minister Andy Burnham has come into office is he’s doing a better job at winning back people who have switched to the Greens. He’s doing a better job at winning back some Liberal Democrats, and he is doing a better job at winning back People that voted Labour in 2024, but were then alienated by Keir Starmer’s premiership. So slowly but surely, this explains the bounce that the Labour Party have had in the polls. Andy Burnham has consolidated part of that left wing vote. But the right remains more divided than ever. Now, I have a funny feeling. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is probably going to go for a general election earlier than many people think. And there are a few reasons why I think that’s going to happen. One is he feels locked in by the 2024 mandate. He feels locked in by the manifesto that Labour campaigned on in 2024. He feels that he cannot get sufficient radicalism when it comes to economic and social policy. He won’t be able to move too far away from that manifesto. I think he’s also going to be looking at the debt markets, at the bond markets, and how they’re moving. And what we can see currently is a great deal of concern in the financial markets about the direction of travel, rising costs, The cost of servicing Britain’s enormous pile of debt, we now have nearly three trillion pounds worth of debt. The cost of servicing that debt is going up and up and a debt crisis, a big debt crisis of some kind looks likely. And it may be that some within the Labour Party want to potentially go to the country before that really does implode. But the main reason Andy Burnham, I suspect, will go much earlier than people think will be because of this division on the right. And a strange place to start, but I think an important one is what happened at an obscure local election in Kent, Dover, Last week, where I just want to show you exactly what took place in the Guston Kingsdown and St Margaret’s at Cliff local by-election. Not many people would have been watching it. But what was so fascinating about this contest is that parties on the right, between them, reform, the Tories, restore, polled 55% of the vote in this ward. More than half of all voters voted for the right. And actually, you see this in many national polls. The right is polling upwards of 50%. So you can see the appetite is there for a change of direction in Britain and the country. But the Green Party ended up winning this local election on just 28% of the vote. In fact, it won the election by just 34 votes. How is that possible, you might ask? It’s possible because of how that right-wing vote was split three ways between reform, which emerged as a dominant party on the right with 27.5%, the Tories, 10 points behind on 17%, and Restore Britain, Rupert Lowe’s party, even further behind on 10%. The reason I’m showing you this is because if the right do not get organised then this is exactly what is going to happen at the next general election in Britain. It might not be the Green Party winning, it will be Andy Burnham and the Labour Party. Because under first-past-the-post, all you need to win a seat is not 50% and above. But in Britain’s election system, you just need one more vote than the second place party. And so what you might see at the next general election is the result that we saw in Dover playing out from one seat to the next from one part of the country to the next as a divided right is outflanked by a more consolidated left. Now, one of the reasons why people on the left really have an advantage at the moment over people on the right is because of what is actually going on underneath the surface, and that is tactical voting. And I think this is going to be one of the big stories at the next general election in Britain, if I’m honest with you, because tactical voting is not impacting the left and the right equally. This is the big challenge that everybody on the right needs to think about and really needs to reflect on. If you look at people on the left of British politics, Labour voters, Liberal Democrat voters, Green voters, they are much more likely to say they will vote tactically to stop the right than people on the right are in saying they would vote tactically to stop the left. Labour voters, for example, roughly 69-77% of Labour voters say they would switch to the Liberal Democrats to stop the Reform Party, or say they would switch to the Greens to stop the Tories and say they would switch to the Greens to stop Reform. The overwhelming majority of Labour Party voters, in other words, would happily lend their vote to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens in order to stop the Right. And if you’re watching this podcast, rather than listening, you’ll be able to see the numbers from a YouGov study just a few months ago that makes this crystal clear. You have a much greater degree of discipline on the left when it comes to tactical voting than you have on the right. Now let’s look at the right. Let’s look at how reform UK voters would vote under similar tactical voting scenarios . Well, imagine you were in a seat where it was Tory versus Lib Dem or Tory versus Labour or Tory versus Green. In these scenarios, only between 37 and 41% of reform UK voters would switch to the Conservatives to help them get over the line. A much larger number would stay loyal to Reform UK. They are much less likely, Reform voters than their counterparts in the Labour Party or the Greens, to switch over and support another party tactically. And you see exactly the same thing with Conservative voters. Conservative Party voters are much less likely than Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters to vote tactically. This is what YouGov said when they were concluding that study . “Tactical voting among supporters of right-wing parties is both less common and less mutual, though it is still less present. The key line there being less common, less mutual.” Now, how does Restore Britain fit into all of this? Well, it wasn’t included in that particular study, but there was another fascinating poll which asked Restore Britain voters whether they would be open to voting for Reform UK. And only 36% of Restore Britain voters said they would be open to voting for Reform UK. 36%. And only 23% would be open to supporting the Conservatives. So again, what you see among Restore Britain voters, much lower numbers compared to those big 60-70% figures for Labour, Lib Dem and Green. Restore voters are less willing to switch over to support reform UK at the next general election and to do so tactically. You might say to me, well, actually, Matt, maybe one tiny local council by-election in a corner of Kent is not going to predict what happens at the next general election. But what I am saying to you is, it is a warning. It is a warning of what is going to happen in this country, what is going to happen in If the right of politics does not actually get its act together. If the right of British politics does not start to vote tactically, then it will lose the next general election. And then you need to think about what that means. If the right in Britain loses the next election, it will be more mass uncontrolled immigration. It will be more broken borders. It will be more Woke ideology. It will be more putting people ahead of the British people who are not even from Britain. It will be more of the sectarianism and the illegal family voting that we’re seeing across large parts of the country. The kind of illegal family voting I warned about when I stood for Reform UK at the Gorton and Denton by-election and people said that I was a bad loser. And yet two weeks ago, Birmingham City Council reveals that there had been election interference in 50 polling stations across our second city. And that comes after that study in Greater Manchester in the seat of Gorton and Denton, which found illegal family voting in more than two thirds of all polling stations. This is what’s going to happen if the left win the next general election. More and more of our political system We’ll come under the influence of things like sectarianism, illegal family voting, and more and more of our cities, our towns and villages will become unrecognisable because of relentless demographic change. The kind of change that Labor, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are entirely comfortable with. So what I am saying, and let me be clear, what I’m saying to everybody on the right is this: If you do not start to vote tactically, if you do not start to consolidate around one alternative to the establishment, then you will lose the next general election and the left will dominate Britain well into the 2030s. I also would urge everybody to remember what happened in 2019. In 2019, When Boris Johnson promised to get Brexit done, Nigel Farage realised how close the country was to having that democratic vote for Brexit undermined and blocked by the establishment in Westminst

Join more than 90,000 readers and receive evidence and analysis that challenges the establishment each week. Become a paid supporter to unlock every article, the full Silent Majority podcast every Friday, and the group chat— while supporting independent voices that are speaking up for ordinary people. SOMETHING NEW IS STARTING After thinking carefully about where I want to take this community of ours next, I’m delighted to announce that next Friday we are launching a brand new weekly podcast. THE SILENT MAJORITY with Matt Goodwin The idea behind it is simple. Look across the mainstream media today and you’ll find countless political podcasts that are all made for exactly the same group of people. A minority of liberal progressives and centrists who represent no more than 10-15 per cent of the population but who dominate our political and media debate. They all look the same. They all sound the same. They all think the same. And they all believe the same things. Immigration is good. 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Something you can listen to while walking the dog, going on a run, doing housework, driving to work, or commuting home on the train. And the timing could hardly be better. Parliament returns next week. We have huge elections coming in Europe. And we may even be heading toward an early general election here in Britain. There is an enormous amount coming. And we’re going to cover all of it. Every Monday and Wednesday, you’ll continue to receive my written posts. And then every Friday the Silent Majority podcast brings the week together. Free Subscribers will be able to hear the opening of the show. Paid supporters will receive the full episode every Friday. So, if you’ve been thinking about becoming a paid supporter and unlocking everything we do, then now is the time to join us . LAUNCH OFFER - 48 HOURS ONLY To celebrate the launch, I’m offering a 20% discount on subscriptions for the next 48-hours. And there’s something else. The first 30 people who upgrade will also receive the audiobook of my latest Number 1 Sunday Times bestselling book completely FREE. The audiobook is read by me and tells the story of how Britain reached this point — and what I believe needs to change. Once the 30 audiobooks are gone, they’re gone. So, when you become a paid supporter, you’ll get: * The full Silent Majority podcast every Friday. * All my paid articles and analysis. * A reserved seat at live discussions and events. * Access to the subscriber group chat and comments. * And, for the first 30 upgrades , a FREE audio edition of Suicide of a Nation This community has grown because tens of thousands of people believe there should still be somewhere you can discuss the big questions facing our country openly and honestly. We’ve built that community together and through Substack and our social media it is now reaching tens of millions of people every single month. 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