Conflicts of Interest

The US is using missiles and air-defence interceptors across multiple fronts — from the war with Iran and protecting bases in the Middle East to years of support for Ukraine. But can American weapons production keep up with demand? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED President and CEO Clionadh Raleigh joins Bron Mills to ask whether the US is really running short of missiles — and what dwindling stocks could mean for Ukraine, Europe and American deterrence against Russia and China. They deconstruct why sophisticated interceptors take so long and cost so much to produce, how cheap drone swarms are changing the economics of warfare, and why critical minerals are becoming increasingly important to military power. Plus: the latest US-Iran exchanges, the economic pressure building inside Iran, and why Clionadh believes drones, missiles, AI and the ability to outproduce your opponents could define the next era of state-on-state conflict. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is threatening ships, US interests and countries that support Washington. The Houthis are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. And cyber attacks are bringing the conflict much closer to home. ACLED President and CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills discuss who really controls one of the world’s most important shipping routes — and whether the Gulf is becoming the centre of a much bigger global struggle. They discuss Trump’s promised “economic D-Day” against Iran, Tehran’s strategy, cyber warfare and attacks on civilian infrastructure, the Houthis’ growing leverage, and why future wars may be fought as much through businesses, energy systems and global trade as on traditional battlefields. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Who can still rely on the United States — and which countries are building new alliances instead? From Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong Un and South Korea, to the growing partnership between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the global alliance map is shifting. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, prof Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills connect the dots between some of the biggest geopolitical developments shaping the world: Russia’s threats against Britain, the war in Ukraine, shifting US–Israel relations, tensions with Iran, and the rise of increasingly influential middle powers. From Trump, Putin and Kim Jong Un to Netanyahu, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, this episode looks beyond individual relationships to ask who is gaining influence, who is losing it — and what the emerging global order could look like. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

India’s ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ protest movement has claimed a major victory, forcing the resignation of the country’s education minister — the first cabinet minister to resign under public pressure in 12 years of Narendra Modi’s government. ACLED’s Pearl Pandya joins Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills to ask why this movement succeeded where others have failed, whether India’s young protesters can turn their first victory into lasting political change, and why they deliberately distanced themselves from the Gen Z movements seen elsewhere in South Asia. They also look across the border to Pakistan, where rising Islamist militancy, tensions with Afghanistan and a resurgent Baloch separatist movement reveal a very different relationship between protest, repression and political violence. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Two years after Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election — and months after Nicolás Maduro was removed from power — who is really running the country? Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED’s Tiziano Breda to trace how the contested election helped pave the way for Maduro’s downfall and examine the uneasy system that has replaced him. Delcy Rodríguez remains in power, the opposition is still waiting for a transition, and Washington holds enormous leverage over Venezuela’s oil industry. They also ask what the US actually wants from Venezuela, whether elections are coming, and how June’s devastating earthquakes could upset an already fragile political balance, from fuelling public anger to creating new opportunities for armed groups. And with billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues reportedly passing through a US-controlled system, one question looms particularly large: where is the money going? For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump? Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict. Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s changing terror threat, the rise of less sophisticated, lone-actor attacks, and the difficult question facing governments: how do you prevent rare but devastating violence without over-securitising society? For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction. This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond: Is the far left genuinely becoming a greater security threat, or is the danger being overstated for political gain? What does the data actually say about violence committed by far-right vs far-left actors? Why does the perception of the threat diverge so sharply from the reality? How does partisan framing of national security distort counterterrorism priorities? They also discuss the rising tide of violence against politicians and local officials, the Trump administration's latest gender politics in the US military, and the accelerating trend of everything — from national security to football — becoming partisan. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains. They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised aircraft, and shifting alliances are reshaping the conflict. The conversation explores China's role as the country's most influential external player, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh the concerns of three million displaced civilians. The episode also turns to Iran and Ukraine, where recent escalations have raised fresh questions about the trajectory of both wars, the limits of military force, and what comes next. From Tehran to Naypyidaw, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

This week on Conflict of Interests , Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh humanitarian concerns. The episode also turns to Iran, where the funeral of the country's supreme leader drew vast crowds and raised fresh questions about the future of the regime, domestic support, and what comes next after the war. From Tehran to Khartoum, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push? Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — and with the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years about to take office, the question isn't whether it escalates, but where. This week, Clionadh and Bron break down the weekend's strikes on Iran, why the Hormuz closure matters more than the bombs, and what the MoU's fragility tells us about who really holds the cards. They look at why Tehran gains from the chaos, what the US retaliation did and didn't achieve, and why a ceasefire that was always a stopgap is now visibly in question. They also explore the UK's anti-migration escalation, examine how one attack spiraled into nationwide unrest, and connect the deeper thread: state failure, institutional decay, and the erosion of public trust, at home and abroad. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz matters, and what this supposed progress really amounts to. They look at whether Trump is trying to wash his hands of a war he failed to finish, why Lebanon remains a major fault line in any agreement, and why a deal that sounds stabilising on paper could leave Iran in a much stronger position in practice. They also discuss Colombia’s rightward turn and what a tougher security agenda could mean for violence and the state, before turning to Keir Starmer’s resignation, rising anti-migration tensions in the UK, and what Britain’s increasingly combustible political mood might produce next. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragile than they appear. They also discuss the latest tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, why some conflicts never really end, and the World Cup moments everyone is talking about, from Scotland's historic win to the DRC fans stealing the show. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room , funding factions, brokering deals, and projecting power in ways that Western foreign policy simply isn't built to see. They discuss why the Sudan conflict defies standard narratives about civil war, what the Ethiopia war reveals about the limits of international intervention and how Eritrea's role is almost entirely absent from Western coverage. Plus - with eyes on Iran and the Middle East, why The Gulf states' strategic interests remain in the Horn. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point from here? With negotiations fragile and red lines on all sides, we assess what a credible outcome looks like, and whether one is actually possible. Beyond Iran, this week's episode covers the full sweep of global flashpoints. Lebanon's fragile recovery and what's driving the latest tensions. Israel's strategic position and the risks of renewed escalation. Colombia's worsening armed conflict and the overlooked violence reshaping the country. The growing threat to critical seabed cable infrastructure, an underreported front in the new era of great power competition. And Ethiopia, where instability continues to deepen with little international attention. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

On this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills catch up on Day 88 of the Iran war — a moment defined more by paralysis than progress. They unpack Iran's internet blackout, finally ending after months of restrictions, what it reveals about Tehran's grip on internal dissent, and why the latest round of US-Iran peace talks remains trapped in a web of competing agendas. Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the Gulf states are pulling in different directions, and that fracture is poisoning any path to a genuine deal. Clionadh's assessment is direct: there is "no peaceful way out" of the current crisis. From Iran, the conversation shifts to Russia. As drone warfare reshapes the Ukrainian battlefield, Clionadh breaks down what Moscow's mounting desperation actually looks like on the ground, and what it means for a war that shows no sign of resolution. Also on the episode: Pakistan's renewed wave of suicide bomb attacks and the domestic security spiral no one is covering, the widening Saudi-Qatar-UAE divide over regional strategy, Trump's comments on Iran's football team ahead of the World Cup, and what it says when sport and geopolitics keep colliding. Plus: the surprisingly difficult task of avoiding dead bodies on holiday. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The world is moving so quickly it is becoming harder to know where to look first. Iran remains on edge around the Strait of Hormuz. Ebola is spreading through one of the DRC’s most militarized regions. And attacks on places of worship are exposing the messy overlap between extremism, antisemitism, misogyny, and political violence. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills try to make sense of a week where every crisis seems to be accelerating at once — from Iran’s strategic calculus and escalation risk, to the challenge of containing disease in conflict zones, and the growing pressure on free speech from Germany to the UK. Also on the radar: Russia’s shadow fleet, and why sanctions-busting tankers are becoming part of the hybrid warfare conversation. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

As headlines swing wildly between ceasefire talks, missile strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs and fresh retaliation, this episode of Conflicts of Interest explores the growing sense of global confusion surrounding modern conflict. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Bron Mills to unpack the “attention war” shaping how conflicts are understood online, where algorithms, viral misinformation and nonstop breaking news are increasingly competing with verified reporting and nuance. From Iran and the United States to Russia, Ukraine and the UK, the conversation examines how modern warfare now unfolds across both battlefields and social media feeds — often leaving audiences struggling to understand what is actually happening, what matters, and what comes next. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the future of conflict. From frozen front lines to Saudi air bases, the drone revolution is reshaping how wars are fought — and by whom. But as Stupnicki warns, Europe shouldn't feel safe either. A shapeless, ever-present drone threat is already on its doorstep. This is a conversation you won't want to miss. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Senior Research Assistant Nohad Eltayeb unpack the drivers of this new phase of war: the UAE’s role in RSF supply routes and political pressure on SAF, how Chad’s border closure has driven up RSF transport and fuel costs, militia networks stretching toward Niger, and how fractured loyalties and fluid alliances are entrenching long-term conflict fragmentation. Can a war built on shifting alliances, militia economies, and foreign patrons end through negotiation — or does fragmentation become the next phase of conflict? For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

An assassination attempt on the US president. A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali. Rising violence in Chad. Continued fighting in Lebanon. As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest , ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the significant developments over the last 48 hours alone - and the dynamics driving this moment — from stalled negotiations and economic pressure in Iran, to the resurgence of conflict across the Sahel and the Middle East. The question isn’t just whether the Iran war will escalate — but how many other conflicts already are. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?