The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

Feeder cattle prices just took a brutal hit — 500-549 lb steers are down nearly $49 per hundredweight in just thirty days, and the 600-649 lb class isn't far behind. Brock and Jim break down whether this correction is the start of something bigger or just a market catching its breath before the next move. In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim dig into three major storylines shaping the cattle market. First, they unpack the tangled trade policy landscape, from new executive orders on beef and cattle to Canada's retaliatory tariffs and Brazil's shifting export mix, weighing whether political noise or market fundamentals will ultimately drive prices. Jim shares a personal flashback to the NAFTA panic of 1993 that adds real perspective to today's tariff headlines. Next, they examine global feed grain and soybean trends, including China's softening hog demand and an unexpected new demand driver: GLP-1 drug users turning to soy-based protein. Finally, the guys tackle animal health and biosecurity, covering the latest screwworm detection numbers, a new pest biosecurity R&D platform planned for San Antonio, and Jim's memories of the original screwworm eradication program from the 1980s. Whether you're tracking feeder cattle futures, watching trade policy fallout, or keeping an eye on biosecurity threats, this episode delivers the market intelligence producers need heading into the next month.

Only 18% of pasture and range conditions are rated good to excellent this week, down sharply from 38% a year ago, and drought coverage across the lower 48 has expanded over 23% in the past month alone. With Tyson Foods slashing its profit outlook twice in one month and cattle futures cooling from August highs, producers are facing a market squeeze from multiple directions at once. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash cattle prices, with 500-549 weight steers down to $372.81/cwt and 600-649 weights at $341.82/cwt, both retreating from last month's peak. They dig into the Tyson margin story and draw a direct parallel to the 1999 IBP packer squeeze, warning producers to watch kill rates and buyer pickiness on weight and grade as leading indicators. The pair also unpack competing federal policy moves—Representative Figures' bill targeting the 300,000 metric ton beef import allowance versus Trump's executive orders on wolf protection and country-of-origin labeling—highlighting the fragmented approach to trade policy right now. The episode closes with a deep dive into deteriorating drought conditions nationwide, Jim's firsthand account of the 1996 West Texas drought liquidation, and why protecting core herd genetics may pay off more than panic-selling. International context from France's billion-euro drought aid package rounds out a wide-ranging discussion on cattle prices, packer margins, beef trade policy, and range conditions heading into fall.

Cattle prices are cratering as feeder steers drop nearly $25 per hundredweight in just five weeks, and a controversial tariff proclamation benefiting Brazilian beef imports has producers demanding Washington "stay out of the way." Meanwhile, pasture conditions have collapsed to just 18% Good-to-Excellent—down from 38% a year ago—signaling a supply squeeze that could reshape the market for years to come. In this Friday wrap for September 4th, Brock and Jim break down a brutal week of cattle market data, with both lightweight and heavyweight feeder classes showing steep week-over-week and month-over-month declines. They dig into Proclamation 11059's tariff holiday on Brazilian beef trimmings, JBS executive Joesley Batista's direct meeting with Trump, and the DOJ's expanded antitrust probe now targeting major retailers like Walmart and Costco. The duo also tackles wild futures market volatility, with the August live cattle contract swinging on tariff speculation, border news, and contract expiration dynamics. The episode's third deep dive tackles the deteriorating drought and range conditions across the country, with corn crop ratings and pasture conditions both declining sharply compared to last year. Jim draws parallels to the 1988 drought and 1995 Mexican peso crisis, offering historical perspective on how cattlemen have weathered similar supply shocks and policy uncertainty before. Producers looking for guidance on basis levels, hedging strategy, and marketing decisions amid this policy-driven volatility will find plenty of actionable takeaways in this week's discussion.

Feeder cattle prices are sliding fast, and a controversial tariff waiver on Brazilian beef imports is only adding to the chaos. Brock and Jim break down why the cash market and policy headlines are pulling cattle futures in opposite directions this week. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim dig into the weekly cattle price snapshot, with 500-549 weight steers down over $24 from a month ago and forecasts pointing to further softness through September. They unpack Proclamation 11059, the 90-day tariff waiver on imported ground beef that's benefiting Brazil and squeezing Argentina's export momentum, plus a separate processing order aimed at breaking up packer concentration. Jim draws a sharp parallel to the 1989 Meat Import Act trigger, offering a veteran's perspective on how government intervention in beef markets has played out before. The conversation also covers the phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports at the Douglas, Arizona port of entry, a new screwworm case detected in Sonora, and the FDA's emergency authorization of a generic ivermectin treatment. Jim shares firsthand memories of the 1976 screwworm outbreak and the joint US-Mexico eradication program that beat it decades ago. Finally, Brock and Jim examine the shrinking producer share of the retail beef dollar, down from 63 cents in 1980 to just 37 cents in 2021, and what that means for herd rebuilding decisions amid ongoing drought and rising input costs. It's a packed episode covering trade policy, animal disease risk, and the economics squeezing cattle producers even as headline prices stay strong.

Feeder cattle futures took a beating this week, with 500-549 weight steers sliding $22 off their July highs and 600-649 weight steers forecast to drop another $27 in just seven days. Three separate down days, three separate causes — and Brock and Jim break down why the cattle market got hit from every direction at once. In this Friday wrap of Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim unpack the week's biggest cattle market news: the Trump administration's move to waive beef tariffs and expand lean trimming imports, the phased reopening of the US-Mexico border for cattle after screwworm concerns, and a weakening consumer confidence report that piled onto an already jittery cash market. Jim draws parallels to the 1999 beef trimming import debate and the 2005 Canadian border reopening, arguing that markets often react harder to policy headlines than to the actual volume that follows. The two also dig into this week's Cattle on Feed report, which showed record-low July placements and marketings — a sign that despite the short-term price pressure, the underlying cattle supply remains historically tight. Brock and Jim close with practical guidance for producers: don't overreact to a single day's futures swing, watch how import volumes actually materialize over the coming weeks, and track the next Cattle on Feed report closely. This episode covers feeder cattle prices, cash cattle markets, beef import policy, border reopening news, and cattle futures forecasts for the week of August 28, 2026.

Trump's surprise 90-day tariff waiver just cracked open the door to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, and cattle producers are furious—even as feeder cattle prices are already sliding hard and fast. Brock and Jim break down why this move eerily echoes a 1986 trade decision that hammered feeder prices before tight domestic supply forced a rebound, and question whether history is about to repeat itself. This Tuesday Update covers the full market picture: 500-549 weight steers down over $22 in a month, 600-649 weights forecast to keep sliding before stabilizing by mid-September, and a deep dive into the tariff waiver's political and economic fallout, including how producers' share of the retail beef dollar has collapsed from 63 cents in 1980 to just 37 cents today. Brock and Jim also unpack the Mexican border reopening for cattle imports, complicated by rising screwworm detections in Chihuahua and Sonora that could delay the anticipated 150,000-head import estimate. The episode closes with a look at July's cattle marketings—the lowest since 1996—Tyson's plant closure in Joslin, Illinois, and what historically tight supply combined with packer restructuring could mean for leverage shifting back to producers this fall. Jim draws on his own experience from the 1996 drought and the 1986 import policy shift to frame today's headlines in historical context, offering listeners a grounded perspective on where these markets may be headed next.

Feeder cattle prices are sliding hard across the board, and USDA's WASDE report just extended the bearish outlook all the way through 2027. With plant closures, border tariffs looming, and a new screwworm case threatening Mexican import hopes, cattle producers are facing pressure from every direction this week. In this Friday wrap, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures numbers, with 500-549 weight steers down nearly $30 over the past month and 600-649 steers forecast to keep sliding through September. The duo digs into major packing sector shifts, including Tyson's plant closures in Illinois and Utah, Cargill's Fort Morgan facility set to resume production after a labor dispute resolution, and a leadership change at Frick's Quality Meats. They also unpack USDA's lowered cattle price forecasts and the surprising disconnect between tight beef production and weak consumer demand driving the market. The episode closes with a deep dive into border risk, covering the looming US-Canada tariff deadline and a new screwworm case in Ciudad Juárez that threatens to delay Mexican cattle import resumption. Jim draws on decades of market history, from the 1987 IBP consolidation to the 2003 BSE border shutdown, to give producers perspective on how packing consolidation and biosecurity scares have reshaped cattle markets before. Brock and Jim close with practical advice for producers navigating a market where demand, not supply, is currently calling the shots.

Tyson just pulled the trigger on a historic contraction—closing or selling three beef plants while bracing for a staggering $650 million operating loss in fiscal 2026. With roughly 10,000 head per day in processing capacity vanishing almost overnight, Brock and Jim break down why this "historic cattle shortage" is reshaping where producers can even sell their cattle. In this Tuesday update for August 18th, Brock and Jim dig into feeder cattle prices showing real softness, with 500-549 weight steers down $7.80 week-over-week and heavier weights sliding on forecast data through September. They unpack the Tyson plant closures in Joslin, Illinois and Pasco, Washington, and what it means for basis and buyer competition, drawing on Jim's firsthand memory of the Plainview plant closure back in '94. The conversation moves into cattle futures volatility, with fund and technical selling pushing prices to two-and-a-half week lows amid growing doubts about consumer beef demand—plus Jim's gripping account of the 2003 BSE crisis and the risk-management lessons it still teaches today. The episode wraps with a broader look at global beef demand trends, including the booming outdoor grilling market, a $136-per-head value-add strategy for weaned calves from Merck Animal Health's Dr. John Hutcheson, and international headwinds from Ukraine's agricultural liquidity crisis to Brazil's MBRF profit decline. They close with a nod to the ongoing MCOOL labeling debate and its ties to the packer capacity conversation shaping this week's cattle market news.

Tyson is anchoring its entire beef business around just three plants, JBS is shutting down harvesting at its Souderton, Pennsylvania facility today, and USDA is calling this one of the most historic cattle shortages on record. Yet despite that tightening supply, USDA just lowered its cattle price forecasts through 2027 — a contradiction that has Brock and Jim digging into what's really driving the cattle market this week. In this Friday wrap for August 14th, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle price data, showing short-term stabilization in the 500-549 and 600-649 weight classes even as both remain sharply down from a month ago. They cover the meatpacking industry's rapid restructuring, including Tyson's three-plant strategy, JBS's Souderton conversion and $102 million net loss, and major CEO transitions at U.S. Premium Beef and JBS. The duo also examines a wave of weather disruption hitting cattle production across three continents — a potential super El Niño threatening South American drought, British Columbia wildfires forcing livestock evacuations, and Austrian heat pushing cattle off Alpine pastures early — alongside expanding U.S. drought coverage. Jim shares firsthand stories from the 1993 IBP plant closure and the 1998 drought to give producers historical context for today's headlines. The episode wraps with a look at the August WASDE report, softening fed cattle demand, surging ground beef prices, and what it all means for producer margins heading into fall.

Feeder cattle have come off their summer highs, but the lighter steers are already firming back up—500- to 549-pound steers ticked up to over $417 per hundredweight this past week—and Brock and Jim break down why the trend still points higher.. With feeder and stocker marketings running 23.2% below the three-year average, the underlying supply story remains tight, even as futures whipsaw on unrelated economic headlines. This Tuesday update covers the full cattle market picture: a detailed look at recent price action across weight classes, national forecasts showing a rebound to come, and insight from a Texas A&M AgriLife economist who says the price ceiling hasn't been hit yet. Brock and Jim also dig into surging ground beef demand outpacing supply, Brazil's shifting protein consumption patterns, and FAO data showing global food prices at a three-year high even as meat prices ease. A $2.5 billion JBS Australia-Danantara joint venture signals major institutional confidence in Southeast Asian protein demand, while U.S. Premium Beef announces CEO Stan Linville's retirement after nearly 30 years. The episode wraps with a look at AI-powered drones transforming pasture and herd management, plus workforce and crop updates from across the industry. Jim brings a callback to the 1996 drought years to put today's feeder supply crunch in perspective, and closes out with another one-liner too good to spoil here. Whether you're marketing cattle this month or just tracking where the cattle market is headed next, this episode delivers the data and context to stay ahead.

Feeder cattle prices just took a serious tumble—five hundred to five-forty-nine pound steers dropped from $463.08 to $408.76 per hundredweight in just five weeks, and the six-hundred-weight class fell even harder. But with national forecasts pointing to a rebound and futures hitting three-week highs before wobbling again, the cattle market is delivering whiplash few saw coming. In this Friday wrap for August 7th, Brock and Jim break down the numbers behind the recent pullback in feeder cattle markets, tracing the slide from late June through late July across multiple weight classes. They dig into national price predictions showing a potential recovery, with the 500-549 pound class expected to climb back toward $419.50 per hundredweight within three weeks, signaling some optimism despite the recent softness. The duo also unpacks a report from The Cattle Site detailing how live and feeder cattle futures hit three-week highs on technical strength and supportive outside markets, only to fall the very next day on demand worries linked to broader stock market weakness. Brock and Jim discuss what this volatility means for producers trying to time sales, and they close out with a look at trading volume trends, noting that light volume in late June has given way to stronger buyer participation heading into August. It's a snapshot of a market caught between short-term jitters and a tight underlying supply story that continues to support values.

Cattle futures just snapped a brutal 15-day losing streak, feeder cattle prices are sliding fast on lighter weights, and the US-Mexico border is finally set to reopen for cattle trade after screwworm shutdowns. This week's Cattle Market Guys breaks down whether the worst is over—or just beginning. Brock and Jim dive into a volatile week for the cattle market, starting with feeder cattle cash prices that dropped sharply across multiple weight classes, though prediction models point to a rebound in the coming weeks. They unpack USDA's phased reopening of the Douglas, Arizona and Santa Teresa ports of entry, backed by a $25 million investment in sterile fly dispersal to combat screwworm, with Jim drawing on his firsthand experience from the 1987 border shutdown to explain what producers can expect this time around. The conversation then turns to the wild swings in live cattle and feeder cattle futures, including a four-month low followed by a sharp short-covering rally, with Jim recalling a similar trainwreck-turned-recovery from 1996. Finally, Brock and Jim break down a stack of fresh USDA reports—Cattle Inventory, Cattle on Feed, Red Meat Production, and Cold Storage—revealing a supply picture that's tighter than headline numbers suggest, with shrinking beef inventories and declining production even as cattle on feed ticks up. Whether you're marketing calves, watching the border, or trying to make sense of feedlot data, this episode delivers the numbers and the perspective to navigate a fast-moving cattle market.

Cattle futures just hit a four-month low, feeder cattle prices are sliding on thin volume, and now USDA drops a bombshell: the US-Mexico border is reopening to cattle trade after more than a year of screwworm-driven shutdowns. Brock and Jim break down why this Tuesday's numbers matter more than most. On this episode of Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim dig into the latest feeder cattle price data, where 500-549 weight steers and 600-649 weight steers both softened week-over-week, while futures markets swung sharply before stabilizing ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The pair then shift to the biggest story of the week—USDA's phased reopening of southern livestock ports starting with Douglas, Arizona on August 24th, plus a promising biological breakthrough in Panama using NovoFly genetic technology to fight New World Screwworm. Jim shares firsthand memories of the 1980 screwworm outbreak that shaped border policy for decades. The conversation also covers global beef trade, including a troubling 17.2% year-over-year drop in US beef exports, new market access wins with Chile, Ecuador's fresh trade deal with Canada, and the Meat Institute's cost analysis on mandatory country-of-origin labeling. Jim recalls the 2003 mad cow crisis and how long it took to rebuild lost export relationships. Finally, Brock and Jim unpack this week's cattle futures volatility, a four-month low in live cattle, and what the newest Cattle on Feed report signals for producers heading into August.

Live cattle futures just suffered fifteen straight losing sessions in July, dragging prices to a four-month low before finally stabilizing—but is this a genuine fundamental breakdown or just the board working through paper losses? Brock and Jim break down why cash cattle weakness and summer demand seasonality sparked the slide, and why USDA's WASDE report still projects firm prices for the back half of 2026. This week's Cattle Market Guys covers the full feeder cattle snapshot, with lighter-weight steers sliding sharply while heavier weight classes show mixed signals amid heavy trading volume. Brock and Jim dig into shifting global trade flows, as U.S. beef exports fall over 17% year-over-year while imports climb nearly 10%, with Argentina capitalizing on booming shipments and Brazil facing new tariff exemptions alongside declining export volumes tied to Chinese quota limits. The episode also examines deteriorating corn and pasture conditions across the Plains, even as overall drought coverage improves, raising questions about stocker cattle economics and potential fall culling decisions. Throughout the episode, Jim draws on decades of market experience, sharing stories from 1993's futures slump, the 1999 trade imbalance debate, and the devastating 1988 drought, offering historical context for today's volatile conditions. Brock and Jim close with practical takeaways for producers navigating a turbulent market: watch your basis, don't panic on board weakness alone, and keep an eye on how tightening pasture conditions could reshape calf supplies heading into next year.

Cattle futures just hit their lowest close since March, and it's not from one bad day — it's three straight sessions of chart-driven selling stacked on weak cash trade and sagging wholesale beef prices. Brock and Jim break down why the board lost roughly eight dollars in under a month, and why hog futures climbing at the same time proves this is a cattle-specific correction, not a broad protein demand collapse. This week's Cattle Market Guys episode opens with a full data snapshot: five-hundred to five-forty-nine weight steers show a clear three-week price slide, while six-hundred to six-forty-nine weight cattle have actually gained ground over the past month despite recent softness. Brock and Jim dig into the forecasts for both weight classes, then pivot into a deep dive on the futures decline, referencing reporting from The Cattle Site and Beef Magazine's "Recency Bias and Things That Never Happen" piece on cowherd expansion. Jim shares a real-world comparison to the 1993 summer market pullback, offering perspective on why producers shouldn't panic on chart-driven weakness — but shouldn't ignore it either. The episode closes with a look at regulatory and land-use pressures facing ranchers, including a New Zealand study linking farm nitrate pollution to premature births even below legal limits, the FAO's involvement in Canada's International Year of Rangelands tour, and a third, more sobering land-use story. It's a wide-ranging Friday wrap covering cash cattle prices, futures trends, cattle market analysis, and the policy conversations shaping the beef industry heading into next week.

Cash cattle prices tumbled seven dollars this week, but feeder and stocker marketings ran nearly 40% below the three-year average—creating the kind of thin, choppy market that can swing hard in either direction. Add in a stunning USDA export data error that slashed beef sales figures by 90%, and producers have a lot to untangle this week. Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures data, noting a split market where lighter steers are sliding while heavier weights creep up. They dig into why marketings are running so far below normal, with Jim drawing parallels to the 1996 drought-driven liquidation in West Texas and sharing a firsthand story about how timing flexibility made a real difference in per-head pricing. The conversation also covers the July WASDE report's surprisingly bullish Q3 revision despite short-term cash weakness. On the trade front, they unpack USDA's dramatic export data correction involving Chile and Italy, rising beef imports, and what this means for trust in federal reporting. A look at South Africa's shifting FMD vaccine policy highlights how global disease management ties into U.S. export competitiveness. Finally, Brock and Jim cover USDA's expanded metals testing requirements taking effect July 20th and the $80 million in federal support aimed at helping small processors manage rising compliance costs.

Cattle inventories just hit their lowest levels since the 1950s, yet Walmart slashed ground beef prices 12% after political pressure — and cattle futures have now fallen for seven straight sessions. Brock and Jim break down how tight supply, soft retail pricing, and volatile feed costs are colliding to create a confusing market picture for producers heading into summer. In this Friday wrap for the week of July 10th, Brock and Jim dig into feeder cattle price data across weight classes, noting strength in the 600-649 category alongside softening in lighter 500-549 weight steers. They unpack the disconnect between Walmart's politically-driven price cut and actual farm-gate values, referencing reporting from the Cattle Site, Beef Magazine, and CoBank showing beef demand staying firm despite broader food inflation. Jim draws on his 1996 experience with feedyard margins during a corn price spike to explain why today's combination of falling cattle futures and rising feed grain costs demands caution on placements. The episode closes with a look at global trade dynamics, including rising US beef export value despite lower volume, improving access in Taiwan and Korea, and Brazil's record beef export growth capturing Chinese demand. Jim recalls the 2003 BSE case and its impact on export markets as a warning against assuming trade access stays constant. Domestic processing expansion news rounds out a discussion on quality, competition, and long-term market resilience in the cattle industry.

Packer losses have deepened to a staggering $295 per head as corn futures surge and boxed beef values soften — and that squeeze from both directions is putting hedging strategy front and center for cattle producers right now. Meanwhile, Brazil just raised its full-year trade surplus forecast to $90 billion, fueled by record beef exports that are eating into US market share. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle cash prices, including five to six weight steers holding steady near $457 per hundredweight and six-weight steers easing to $415.87. They dig into live cattle futures volatility tied to rising corn costs and softening cash trade, with Jim drawing on his 1996 experience with margin calls and over-hedged positions to explain why liquidity matters as much as price protection. The conversation then shifts to global beef trade, covering Brazil's record export surge, tightening antimicrobial inspection rules ahead of an EU deadline, and a political push to suspend proposed US tariffs tied to Brazil's October election. Domestic policy developments, including new tariff-rate quota legislation for imported beef, cattle, and lamb, round out the trade discussion. Finally, Brock and Jim examine the tightening US cattle supply picture, with total beef production projected down 4.5 to 5 percent year-over-year and cold storage reserves shrinking. Drawing parallels to the mid-1990s herd liquidation era, they explain why today's tight supply numbers may not fully hit cash prices for months, and why producers should be watching futures, trade, and production trends together rather than in isolation.

The Trump administration just dropped a bombshell: USMCA will not be extended, triggering a 10-year wind-down clock that has farm groups sounding alarms across the agricultural sector. With feeder cattle prices hitting historic highs and the cattle herd now the tightest since the 1950s, this week's Cattle Market Guys breaks down why the market is bracing for impact before the data even arrives. Brock and Jim open with a deep look at current feeder steer pricing, showing steady climbs across weight classes and a sharp jump in futures contracts over just five weeks. They then dive into the USMCA wind-down announcement, examining the fractured US-Mexico-Canada dynamics and new tariff-rate quota legislation targeting live cattle, beef, and lamb imports. Jim draws a compelling parallel to the 1994 NAFTA rollout, reminding producers that fear-driven herd decisions often backfire before real trade data emerges. The second half tackles supply fundamentals, unpacking the June Cattle on Feed report showing feedlot inventories rising for a second straight month, even as total beef production is projected to fall 4.5-5% in 2026. Brock and Jim explain why more cattle in feedlots doesn't mean more beef supply, and how the tightest cattle herd since the 1950s is squeezing everyone from jerky producers to retail meat counters. It's a data-driven, historically grounded conversation about navigating uncertainty without panic—essential listening for cattle producers watching both trade policy and herd economics collide this summer.

The U.S. and Mexico just opened a $50 million sterile fly facility in Chiapas capable of producing 100 million flies per week — and it may be the most important biosecurity development for cattle producers in years. New World screwworm cases are creeping north, and this is the primary weapon to push the eradication line back. Jim shares firsthand history from the original eradication effort that puts the stakes in sharp relief. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 30, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle price data, with 600-649 pound steers sitting at $413.01/cwt and lighter weights continuing to outperform at $454.45/cwt — but near-term forecasts point to softening ahead. The basis gap between cash and front-month futures at $368.94 is a signal producers shouldn't ignore. The episode also covers a coalition of 65 groups petitioning the FDA to end routine antibiotic use in livestock, a promising new BRD diagnostic tool out of Texas A&M, and heat stress production losses hitting European farmers. On the trade front, Australia has already filled its annual Chinese beef quota before mid-year, Senator Bill Cassidy has introduced tariff-rate quota legislation aimed at protecting domestic producers, and U.S. beef exports to Mexico show a soft April but a constructive year-to-date picture overall.