The Event Horizon Podcast

Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets. Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals. Show notes: Kalshi on recent enforcement actions Novig and Sydney Sweeney DraftKings ads directly referring to Kalshi Sports is still pretty big! NFL letter to prediction markets If you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review . Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits. Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product. Show notes: New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS. Kalshi gets US Open deal. Injury markets. Kalshi bans George Santos. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets. Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision: - Event Horizon - InGame - Nevada reacts : ““We are pleased with the Ninth Circuit’s ruling today in favor of Nevada. This completely vindicates what we have been saying all along. This is sports betting and needs to be properly regulated by the state. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has been regulating gaming in the state of Nevada for more than 70 years in accordance with the highest standards and best practices. We will continue to vigorously enforce Nevada law to safeguard gaming in our state,” stated Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer .“Prediction markets offering sports-event contracts constitute gambling and must comply with Nevada’s gaming laws and regulatory framework. I commend Chairman Dreitzer and the Nevada Gaming Control Board for their diligent work to uphold Nevada’s longstanding regulatory standards, safeguard the integrity of our gaming industry, and ensure the public can continue to have confidence in its oversight,” said Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo . The rest: - Clash Between Prediction Markets and States Sets Off a Furious Political Battle (New York Times) : “In early March, Donald Trump Jr. made a pitch to a crowd of Republican state attorneys general who had gathered for a three-day retreat at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in New Orleans. …”“Sitting onstage for a question-and-answer session with Montana’s attorney general, Mr. Trump suggested that state leaders were being led astray by a ‘vested interest’ — gambling firms that wanted to protect their ‘monopolies’ by attacking prediction markets, four people familiar with his remarks said. In reality, he said, the markets already had robust oversight, describing them as a sophisticated financial tool overseen by federal officials, not state attorneys general.” -CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced an order filing and settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment in order to trade event contracts (i.e., swaps) on a prediction market platform for his personal benefit. Under the order, Perez must disgorge the profits he made from his unlawful trading totaling $107,539.02 and pay a civil monetary penalty of $65,000, representing a substantial discount under the Division of Enforcement’s new cooperation advisory because of Perez’s exemplary cooperation with the CFTC. - LSU Football Coach Kiffin’s Bonuses Hedged Using $3 Million Kalshi Trades Placed By Outside Firm (InGame) : “A third party helping Louisiana State University hedge against potential bonus payments to football coach Lane Kiffin used bets on the team’s performance on Kalshi to offset exposure. Similar trades were placed last month on South Carolina’s football team, again from a third party rather than the university, though the exact risk being hedged for those trades is less clear. Two weeks ago, five ‘block’ trades — trades negotiated off exchange — were placed on LSU to have a successful college football season, worth a combined $3 million.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets. Subscribe now Show notes: The CFTC meeting A Republican problem for prediction markets? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act. Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings: Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of news around stuff other than sports event contracts! Show notes: FlightAware vs. Kalshi Sports mention markets Hedging on goat herding! A crazy Wisconsin primary Novig responsible trading The CFTC was busy: An emergency order Reining in incentives program American odds go bye-bye? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets. To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as ‘ghastly’ : “‘What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets,’ said Pederson, who is a humanities professor at Boston University.” “Bettors will make or lose money based on the success or failure of a clinical trial, a situation Pederson views as horrific.” I also sat down with ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen (36-minute mark) to talk about the company’s journey to becoming a federally regulated exchange. Show notes: Wildfire betting: https://www.merkley.senate.gov/merkley-padilla-shaheen-schiff-rosen-cortez-masto-heinrich-wyden-klobuchar-cftc-must-rein-in-wildfire-bets-on-prediction-markets/ Betting on drug trials: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/business/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-drugs.html DraftKings Q2: https://www.ingame.com/overlap-draftkings-sportsbook-kalshi-users/ Flutter Q2: https://www.ingame.com/fanduel-flutter-earnings-call-dcm-exchange/ Polymarket + Yankees: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-becomes-an-official-prediction-market-partner-of-the-new-york-yankees-302844285.html Elections + PMs: Michigan Senate Primary Shows Kalshi, Polymarket Better Be Careful About Calling Races In November This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast. Show notes: Legal stuff, from InGame: New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion Fine Sixth Circuit Judge To Kalshi: What’s So Bad About Being Regulated By States? Prediction Markets Still Legal In Minnesota, But Kalshi At Risk Of New York Ban Nevada Says It ‘Shut Down’ Kalshi’s Sports Business, As Prediction Market Agrees To Use Third-Party Geofence The rest: News: IG Group To Acquire Underdog In Deal Worth Up To $1.3 Billion Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig Three Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 Earnings Taking Stock Of The Prediction Markets Rules Comments: CME Raises (Many) Questions, Kalshi Urges Adoptions, And Dodd Speaks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15. We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up the pod, he announced where he was going! Show notes: -Cap Space: LeBron's Decision 3.0 Is More Popular To Bet on Than Actual Basketball - The Kalshi market -Wisconsin election betting: Wisconsin Warns Election Bettors They Could Lose Their Vote, And Kalshi Isn’t Happy -The Trump teleprompter fallout (or lack thereof): Four Questions About The White House Teleprompter Operator Who Allegedly Bet On Kalshi This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story . But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast. But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record on Fridays instead of Thursday from now on. Maybe. Here was my original piece on Kalshi’s potential markets on flight cancellations: Seinfeld Episode Or Prediction Market? And here’s the update from Fortune : “Prediction market platform Kalshi has called off plans for its latest offering: Contracts that would let users wager on upcoming flight cancellations. The decision comes after social media users expressed fears that bad actors could make mischief at airports in order to collect a payout, and after popular airline-tracking service FlightAware said Kalshi could not use its data to resolve the contracts.” And more from Adjacent Press : https://press.adj.news/p/the-airportdelay-certification More on Kalshi volume: https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-2-billion-volume/ https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/kalshi-is-crushing-everyone-in-app-downloads Robinhood/Rothera volume: https://www.ingame.com/robinhood-rothera-volume-kalshi/ What the hell is going on in Michigan? https://www.ingame.com/cftc-blocks-kalshi-voids/ Congressional happenings Hearing https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/news-congress-to-hold-prediction Kalshi CEO on the Hill for new bill https://gottheimer.house.gov/posts/release-to-protect-children-gottheimer-introduces-new-bipartisan-bill-requiring-facial-recognition-age-verification-for-online-sportsbooks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense. First, this at The Event Horizon https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-artificial-spotify-streams-broke-kalshi-market Here’s from a story on Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/spotify-streaming-manipulation-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi/ This week, the situation hit a boiling point when the song “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd surged to number one on a Spotify chart. In a series of X posts, Davies outlined his suspected culprit: “botting,” or scammers who purchase bots to juice streaming numbers. Davies argued that prediction market traders were botting the charts to influence the outcome of related events contracts. Todd’s song was such an underdog that it wasn’t even listed as an option on Polymarket: “Looking at the dataset of Sunday to Monday changes, it was a 11.24 sigma event, or a roughly 1 in 77 octillion chance of happening randomly,” Davies wrote. - Things start getting serious for Kalshi and everyone else in Michigan: https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-sports-contracts-banned-michigan/ - Everything else in US is a rounding error: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-much-kalshi-trading-is-there-outside-of-sports This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently? Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, today announced a strategic branding and product partnership with Kalshi, the world’s leading prediction market exchange. This collaboration will expand prediction markets globally, providing billions of fans with new ways to engage with the world’s biggest sporting event. Heading into the knockout stage, Kalshi will be co-branded alongside ADI Predictstreet in stadium, TV, and online placements. Longer term, Kalshi will provide market expansion to ADI Predictstreet’s platform. In the first two weeks of World Cup™ play, Kalshi has seen explosive growth. Last week, it experienced record daily volume of $1 billion-plus. The company has inked a number of World Cup™ focused partnerships including with the Argentine Football Association (AFA,) Men in Blazers, Luka Modric, and the Croatian Football Federation. It currently controls approximately 90% of the regulated U.S. prediction market share, according to Bank of America. Dimitrios Psarrakis, Chief Executive Officer of ADI Predictstreet, said: “This is a transformational moment for our industry. Kalshi has built one of the most recognized prediction market platforms in the world, together we have an extraordinary opportunity to leverage ADI Chain’s capabilities to introduce prediction markets to millions of new users through football’s biggest stage. Our ambition extends far beyond the World Cup™. We are building the foundations for a truly global prediction market ecosystem powered by world-class technology.” Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Kalshi, said: “The World Cup™ is the largest stage for any brand. We see this as a massive opportunity to increase global awareness and fan engagement.” • A New York Times story earlier in the morning said: “Kalshi is expected to announce on Friday that it has become an official partner of FIFA, thanks to a branding and product deal with the World Cup’s existing prediction market partner, the little-known platform ADI Predictstreet.” • Kalshi posted and then deleted that the deal was with FIFA: https://x.com/DustinGouker/status/2070522854945472693?s=20 • More context: https://x.com/BenHorney/status/2070516886798844385?s=20 • Update on Kalshi volume and revenue. ___ Polymarket US Is Self-Certifying ’Next Team’ Markets, Including High School Recruits Signing With Colleges : Update: Polymarket tells me that it is withdrawing the self-certification for NCAA “next team” markets. Polymarket US is self-certifying player movement markets for a number of major team sports. That would seem to indicate that Major League Baseball — which is a partner of Polymarket — could be OK with that type of market. And Polymarket could also allow markets on high school players committing to college programs, per new filings. ___ DraftKings Launches Proprietary Exchange to Bolster Differentiated Predictions Experience (press release): DraftKings Inc. today announced the launch of its proprietary prediction markets exchange, DKeX, with integration into the unified DraftKings: Sports & Casino app, further advancing the DraftKings Predictions experience. The launch positions the Company to innovate more rapidly through greater ownership over content depth, operating economics, and the end-to-end customer experience. DKeX marks the next phase in DraftKings’ prediction markets evolution, strengthening its ability to deliver differentiated sports experiences across the country alongside its leading sportsbook. “DraftKings is at its best when building innovative platforms that bring together technology, customer focus, and world-class execution to shape the future of sports engagement,” said Jason Robins, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of DraftKings . “The momentum we’ve seen on DraftKings Predictions in recent months reflects the significant progress we’ve made in delivering a more seamless and connected experience for sports fans. DKeX provides a vertically integrated foundation for DraftKings Predictions, strengthening our prediction markets content and capabilities, giving us greater control over the technology that powers those offerings, and enabling us to move faster as we continue enhancing our unified app.” The launch of DKeX comes as DraftKings Predictions continues rapid growth, with approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer volume and approximately $11.3 billion in annualized total trading volume for the week ended June 21 . The Company expects continued growth throughout July, driven by ongoing enhancements to the platform, growing adoption of new event contracts and features such as combinations, and heightened interest surrounding the World Cup. Since launching in mid-May, more than 30% of customers have used combinations, which allow multiple individual contracts to be bundled into a single position, highlighting strong demand for a customizable, sports-first prediction markets experience. “The launch of DKeX and its integration into our unified app is a major step forward in delivering a best-in-class customer experience in sports nationwide,” said Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, DraftKings Senior Vice President and General Manager of Prediction Markets . “The pace of development across Predictions has been substantial, from expanding our event contract offerings to introducing key features like combos, which customers have quickly embraced. DKeX is the latest milestone in that progression and creates new opportunities to further expand the offering ahead of some of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.” As part of DraftKings’ all-in-one platform strategy, DraftKings Predictions continues to evolve within the unified app. The DraftKings Sports experience brings sports betting and prediction market trading together with sportsbook offerings and/or sports event contracts available based on customer location. Recent enhancements include Predictions Sports Combos, expanded pre-game and in-play stats, dedicated hubs for major events such as the World Cup, and an always-on Live tab that surfaces real-time sporting events, giving customers more opportunities to engage with key moments as they unfold. DraftKings also enhanced its Responsible Engagement tools through My Budget and Controls, an in-app destination for managing deposit limits and personalized activity alerts. DraftKings Predictions has also expanded with additional event contract offerings, including MLB player and futures contracts, No Runs First Inning (NRFI) baseball, broader NBA and NHL selections, and international sports. The DraftKings Sports experience is available nationally, including sports event contracts in 18 states. The Company applies its Responsible Engagement principles across its prediction markets offering, supporting informed participation through tools and resources, including the DraftKings Responsible Trading Center. DKeX leverages the technology and CFTC license from DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird Technologies. ___ Meta + prediction markets This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket. Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line ) ProphetX Novig Rothera WSJ on Polymarket This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry. Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment. News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13. George Santos, lol https://www.ingame.com/doj-investigating-santos-kalshi-trades/ THERE WAS A BIG ($5,000) HEDGE AT AN NYC BAR https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/mattress-mack-walked-so-kalshi-could-run Rush Street applies for a DCM https://www.ingame.com/rush-street-interactive-predictions-dcm/ Will DraftKings win in prediction markets https://closingline.substack.com/p/draftkings-ceo-i-know-whos-going-to-win-prediction-markets Here comes Robinhood/Rothera https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-world-cup-is-now-trading-on-robinhood-and-rothera/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

The Polymarket-Google fiasco: https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/ https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-trading Trump talks prediction markets https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scum Here come new exchanges: DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts/ Rothera from Robinhood... https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/robinhood-cfo-says-most-prediction-flow-moving-to-rothera When will SCOTUS tackle prediction markets? https://www.ingame.com/nj-petition-scotus-prediction-market/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Senators talking prediction markets: https://closingline.substack.com/p/senators-were-fired-up-about-prediction-markets-at-hearing Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts! https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/its-not-a-parlay-its-a-combinatoric-athletic-outcome-contract Betting On Survivor: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/stop-letting-people-bet-on-survivor This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Breaking down Kalshi retail handle and parlays: https://www.ingame.com/kalshis-true-betting-handle-draftkings-fanduel/ https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/kalshi-parlays-retail-bettor-losses-rfq-1234894471/ Polymarket US is fully live: https://www.ingame.com/polymarket-us-live-without-waitlist/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

FanDuel and DraftKings on prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-fanduel-and-prediction-markets-q1 https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-draftkings-and-genius-sports-said-about-prediction-markets-q1-earnings Parlay volume! https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/most-of-kalshis-recent-volume-growth-from-parlays Maryland and Massachusetts vs. Kalshi https://www.ingame.com/fourth-circuit-judges-wary-kalshi-maryland/ https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-massachusetts-supreme-court-questions/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Everyone had comments for the CFTC on prediction markets rule making: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-most-interesting-comments-on-cftc-rulemaking-for-prediction-markets Senate bans prediction market trading by senators: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/30/congress/new-ban-on-prediction-market-trading-00901232 Robinhood Q1 earnings and prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-robinhood-and Polymarket international to the U.S.?: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/28/polymarket-seeks-cftc-approval-to-reopen-main-exchange-to-u-s-traders This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Soldier arrested for Maduro betting: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/us-soldier-arrested-for-maduro-bets Three candidates caught betting on themselves: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/five-questions-after-kalshi-fines NY sues prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/new-york-ag-sues-coinbase-gemini This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Fox + Kalshi…but no elections? https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/fox-news-has-a-kalshi-deal White House warns people not to insider trade on PMs https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-place-bets-on-prediction-markets-amid-iran-war-3780668f NCAA is big for Kalshi https://www.ingame.com/2026-ncaa-tournament-volume-fees-kalshi/ $1.1 trillion for PMs? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/bofa-sees-a-1-1-trillion-market-for-sports-event-betting-in-us?taid=69d7b3615fcb6f0001a6e7f6&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter Kalshi wins in NJ https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/news-kalshi-wins-appeal-vs-new-jersey WTF is going on in Arizona https://www.ingame.com/federal-court-arizona-injunction-act/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com