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Published by AI Futures Project
The AI Futures Project is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization. We have developed a scenario forecast detailing the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). Based on our research, we’ve come to believe that we might cross the thresholds to AGI and ASI within just a few years—and that plausible outcomes include unprecedented concentration of power, global catastrophe, or progress and flourishing. The world is not ready for such a radical transformation. We hope to help policymakers, AI companies, AI entrepreneurs, AI safety researchers, and the general public to make sense of what’s coming, so they can take action and steer us in a better direction. In addition to our scenario forecast, we are developing policy recommendations and tabletop exercises (wargames) for decisionmakers.
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AI companies are racing to build AIs that are smarter than humans in every way. In AI 2027 , we predicted that this would result in either extinction or irreversible concentration of power. 1 Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction.
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes. (This is the short version without footnotes or expandable boxes.)
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.
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Observed September 20, 2026.
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