Curtin’s Cast

NZ in Revolt: Leadership Chaos, Fragmentation and the Election Ahead Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by Neale Jones, Managing Director of Capital and former chief of staff to Jacinda Ardern, to unpack the turmoil reshaping New Zealand politics ahead of the 7 November election. With Christopher Luxon weakened by another leadership challenge, Labour and National struggling to command much more than 30 per cent of the vote, smaller parties surging and economic discontent biting, is New Zealand entering a new era of political fragmentation? We discuss Luxon’s leadership, Chris Hipkins and Labour’s path back to government, Winston Peters and David Seymour, the strains of MMP coalition politics, the rise of Opportunity — and what New Zealand tells us about the wider global age of political disruption.

Freddie Hayward on America’s ‘Summer of Socialism’ and 9/11, 25 Years On Something unusual is stirring inside America’s Democratic Party. Across the northern summer, young progressive and democratic-socialist candidates have been knocking over establishment Democrats — raising the possibility that the American left is finally experiencing its own Tea Party or MAGA-style insurgency. Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined from Washington by Freddie Hayward, US Correspondent for the New Statesman, to discuss what he has called “America’s summer of socialism”. How socialist are these insurgents really? Are Medicare for all, stronger unions, affordable housing and higher taxes on billionaires revolutionary ideas — or simply conventional social democracy made radical by America’s unusually right-shifted political culture? They discuss the legacy of Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani and the DSA; Abdul El-Sayed’s insurgent Senate campaign; affordability and economic insecurity; organised labour and the possibility of a new alliance between unions and the socialist left; whether progressives have moved beyond “woke 1.0”; the political impact of Gaza; and why anti-establishment movements have generally proved more successful on the right than the left across Western democracies. They also compare developments in the United States with Britain and Australia, where Labor’s relationship with organised labour and the Greens’ electoral experience point to very different paths for left-wing insurgent politics. Finally, with America approaching the 25th anniversary of September 11, Freddie reflects on how the attacks are remembered a quarter-century later — and whether 9/11 still represents a genuinely shared American national memory.

They’re the generation politics forgot — and they may now be among the angriest in Australia. Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras go deep on the latest RedBridge/AFR generational polling, which has One Nation at an extraordinary 35 per cent among Gen X, Labor on 28 and the Coalition languishing at 19. Even more strikingly, Gen X voters split almost evenly between Anthony Albanese and Pauline Hanson for preferred prime minister, while Angus Taylor trails far behind. Why is a generation raised through recession, restructuring, globalisation, deindustrialisation, the housing boom, the GFC and Covid turning away from the political establishment? Kos explores the Gen X “sandwich”: mortgages still to pay, adult children who cannot afford to leave home, ageing parents needing care and retirement no longer looking quite as secure as promised. Nick and Kos ask whether the revolt is driven by economics, disappointed expectations or a potent mix of material insecurity and cultural unease — and why Gen X appears willing to trust Labor on some services while turning overwhelmingly to One Nation on immigration. They also examine the Victorian numbers and what they mean for Ben Carroll’s Labor government, the Coalition and One Nation ahead of November. Is Gen X moving right — or has the generation that did what it was told simply become politically homeless?

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras go deep on the two latest RedBridge/AFR polls and what they reveal about the extraordinary reshaping of Australian politics: One Nation’s surge, the Coalition’s weakness, Labor’s low primary vote and whether voters are moving towards a durable three-bloc system or simply renting their votes in protest. They also unpack Melongate and what the episode says about political outrage, media consumption and where Australians are actually getting their news. Then it’s Victoria. With Ben Carroll attempting to reset Labor around working people, cost of living and services, can he turn around the government’s fortunes before November? Is Jess Wilson becoming a credible change agent? And can One Nation really sustain a 20-plus primary vote when voters have to choose an actual government?

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth is joined by award-winning historian Ross McMullin, author of the definitive history of the Australian Labor Party, The Light on the Hill. Thirty-five years after its original publication, McMullin has returned to his landmark work, updating Labor’s extraordinary story through Keating, Rudd, Gillard and the leadership wars to Anthony Albanese’s historic 2025 victory. What has changed about Labor — and what has endured across 135 years? Where do Keating and Albanese sit in the Labor pantheon? What was the party’s greatest mistake? And who are the underrated, overrated and forgotten characters of Labor history? A fascinating long-form conversation about Labor, history, leadership and the craft of writing political history.

This week on Curtin's Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by one of Australia's foremost political journalists and historians, Paul Kelly, Paul Kelly, Editor-at-Large, The Australian and author of the new book, The Twilight of Exceptionalism: The Liberal and Conservative Era (Melbourne University Publishing). Has Australia entered a fundamentally new political era? Why has reform become so difficult? What explains the decline of trust in institutions, the fragmentation of politics, and the rise of populism? The conversation explores: The end of Australia's "exceptional" political era Why the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments failed The future of the Liberal Party, Hansonism and the Teals Anthony Albanese, Labor and the coming Victorian election The changing nature of political leadership and journalism Whether Australian democracy can rediscover its reforming spirit A wide-ranging discussion on Australia's past, present and future with one of the country's leading political thinkers. Buy Paul's book here: https://www.mup.com.au/books/the-twilight-of-exceptionalism/9780522882339

🚨 WE'RE BACK! Curtin's Cast returns – EARLY RELEASE 🎙️ Victoria's election campaign has just been blown wide open. In a dramatic day of escalating political tension, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll has advised Premier Jacinta Allan that he intends to be a candidate for the Labor leadership should a spill occur. With just four months until polling day, is Victoria now heading towards both an election and a Labor leadership crisis? In Episode 63, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras break down: 🔴 The latest Victorian polling 📉 Labor's deteriorating position ⚠️ The leadership speculation engulfing Spring Street 📈 One Nation's extraordinary surge and whether it holds 🔵 Why the Liberals still can't put the election away 🇦🇺 A quick federal polling check-in and what it means for Anthony Albanese This is one of the most timely Curtin's Cast episodes we've recorded. 🎧 Listen wherever you get your podcasts. #CurtinsCast #VicPol #SpringSt #AusPol #VictorianElection #Labor #OneNation #Polling #Politics

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by acclaimed author, pianist and incoming ANAM Artistic Director Anna Goldsworthy to discuss her new Quarterly Essay, The God We Made: The Threat and Promise of Artificial Intelligence out now with Schwartz Media Is AI another technological revolution, or something far more profound? What remains uniquely human in an age of machines? Why do we still crave imperfection, authenticity and live experience? And are we repeating the mistakes we made with the industrial revolution and social media? From music, art and education to work, politics and existential risk, this wide-ranging conversation explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping our world — and what it means to remain human within it. Listen wherever you get your podcast goodies!

Could the 2026 Victorian election mark the beginning of the end of Australia's century-old two-party system? One Nation is now leading or tied in most national polls. Leadership whispers around Victorian Labor Premier Jacinta Allan are growing. But is this bigger than one premier — or even one party? On Curtin's Cast Episode 61 Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack: 🔥 Why replacing leaders won't stop deeper political forces 📊 What Redbridge modelling reveals about Labor & Coalition heartland seats 🗳️ Why One Nation's rise threatens BOTH major parties 💥 Why moral denunciation alone won't reconnect voters 🚨 If Victoria can produce a One Nation breakthrough, nowhere in Australia is immune. Episode 61 of Curtin's Cast is out now! 🎧

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth sits down with political strategist and campaigner Ed Coper, author of the new book Angertainment: How Social Media Outrage Ruined Everything. Over more than two decades, Ed has worked with an extraordinary range of political, civic and business leaders and movements, from Malala Yousafzai and Richard Branson to trade unions, climate campaigns, advocacy organisations and the Teal independents. He was also part of the team that helped build GetUp into one of Australia's most influential grassroots campaigning organisations. In this conversation, Nick and Ed explore how social media platforms, algorithms and the attention economy have transformed politics, media and public life, rewarding outrage over persuasion and division over dialogue. They discuss: • What exactly is “angertainment” and why outrage has become a business model; • Whether both Left and Right are vulnerable to the attention economy; • Young men, identity, Andrew Tate and algorithmic rabbit holes; • Which politicians understand social media best — and why; Can democracy survive the age of angertainment? Ed Coper joins Curtin’s Cast to unpack one of the defining political and cultural challenges of our time. Buy Ed's book here: https://www.readings.com.au/product/9781761636691/angertainment--ed-coper--2026--9781761636691

One Nation is now Australia's most popular political party. Pauline Hanson is Australia's most popular political leader. And new RedBridge–Accent MRP modelling suggests the Australian political system may be fragmenting faster than either major party understands. This week on Curtin's Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack the extraordinary polling behind One Nation's rise, the collapse of traditional party loyalties, and what it means for Labor, the Coalition and Australia's political future. Is this simply another protest vote, or are we witnessing the biggest political realignment in modern Australian history? They explore why millions of Australians feel they're getting poorer in silence, how housing insecurity and falling living standards are reshaping political behaviour, why Labor's budget reforms have produced such a complicated reaction, and why the Coalition is failing to benefit from Labor's losses. Plus: could Pauline Hanson really become prime minister? What would need to happen for One Nation to become a governing force? And is Victoria about to provide a preview of Australia's fragmented political future? A provocative conversation about economic insecurity, political dealignment and realignment, institutional distrust and the forces reshaping Australian democracy. Check out Episode 59 via Apple, Spotify and Youtube

No Kos this week — but Nick Dyrenfurth is joined by one of Australia’s leading public intellectuals and scholars of political leadership, Professor Paul Strangio, to unpack one of the defining political questions of our age: Why has democratic politics become so chaotic — and why has Australia, so far at least, resisted full-scale democratic rupture? Drawing on Paul Strangio’s new book ‘The Alchemy of Leadership: Seven Australian Prime Ministers in a Turbulent Twenty-First Century’ (Melbourne University Publishing), this wide-ranging conversation explores the collapse of old political loyalties, revolving-door prime ministers, media fragmentation, hyper-politics, populism, culture wars and the emotional exhaustion now embedded in modern democratic life. From Howard, Rudd and Gillard to Abbott, Morrison, Albanese and the post-2025 political landscape, Nick and Paul examine how leadership itself has changed in the twenty-first century — and whether traditional democratic authority can still survive in the age of algorithms, permanent campaigning and anti-politics. They discuss: Why Australian politics became permanently unstable after 2007 John Howard’s role in “smuggling” conservative populism into the mainstream Pauline Hanson, Trumpism and why Australia avoided full MAGA-style collapse Listen now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube.

Is Australian politics finally exiting the dead zone of managerialism and re-entering an era of genuine ideological conflict? In Episode 57 of Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Australia’s "revered pollster” Kos Samaras unpack the political shockwaves from Labor’s 2026 budget — and why much of the legacy media may be completely misunderstanding what is happening. As newspapers scream “political suicide” and compare the budget to the disastrous 2014 Hockey Budget, Nick and Kos explore why this is not 2001 or 2004 politics anymore. Millennials and Gen Z do not expect miracles — they want proof governments are finally willing to “touch the architecture” on housing, tax and intergenerational fairness. Nick and Kos dive deep into: why Labor now openly sees under-45s as its electoral base the collapse of the old Howard-era political settlement how this is the first serious reform battle in decades Angus Taylor’s high-risk budget reply and the risks of chasing Pauline Hanson why the Coalition’s proposal to strip non-citizens of welfare, NDIS and other benefits could detonate support among Chinese-Australian households how “household voting” works politically in migrant communities and why anti-Dan Andrews politics is a dead-end for the Victorian Libs Plus: Kos hints at a bombshell new Redbridge/Australian Financial Review poll, predictions on Andrew Hastie and November's Victorian state election

For years politics and media have obsessed over angry young men, the manosphere and figures like Andrew Tate. But what if the bigger political story is the radicalisation — and growing pessimism — of ‘Angry Young Women’? This week Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by New Statesman staff writer Emily Lawford to discuss her major recent cover story on the rise of the Gen Z “femosphere” and the widening political divide between young men and women. They discuss: ▪️ How young women are becoming more politically engaged, but more anxious and pessimistic ▪️ Why these young women are so down on young men, capitalism and animated by issues like Gaza ▪️ The rise of online feminist identity and activism ▪️ TikTok, social media and radicalisation pathways ▪️ Why young men and women are increasingly diverging politically ▪️ The impact on relationships, trust and social cohesion ▪️ What this means for Labor, the Greens and the future of democratic politics Featuring Australian polling and focus-group insights from Kos Samaras and the team at RedBridge. A serious conversation about one of the biggest — and least understood — political shifts reshaping the Anglosphere. Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.

One year on from the 2025 federal election, the political landscape is shifting again — and not in ways either major legacy party can fully control. In this episode, Kos Samaras and Nick Dyrenfurth unpack the latest RedBridge/Accent/AFR polling and the fallout from the Nepean by-election. Has One Nation’s surge peaked? And is there a “Trump dump” effect — where getting too close to Trump and MAGA begins to turn voters off? Nick and Kos also explore Pauline Hanson’s emerging dilemma: a choice between battlers and billionaires, as her party draws support from working Australians while benefiting from the backing of right-wing figures like Gina Rinehart. We also preview the looming Farrer by-election and examine what Nepean signals for both Labor and the Liberals — and the Victorian election ahead.

In this episode, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras break down why AI anxiety is already political — not hypothetical — and why governments are at risk of repeating the biggest mistake of the last economic transition. We’ve seen this movie before. It didn’t end well. Over 70% of Australians think AI will cost jobs — and this time, the fear hits before the impact. Based off new Redbridge polling and the John Curtin Research Centre's new policy report, 'For All of Us: Making Artificial Intelligence Work for Working People', the argument is simple: if workers don’t share in the gains, they won’t accept the change. And if they don’t accept it, they’ll vote against it.

On this episode, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by leading scholars of nationalism and European politics expert Associate Professor Ben Wellings (Monash University) to unpack the forces reshaping the UK and Europe. From the collapse of the political centre to the rise of populists and Greens alike, this is a continent in flux. We cover: ▪️ The UK’s shift to five-party fragmentation with Greens and Reform surging ▪️ Trump Bump 2.0 reshaping European politics in real time ▪️ Hungary after Orbán — liberal reset or just a populist pause? ▪️ Scottish and Welsh elections and Keir Starmer’s future Essential listening for anyone trying to understand where Western politics is heading — and why the old rules no longer apply.

Australia isn’t experiencing one populist surge, but two. In this episode of Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack new RedBridge and Accent Research polling revealing a striking political reality: under the same economic pressures, different generations are breaking in completely different directions. Among financially stressed Gen X voters, One Nation is surging. Among Gen Z voters under that same pressure, the Greens are rising just as sharply. Same system. Same frustration. Completely different political outcomes. This isn’t just volatility — it’s something deeper. The unravelling of the class-based political system that has defined Australia for more than a century. But here’s the paradox: as the system fragments, Labor remains dominant. Why? Drawing on Nick’s ‘Trump Bump 2.0’ thesis, the episode explores how voters are shifting from blaming governments to asking a different question — who looks like the “adult in the room” in an age of global instability. Nick and Kos break down: Why Australia now has two competing populisms The generational divide reshaping politics Why One Nation is insurgent but not a governing force The Coalition’s accelerating collapse How Labor is holding on amid fragmentation Is class politics is being replaced by generation and education This is a conversation about a political system coming apart — and what might replace it.

Has World War 3 already begun — just without a declaration? This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by the excellent Misha Zelinsky — Fulbright Scholar, economist, lawyer, and national security expert — to unpack a confronting idea: We may already be living through the early stages of the third great global conflict of modern times. From Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine to chaos in the Middle East and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Misha argues we are witnessing an unevenly distributed, undeclared world war — driven by a loose but dangerous alignment of authoritarian powers. On episode 51 we cover: Why historical analogies (1930s, WWI, Cold War) only go so far Why defence experts now see a 20–30% chance of global conflict this decade The rise of a “bad guys club”: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea How Western democratic deterrence failed — slowly, then all at once How modern warfare contains multiple overlapping theatres — military, economic, cyber — along with the familiar use of proxies Whether democracies are strong enough — including internally — to prevail This is a serious, sobering conversation about power, geopolitics, and whether the world has already crossed a threshold we don’t yet recognise.

This week, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by arguably Australia’s finest historian and public intellectual, Professor Frank Bongiorno, for our landmark 50th episode — and a big question at the heart of Australian politics: Is Bob Hawke really the “gold standard”… or a myth we can’t escape? Our conversation is anchored in the new book Gold Standard? Remembering the Hawke Government, edited by Frank, Carolyn Holbrook and Joshua Black — a major reassessment of Hawke’s record and reputation. We unpack: ▪️ Why Hawke still dominates how we judge governments ▪️ What actually made the Hawke model work ▪️ Why reform feels harder today ▪️ Whether Labor is misreading its own history What matters now is what Albanese Labor can realistically learn from Hawke — and what his record tells students of Australian politics about the limits and possibilities of reform today.