Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week's abbreviated Markets Happy Hour podcast we discuss the Trip to Nowhere that the on-again-off-again hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have created. Coming to you live from the mountains we reflect on inflation movements and the divergence with inflation expectations, as well as the bond market's persistent skepticism regarding Fed policy and the fiscal security of various developed markets. Equity markets have been positive for Europe year to date and earnings and revenues have been strong across the US, Europe and Asia, while venture capital returns have come under the microscope with the sale of Air Table to Bending Spoons.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss the split US Fed as they look to the next direction of interest rates. We also touch on the devastation caused by the wildfires across Europe so far this summer - and ask about their impact on policy, productivity and morale. Moving back to market forces, we remain pretty much where we were already with the state of geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz - we have had a halt to hostilities then an outbreak again. The oil price remains the most hard hit asset and has swung around fairly notably in the past week. All of this adds "fuel" to the inflation worry, which bond markets seemed to take seriously this week. The split Fed and the lack of direction - deliberately - under the new chairman left a rather sour taste, with bond market selling off. This deliberate lack of telegraphing and the Fed itself almost "Taking the Fifth" went down like a proverbial lead balloon and it is interesting to ask if there will be an erosion of trust and therefore a sundering of the link between the Fed and the bond market that it may seek to influence. Other economic vibes percolated, particularly around Europe where on the one hand old industries like German carmakers, continued to struggle, while there was some surprising pockets of growth - such as among German start-ups, while defence stocks continued to perform well. Sovereignty is increasingly a buzzword when it comes to AI - whether at a corporate level - where there is increasing reticence around giving up the proprietary layer IP to a frontier model, such as by feeding it to Claude. This was first raised by Alex Karp of Palantir, reinforced by Satya Nadella of Microsoft and now increasingly in evidence as the frontier model labs roll out everything from design studios to their own drug development channels. Sovereignty is in issue too within Europe where countries have started to reject the use of Palantir and to "urgently" seek national champions due to security concerns with the uniformity of this software. The rise of French company Mistral as an Open AI competitor, while the other French AI company ChapsVision is emerging as the European competitor to Palantir and the French authorities announced in June that they would replace Palantir after a period of transition. Equity markets were unsettled, with some chartists suggesting that the fall in the Magnificent 7 was a sign that they were losing their place in the sun, replicating how the FAANGs had fallen out of favour after 2018-2019. This rotation out of tech had favoured European indices with some commentators suggesting that they are now the anti-tech index. - is this a good or a bad thing thought? For investors seeking to diversify their portfolios it is surely a good thing - not every company will be a tech company will they? In other news prediction markets are now not optimistic on an OpenAI IPO even in 2027. Times are changing.

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus in particular on some of the other economies outside the US, with a look at how markets are reacting to the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years and ask who is the new “sick man” of Europe. Starting with what might be deemed to be inflation’s deep fake moment – the false dawn of June’s low number, we ask what is to come if oil price induced inflation breaks out in the second half of the year. The oil price is in now in overdrive, having surpassed $100 per barrel today, a sharp reaction to not only the reignition of the kinetic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, but the report of low inventories on a global scale and a clear surging demand for energy has led to expectations of higher prices by the end of December. For the moment central banks have been minded to pause on interest rate hikes – a policy across the UK, the US and the ECB for now. Within equity markets the divergence of some sectors continues – although semi-conductors have recently given back some of their gains with a sharp reversal in momentum. Financials have been surging as trading volume and corporate transactions rise, while single stock volatility continues to be an issue after the IBM earnings report. We discuss other drivers of volatility such as the increasing level of retail participation in markets which seems to lead to exacerbated momentum. This is also a development in Asia – the exception is Europe, which has low retail participation and where the equity markets represent an ever smaller percentage of global volumes. While this is a sorry indictment of the state of the equity markets in Europe, it does mean that momentum stocks have been more volatile.

This week's podcast comes from a somewhat downbeat London after the exit of the England team from the World Cup semi-final last night. It was a tough loss - particularly poignant as the atmosphere had been so electric in London last night. Starting with inflation, the surprisingly low number in June reflects the fall in the oil prices, which continues to be very leveraged to geopolitical news. This is despite expectations actually being higher - per the headline from last week. The oil price is continuing to reflect the low inventories in oil, which are noted to be historically low. The expectation around interest rates is shifting as inflation shifts downwards, although based on the oil price sensitivity this could be premature. There is a fascinating rotation taking place in equity markets - whereby small-cap companies are seeing a strong underpinning of demand - even the negative earning companies. This suggests that there is an ability to see through the hype and to identify potential in smaller companies - at their early growth stage. Other notable trends include the financial sector which has performed exceptionally well as the volume of trading has increased and M&A activity. The economic outlook is bright with a smaller expectation of US recession probability - indicating a buoyant economic outlook sparked by lower inflation and strong earnings. The sharp drop in IBM stock was a telling development - as it was clear from their statement that they were experiencing consumers making choices away from their products in favour of AI expenditure. This could be a harbinger of other choices are likely to make, indicating that pockets are not unlimited and deep. The explosion of complex derivatives, including levered ETFs on single stocks is jolting volatility in markets such as Korea, and as the chart below shows the assets in such instruments have really grown.

In this second podcast of the week we are joined by Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington. Our conversation reflects on the fact that many of the current news items seem very like "deja-vu" - the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in the oil price, the return of the heat wave. We cycle through our usual five topics and reveal some surprising points of view on inflation, as well as the risks in equity markets. The views expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. For professional/institutional investors only. Your capital may be at risk.

**NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS" This week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a little bit different . . while we still bring you a market overview together with an outstanding guest, this time we are exploring how good some of the AI models are at picking stocks, building portfolios and deciphering equity market narratives. Guest Content Disclosure: This presentation was prepared by Jens Backes, an independent guest speaker, and reflects Jens Backes' opinions as of the presentation date. Moneta has not independently verified the information presented. For educational discussion purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Jens Backes is a former McKinsey consultant with an expertise in telecoms, based in Barcelona, where we recorded this episode. Since October of last year he has challenged 3 models plus his own Alphabot JB to pick 10 stocks to generate the best total return over 5 years. The results are intriguing. From Open AI's portfolio which has gone all in on every aspect of the AI value chain, to Claude which prefers to own tolls and not the road (whatever that means) each model has gone in its own unique direction and not all have beaten the index. We discuss what we can learn from these models in terms of persistence of market narratives and the unexpected winners that can come from such a highly concentrated portfolio. All examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent all investment decisions or results achieved for client accounts. Client results will vary based on account objectives, restrictions, timing, fees, and market conditions.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by special guest Roy Kuo, CIO of Galilei Investment Office, and we dive in to a sweeping discussion across global markets. Our conversation starts with a mixed inflation number, whereby consumer prices are driving the sustained inflationary level more than the energy prices, although as one of our charts shows, gasoline prices remain far stickier and less responsive to geopolitical news around the Strait of Hormuz. While jobs numbers continue to be a little sideways, the most recent employment number reflecting a small fall off in employment numbers, but when taken alongside the previous months positive numbers the effect is expected to be marginal. Mortgage rates remain high, which will put pressure on the lower end consumer, although Roy did not expect interest rates to place a stay on economic activity. Moving to equity markets we have just closed the strongest quarters for the Nasdaq and the S&P since 2020, while in contrast Microsoft has seen its worst month since 2020, and gold has seen its worst quarter in 13 years. We turn to the conversation around the frontier models and their relative role compared to the suppliers of compute as well as the proprietary layers, and reference a somewhat memorable recent CNBC appearance of Alex Karp of Palantir who has "said the quiet part out loud" when it comes to the tense relationship between the providers of the frontier models and the companies using them and supplying their data. We finish with another reflection on Alan Greenspan, as Roy's views on his legacy have changed over the years, as he notes. He believes that the damaging effects of the moral hazard created by the Greenspan put are continuing to be felt and that it is leading to a far more risk seeking type of market behaviour.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we celebrate the life and times of Alan Greenspan, who died this week at the age of 100. His rich and multi-layered career in which he worked in multiple Presidential administrations and had a close to 19 year tenure as the 18th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The rich phenomena and quotes attributed to him deserve some analysis because of what they teach us about the fabric of markets and the tendency (or not) for patterns to repeat. The first thing to note is the collection of quotes attributed to him, which are in the slides for your viewing pleasure. He clearly relished and practiced the art of deliberate ambiguity in central bank commentary, and coined some pivotal terms, such as “irrational exuberance”. He presided over a relatively stable era, between recessions, in which the triple mandate of low unemployment, low inflation and a low 10 year yield were largely delivered, although there was a challenging “conundrum” towards the end of his tenure when the 10 year yield remained stable despite a steady bout of consecutive rate hikes (17 at one stage). He also gave rise to the Greenspan put, which may have reinforced the concept of “moral hazard” in markets – after 1998 traders believed that Greenspan would step in with monetary easing to steady the stock market. This has been hard to shake and as we saw subsequently in 2008 and during Covid institutions around the world remain ready willing and able to step in most times. The other Greenspan phenomenon was the calling of “irrational exuberance” in markets (pre LTCM in 1997) many years before markets finally cracked in 2000. This is a salutary reminder that markets can be irrational for far longer than one might think. Moving to today’s price action, the oil price has fallen to its pre-war levels, taking some of the sting out of inflation concerns and leading to a fall in the Euro as the pressure on European inflation fell. This echoes a similarly low print in the UK recently, where core inflation had actually fallen into line with the US. The expected rises in Apple device prices came to pass, reflecting a tightened supply of components and upwards pressure on prices. Bonds remained strangely sanguine, both in the UK where a change where the Prime Minister resigned on Monday and the heir apparent looked to be more to the left. The demand for SpaceX bonds was buoyant, particularly as a juicy yield had materialized and the 10 year yield fell in the US as the dollar jumped. There remains divergence in the jobs data alongside other economic indicators although the stock market has continued to sour on some of the Mag 7 stocks – now being referred to as the “Lag Seven). Another interesting data point this week has been the Korean stock market, which I refer to as potentially the “Korea in the Coalmine” as the heightened tech sensitivity in that market led to a steep sell-off by close to 10% earlier in the week. Other notable developments of the week were gold falling to an 8 month low (again reflecting the reversal of the debasement trade) and the fall in Bitcoin to below $60,000.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by two-time guest Christian Abuide, who first appeared on this podcast in April 4, 2026. We start with a comparison of today's market conditions to April 4, 2026, which is quite interesting, given how starkly the narrative has changed with respect to the economic outlook, the outlook for rates and the concerns around geopolitics. This makes us ponder whether we do get distracted by what Kevin Warsh has described as the "echoes of history" expecting historical patterns to repeat, instead of today's nuanced circumstances to play out. We discuss the inflation pattern around the world, in which in the UK core has unexpectedly slipped below that of the US. The energy and food variable may well now start to be less pressing as the Strait of Hormuz opens, but this has not deterred the ECB from its recent rate hike. Meanwhile "poker face" Kevin Warsh gave nothing away at his first press conference and this has stacked the odds of a rate hike before the end of the year. The technical factors in markets continue to affect the performance of SpaceX and other shares, while gold similarly is in decline while the dollar remains supported.

Alison Taylor is a clinical professor in the Business and Society Program at NYU Stern School of Business. She teaches ethics, sustainability, and leadership courses to undergraduate, MBA and EMBA students. She holds senior advisor roles at KKR and Unilever, is an Ethical Systems collaborator and a Senior Advisor at Enlighten. She is also LinkedIn Top Voice, a member of the FT Moral Money advisory board and the author of the successful “Higher Ground” substack. We gathered together a salon of industry participants in London to debate some of the recent topics that Alison has broached, including in particular: The Shift in workplace culture, whereby Alison argues that "Your whole self was never the point". She makes the point that leaders now more often focus on the workflow and replacement of the workflow with new production functions. This raise the question: What is the economy for? And the erosion of trust? If we do not trust people, will we trust AI? We ask if we are in a Zero Trust economy? Or a depleted trust economy? The integration of AI into our workplaces and customer experiences is having an effect on how we behave and who we trust. We ask what are the broader/long-term implications of a zero-trust economy. Moving to the question of whether good governance is still in effect - we ask whether too much complexity – e.g. AI models, quantum computing, is eroding corporate governance. Our salon saw considerable discussion around the pace of change and adoption of AI, what is being lost or threatened in this process, as well as the challenges presented to employees.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which comes to you live from Dublin, we take our usual tour through market dynamics but take a detour into nature finance, thanks to our hosts in Dublin – Gresham House Asset Management Ireland. We discuss inflation that is moving incontrovertibly in the wrong direction (citing the recent 4.2% print in the US) as well as the shifting stance of Central Banks, which is firmly towards tightening now, with Japan expected to be next and the ECB not far behind. The jobs narrative has taken a stark turn, probably as much for PR reasons as anything else – with the AI IPOs fast approaching. This sits at odds with an increasing wave of anti-AI populism as well as angst regarding AI’s march, and we turn to the Gresham House guests to reflect on whether this same angst and populism is in evidence in Ireland and the EU more generally. We discuss the grid investments in Ireland, which may be lacking, as well as the current consumer sentiment, as it relates to inflation and AI more generally. Moving then to nature finance, we discuss the enduring characteristics of this asset class, particularly around inflation participation, long term investment characteristics, low volatility and return potential. We discuss investor sentiment, where the asset class fits in the portfolio and whether this will ever be an asset class suitable for retail investors.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - the second of the week - we have a fascinating conversation with Christie Townsend, long-time institutional investor (with the X/Twitter persona @ ROI Christie) with an audience of other senior allocators in Dallas. Our conversation is wonderfully rich - starting with inflation and the divergence between Main Street and Wall Street inflation and moving to the economic vibes with a focus on Texas in particular. As a pro growth state enjoying a real estate boom, and a shift in the percentage of state revenues that come from energy, "drilling in" to the economic vibes in Texas gives an interesting insight into the US more broadly - and we speak about a two speed USA. We have a particularly vigorous debate about policy safety nets and whether there are a good or a bad thing. We reflect on the policy intervention during Covid and the price that was ultimately paid for that - the spike in inflation and the K shaped economy that resulted. We move then to equity market momentum and the impact of FOMO and the analysis of the upcoming SpaceX IPO. We end with geopolitics and the role that this is playing today.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - the first of two this week, we feature my Moneta colleague Cynthia Kirkpatrick for a "Conversation in Clayton". In beautiful Clayton we discuss our usual five lenses of the Markets Happy Hour Podcast with the perspective of Cynthia's private client base. This unique "view from Main Street" includes insights on inflation as it is being experienced by clients as well as persistently high mortgage rates (which are getting higher as the Fed seems stuck). We ask if these higher rates are deterring home sales or downsizing moves, and then look at the growing cash pile - as expressed by the soaring amount in money market funds - which now exceeds $8.3 trillion. This dry powder pile will essentially act as a backstop on markets as momentum and FOMO continue to drive flows. We do a quick consumer vibe check on AI before then moving to behavior around portfolio construction and time horizon. With thanks to JJ Kirkpatrick for the exquisite video work.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on a short - and in many places - sweltering - week in markets that was punctuated with two bombshells from Italy - the pope weighing in on AI and humanity as well as the ridiculed Ferrari EV - Luce. Clearly everyone is in a race - to the top or the bottom remains to be seen. Inflation numbers in the US continue to be challenging and we show in particular how wages have continued to be under pressure – as real wages are ticking down across the board. This is particularly linked to consumer sentiment and we know that consumer sentiment has been particularly low in the US, so this is another indicator of prolonged pain for the lower end consumer. In other “vibe” checks we reflect on a suggestion that there are now fewer policy tools – such as policy put – available to any central banks as a way to calm markets. Looking at the massive boost in market caps across the board we reflect on the three new members of the $1 trillion club in Asia – Samsung, TSMC and SK Hynix, which have represented the bulk of the recent outperformance in Asia. Other equity market datapoints are the deterioration of the S&P dividend yield as well as the equity market risk premium raising the question as to whether investors are being paid to take risk. We touch on the latest funding round secured by Anthropic as it races to the finish line to its pending IPO. The arms race for funding rounds and to IPO is clearly picking up pace, and all US stock markets have moved in a surge of momentum. We end with a reflection on emerging market risks and note how the likelihood of downward GDP revisions has gone up while both inflation and policy rates are also likely to rise. This is all linked to the outbreak of hostilities in Iran and is yet more evidence as to how Asia and Europe have seen the brunt of the current war much more than that of the US.

in this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we do a quick whistlestop tour through the traditional balanced portfolio, since it is the traditional bond and equity allocations that are attracting all of the buzz right now. From bond markets balking at rising fiscal obligations to equity markets drunk on optimism the balanced portfolio is a schizophrenic one. The oil price has been moving in opposite fashion to the newsflow regarding ships and the Strait of Hormuz and given the limited positive newsflow about two China-bound tankers making it through in the past 24 hours, the oil price fallen. Markets have responded positively to indications of a deal in the near future although little concrete has been stated. Equity markets have also been boosted by the US administration's commitment to invest in quantum computing as well as the ongoing outperformance in revenues from companies such as Nvidia. The "sprint" to IPOs by Anthropic, Open AI and SpaceX signify the desire to capture the momentum of today's heady markets. New highs have been reached in markets and investors show no signs of backing down. On the other hand bonds have rarely looked less attractive, and there has been a widespread sell-off and desire to exit duration. These two counterveiling sentiments are in a tense balance as we await further news in geopolitics.

In today’s podcast we come to you from a conference room in New York City with a two guest roster fresh off an investment committee where we all play a role. I’m delighted to be joined by Jon Chesshire of Sindia Capital and Jesus Amadeo, CFO of MDRC. We gathered to discuss our usual five topics - reflecting on the fact that New York City, like other key metropolitan centers, is experiencing a higher level of inflation than the “national” rate across the rest of the country. This underscores the unevenness with which inflation is felt, and why every institution and investor needs to factor their own inflation experience into a return assessment. We move then to discuss the new Chair at the Fed, the fact that Susan Roberts suggested that persistent inflation might lead them to hike and not cut next, and pondered whether the new Fed Chair was likely to set a new direction - with fewer updates, signalling and telegraphing of intention. We ask whether this might trouble markets that are used to a more regular diet of communication from the current Fed. Might we need to wean ourselves off the relative certainty and approach of “no surprises” that the current Fed has promoted? We ask what a U turn in bonds would look like and stress that the economic picture is unlikely to be robust enough to absorb a change of direction. Turning to jobs, we discuss the relatively strong recent jobs picture in the US and note that wages have started to decouple from deflation again - being largely flat over recent months. Moving to equity markets we examine the earnings season like no other that is continuing to stun markets, not just here but also in Asia, and markets are exhibiting a very clear rotation from the Mag 7 names into the semi-conductor picks and shovels names in order to “follow the money”. Finishing with a look outside the US we ask what opportunities exist in countries such as China, which is growing market share significantly in areas like robotics, maritime engineering and advanced railway, and where the stock market is displaying similar exuberance. Even Europe has unearthed some gems in the semi-conductor and AI adjacent space, underscoring that not all of the tech action has to happen in the US, and that there is an abundant and maybe underserved market in Europe that might need attention.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we are back in a salon-style session - this time live from Sydney on the eve of Tuesday's budget. Our special guest if Annette Beacher, investment manager of Hesta, an Australian Superannuation fund with over AUD$100 m in assets under management. This conversation is in the usual podcast format but we include data points and discussions of Australian economic fundamentals such as the recent third consecutive rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia, and the inflation and led to it. We discuss the unique structure of the housing market here, the role it plays for consumers, and the state of the jobs market. We spend some time on the Superannuation system and the split of assets that most clients experience, the underpinning demand for Australian equities and the need to seek return abroad too, given the rising volume of assets in the mandated system. After a breakdown of the drivers of the Australian equity market snd a comparison with the AI and tech narrative driving the US indices we bring things back to local again by looking at the likeky contents of the next day's budget.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist of Man Group. a global alternative investment manager. In this role, she provides views and insights on the economy and markets.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which we held "salon style" in Singapore with a diverse group of guests, we bring you highlights from our multi-faceted discussion. First we track the spread of the inflation epidemic into this part of the world - note the divergence from economies with inflation at a six year high (Vietnam) and economies where inflation has succumbed to longer term deflationary expectations - as in Japan. We track the inflationary changes - which are impacting the region - in some areas more than others and ask whether affordability is an issue. This leads to a question as to whether an markets have the same K shape as the US market, and whether inequality is likely to persist and impact consumer demand – just as in the US a small percentage of the population (10%) are responsible for 50% of the consumer spending. We discuss recent equity market volatility and the new highs just reached, then assess the latest news regarding GameStop and E-Bay, as well as the consulting ventured being pursued separatelyThen we move to what investors are underestimating about this region - and the swiftness and dynamism behind AI rollouts, healthcare advances, and building from the ground up particularly in China are noted. The recent blocking of Meta's acquisition of Manus highlights the perceived threats to national security as well as IP and the protectionist responses that this is inducing.

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we reflect on more bumper earnings from tech stocks, discuss the semi-conductor sector that is making huge strides as demand seems to be totally inelastic and in fact growing, despite price rises. We ask whether it will soon be time to “sell in May and go away”? Starting with inflation it is interesting to reflect on how much sentiment and expectations affect the ultimate outcome – in Japan for example the memory of an extended inflationary era is quite raw, so there even though inflation briefly got over 2% it is already more subdued. The Iran war has had the opposite effect on European inflation expectations which are already heading towards 2.75% for the end of the year, having been lower for some time. In terms of the rising components of inflation food and oil prices continue to be high. The Fed guard will officially change soon but the outgoing Chair, Jerome Powell is staying on as a Governor, which introduces some stability. Expectations have sharply turned around in terms of rate cuts with a minority now expecting rate hikes this year. The fact that the Fed described inflation as “misbehaving” is rue to have struck a chord. Equity markets remain buoyed by solid earnings and certain sectors like semi-conductors in particular which are experiencing a meteoric rise quite similar to pre-1999. Other factors of interest include the weak performance of the Bill Ackman “best ideas” fund and the fact that Ken Griffin thinks that retail investors had a poor understanding of private credit. While this may be true, it is more likely the case that their advisors lost conviction, which raises a more troubling possibility that these investments were not taking place with the right level of portfolio planning.