The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons

It's budget season, that dreaded time of year when owners and operators attempt to predict the future --forecasting revenue and expenses for 2027. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons and special guest Lee Everett (head of research and strategy at Cortland, a top 10 apartment owner) seek to lend a helping hand. Jay and Lee talk about how revenue and expense trends could play out in the year ahead, and how those trends may differ by market and by asset class. What supply-heavy markets might surprise on the upside? Which could be laggards? Will rising consumer inflation end up impacting operating expenses, reversing two years of steadier expense trends? Additionally, Jay shares why you might expect better performance from Class A and B+ properties than from Class C, at least in the Sun Belt and Mountain states. Also in this week's episode, Jay makes the case for why rent concessions may not just "burn off" as many operators may want to see or expect to see in 2027, even as vacancy rates improve.

It's Episode 100 of The Rent Roll, and we're bringing back one of our most popular guests — James Ray of MetLife and CRE Analyst — to take on the big questions about the cycle ahead. How does distress compare to 2008? Why will NOI matter more than appreciation in the next cycle, and how do investors plan accordingly? How does increased regulatory risk impact allocations toward multifamily, single-family rentals and build-to-rent? When will institutions rebalance toward equity strategies after several years focused on private credit? What impact is AI having? And much more. Additionally, in this week's version of "The Complaints Department" segment, Jay addresses the most common complaint he hears. Jay also brings back other recurring segments like Rental Housing Trivia, In the News, Here's a Chart and Good Question.

Rent affordability is maybe the most misunderstood topic in housing — with bad takes commonly held among investors and policymakers and other stakeholders. In this episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down fact versus fiction on the big topic of rent affordability. In particular, Jay explains why this topic is a prime example of how averages can be misleading. The data shows rent affordability is a deeply bifurcated issue where two seemingly conflicting trends can both be true: We have a severe shortage of low-income rental housing for those who need it, while at the same time we have had ample demand for higher-rent apartments and single-family rentals from renters who can easily afford it. Jay breaks down the data to show the facts, and offer up practical implications investors, developers, operators, lenders, policymakers and reporters. Additionally, for today's conversation, Jay welcomes in Witten Advisors CEO Ryan Davis, whose original research into the Census renter affordability data sheds light on how most researchers and advocates tend to oversimplify what is a very nuanced and bifurcated topic. Ryan shares why most researchers report affordability trends that don't align with private-sector data, and shows why t's important to look past headline narratives and study the Census data more deeply. Also in this episode, Jay breaks down the latest news articles touching on multifamily and SFR trends, and he also responds to a big complaint from the prior week's episode.

Description: JPMorgan just announced one of the biggest-ever bets on housing, committing $750 billion over the next decade, and rental housing plays a big role in that bet. Two top executives from JPMorganChase's commercial banking group, John Hofmann and Karen Purcell, join with rental housing economist Jay Parsons to take us inside the bank's strategy. How does the bank see market-rate apartments versus affordable housing? Preservation versus development? And much more. Additionally, amidst more headlines trumpeting distress in the multifamily sector, Jay asks John and Karen about how JPMorgan sees the health of the apartment debt market today, as well as the implications of rising competition from debt funds. Also in this week's episode, Jay shares the latest data on multifamily capital markets and loan originations, highlighting how 2026 is on track to be the second-highest year on record for multifamily debt originations. Additionally, Jay breaks down another busy week of news headlines impacting apartments and single-family rentals, including the completion of the AvalonBay/Equity Residential merger (say hello to Vivmark Residential), the surprising growth from a smaller upstart REIT and a questionable headline from CNBC's interview with Invitation Homes.

With new legislation transforming the single-family rental market into a more highly regulated industry, could institutional investors like Pretium (as well as REITs like AMH and Invitation Homes) stand to benefit? It won't be cheap or easy or painless, but larger players may have the scale and the stomach for a new, landmine-filled environment of SFR — and that could lead to acquisition opportunities with smaller companies suddenly branded as "institutional" by the new ROAD to Housing Act. Pretium, the nation's second-largest SFR owner through its Progress Residential brand, sees such opportunities, as co-president Stephen Scherr tells us on this episode of The Rent Roll. Additionally, rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares his top 5 takeaways from the SFR REITs' earnings calls that just wrapped up — touching on similar themes related to ROAD, as well as slowly improving fundamentals and improving cost pressures and stock buybacks. Additionally, in this week's In the News segment, Jay shares three recent headlines that challenge mainstream thinking on the role of large investors in pushing market rents.

It's that time of quarter: Earnings call season. Rental housing economist digs through Q2 2026 earnings call from the apartment REITs and shares his top five takeaways and what they mean for the multifamily industry. Jay shares a previously undisclosed story of how the Equity Residential and AvalonBay merger came together, which — plot twist — included a third wheel. Jay also shares color from the REITs on the Sun Belt recovery and on continued strength in the San Francisco Bay Area. Other highlights include some perhaps counterintuitive trends in operating expenses and in renter financial health, both of which are trending more favorably than narratives might suggest. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in the new CEO of Camden apartment REIT, Alex Jessett. Jay and Alex talk about Alex's 27-year career at Camden leading up to his new role as CEO, the rent recovery in the Sun Belt, Camden's exit from California, and the future of the REIT business as the number of REIT competitors continues to shrink. Additionally, Jay shares the latest headlines touching on rental housing this week, as well as another round of Rental Housing Trivia plus his favorite question asked by a REIT analyst this quarter.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons speaks with the outgoing head of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Assistant Secretary for Housing at HUD, Frank Cassidy. Jay and Frank discuss the significance (and specifics) of cutting red tape to improve supply and liquidity in the multifamily housing market, as well as the ups and downs of working as a political appointee in Washington. And what more can we expect from FHA and HUD to help streamline housing supply, particularly for affordable housing? Additionally, in this week's "Here's a Chart" segment, Jay shares the latest data on apartment lease-up volumes, and what impact they're having on the rent recovery as well as the next generation of new development. The impact is nowhere near evenly distributed across the country, and Jay highlights which markets are ahead (and behind) the pack. Jay also breaks down the latest headlines in rental housing, including a data-heavy article from The Wall Street Journal looking at the impact of high-income renters in New York City's rent stabilized apartment market.

Outside of the economy, no factor shapes rental housing demand more than demographics. What are the latest trends shaping demand for apartments and single-family rentals, and what's shifts are under way? Back by popular demand, the O.G. of housing demographics, Chris Porter of John Burns Research & Consulting, joins the podcast to talk data and trends on all the key demographic drivers. How is immigration policy impacting rental housing demand? The answer is more nuanced than most pundits will acknowledge. And what does Burns data show on rental household formation? Does it align with other industry data showing strong absorption numbers despite numerous demand-side headwinds? What about the spike in young adults living with parents? Prior to the conversation with Chris, rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares five of his favorite housing demographics charts from JBREC's latest 100+ page housing demographics report. Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments like Rental Housing Economist, Good Question, In the News, and Good News.

When the ROAD to Housing Act became law, hundreds of single-family rental operators were instantly branded for the first time as "institutional" — despite many of them having no ties to Wall Street or any institutional capital. And while all the attention has gone toward big-name private equity groups and REITs, much less attention has gone toward the far greater number of local and regional SFR investors suddenly swept up in the legislation. What do they think of ROAD's new regulatory red tape on SFR, and how have their businesses been impacted by it. In this special episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons speaks with seven different SFR operators who represent the bulk of the firms impacted by ROAD, but all with unique strategies, geographic footprints and perspectives. For them, the irony of ironies is that they're too small to have much voice on regulatory topics but big enough to be swept up into the legislation. In this episode, you'll hear parts of their stories — and much of their frustration around being branded as "institutional" due to the law lumping all firms with 350+ single-family houses into that desgination. Additionally in this episode, Jay shares his take on ROAD now that it's become law ... not due to the President signing the bill, but because he didn't veto it either ... allowing it to become law after a 10-day holding period. Jay also brings back recurring segments like "Good Question," "In the News" and "Rental Housing Trivia."

Midway through 2026, how is the year playing out relative to expectations for the U.S. apartment market? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons lays out the latest data and trends on supply, demand, occupancy, rents, affordability and much more. One pleasant surprise: Apartment absorption came in hotter than expected in the first half of 2026, leading to the best occupancy improvement since 2021, according to multiple datasets. What's driving those numbers, and is it sustainable? And are rents showing any signs of momentum? Later in the program, Jay brings in Quinn Eddins, the head of research and analytics for the nation's largest apartment operator, Greystar. Quinn and Jay have a friendly debate about the health and durability of apartment demand, and whether the market turned the corner in the 2nd quarter of 2026. Quinn also shares his take on which high-supplied Sun Belt markets are recovering fastest, and which are lagging behind. Also in this episode, Jay shares headlines from the week — touching on the Marriott hotel chain expanding into the apartment business and on New York's apartment construction numbers. And as always, Jay shares another edition of Rental Housing Trivia, too.

When will the apartment market rebound from the highest supply wave since the 1970s? When will rents recover and concessions burn off and occupancy rates stabilize. In search of an answer, rental housing economist Jay Parsons makes the case for the most oft-dismissed trope in economics: "It depends." In defense of "it depends," Jay shares real data highlighting the how the recovery pace varies dramatically even with the same metro area — and all the variables that can shape the pace of the rebound. In addition, in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay shares the latest intel on the ROAD to Housing Act and also talks about New York City's edict for a two-year rent freeze on rent stabilized apartments, and why the rent stabilized apartment market is becoming increasingly less liquid. As if more evidence needed, Jay discusses news of Google co-founder Sergey Brin selling his stake in a rent stabilized apartment fund for just six cents on the dollar. Furthermore, Jay shares how major new research on the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program proves LIHTC is far more affordable — and reaching far more low-income renters — than its critics want to admit. Later in the program, Jay interviews Bridge Property Management CEO Matt DeGraw. Bridge ranks among the nation's top 20 largest apartment owners. Matt and Jay talk about the apartment market's recovery, leasing trends, and differences between conventional and affordable housing.

The ROAD to Housing Act finally got through Congress this week, only to then hit an unexpected roadblock with the White House, as the President cancelled a planned bill signing ceremony — extending the cloud of uncertainty over the single-family rental and build-to-rent industries. But what's in this bill, and how would it impact rental housing, should it eventually become law? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the details and explains why this is not the investor ban that many headlines are portraying it to be. Additionally, U.S. Congressman Josh Harder joins the podcast to take us behind the scenes on the ROAD to Housing Act and explain how the legislation came together and what impact it could have on the market. Rep. Harder was among the members of Congress who helped block Senate legislation that would have effectively nuked build-to-rent construction. Rep. Harder shares his view on how single-family rentals fit into the housing fabric of the U.S., and why conspiracy theories tend to dominate the housing narratives.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives deep with UDR, America's longest-running apartment REIT, sharing the story from UDR's founding as a small Virginia operator in the 1970s to its growth into an S&P 500 company — and the many turns along the way. UDR's chief financial officer, David Bragg, joins the podcast and covers a wide range of topics from thoughts on the AvalonBay/Equity Residential merger to stock buybacks to managing apartments without leasing staff on site. Additionally, Jay gives his take on the big headline of the week: The U.S. Senate and House reached agreement on the ROAD to Housing Act, clearing its path to passage. What does that mean for single-family rentals and build-to-rent? Jay summarizes the legislation and its potential impact. Also, Jay shares the latest Census data on multifamily starts, and why you should take that data with a heavy grain of salt.

It's one of the largest apartment owners in the U.S., yet still often suffers from a case of mistaken identity: Berkshire. As in Berkshire Residential Investments, not Berkshire Hathaway. The two are not related, yet both companies track back 60+ years with names originating from the same part of the country. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares the story of the "other" Berkshire, and then talks with Berkshire's managing director and head of property operators, Alan King, about the state of the apartment market across the country. Berkshire operates all over the country, and Alan shares which markets are seeing market conditions improving fastest and how he sees the year progressing for multifamily operators. Additionally, with spring now in the books, Jay shares the latest on apartment rent and occupancy trends. Did the spring leasing play out as expected? Also in this episode, Jay breaks down a busy week of news headlines — including a lengthy article critical of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, plus three major news releases from apartment REITs.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the realities of today's multifamily market: Debt is readily available, but equity is not ... unless it's preferred equity. Jay shares the latest data, including the historic spike in apartment loan originations, and explains why that might trigger some institutions to shift back toward equity strategies. Later in the program, Jay is joined by one of the early believers in the preferred equity, Marble Capital's David Oelfke. David talks about his journey starting ARA, growing it (along with partners) into a major apartment brokerage shop, selling it to Newmark, and then starting a new venture focused on preferred equity. How does preferred equity work and what are the advantages over common equity? Additionally, Jay analyzes the latest headlines on rental housing, including another big platform acquisition.

Is it better to manage properties in house, or to outsource to a third-party manager? It's an age-old question, and there's no one-size-fits-all answer. But there's no doubt that we continue to see far more consolidation in the management business than we do in property ownership. Why is that? Lantower Residential COO Emily Watson joins the podcast to share her experience, and talks about why her answer has evolved. Lantower recently made the decision to close its in-house management arm and hire a national third-party property manager. Emily candidly shares what drove that decision, how technology is changing the management game, and what early results they've seen thus far. Additionally on this episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons gives his take on a busy week of headlines — breaking down the announced merger between AvalonBay and Equity Residential, as well as analyzing the impact of the U.S. House's major housing bill that just passed with overwhelmingly bipartisan support. Jay also shares recurring segments like Rental Housing Trivia, Good News and New Digs — where he profiles a recently announced major office-to-residential tower conversion.

It's a very tough environment for apartment developers to get new projects started these days, with starts cut in half from 2022's peak levels. So what are the common denominators for projects breaking ground of late? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the data and shares five common themes among projects that are still working today even amidst softer rents and higher cost of capital. One unique profile includes master-planned development with long-term build-to-hold ownership. Jay travels to Raleigh and talks with Rob Reid of Kane Realty — which has been some of Raleigh's coolest live/work/play neighborhoods — for a conversation on placemaking. Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments like In the News, Rental Housing Trivia, Good Question and Good News.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares his top four takeaways from the single-family rental REITs' Q1'26 earnings calls — including how they're navigating heightened regulatory risk surrounding the ROAD to Housing Act, why stock buybacks are now preferred over investing in new development, how leasing activity is picking up this spring after a slow fall and winter, and much more. Additionally, Jay shares the latest news on the federal legislation: Will build-to-rent get carved out? Additionally, Jay shares headlines about the emergence of an unlikely pro-development folk hero and the bizarre rent inflation numbers released this week. And in this week's "Good News" segment, Jay tells the story of how one apartment manager helped a resident get through college — and how that resident is now paying it forward. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in Zelman's SFR REIT analyst, Jesse Lederman, for a conversation on AMH and Invitation Homes. Jesse shares his view on regulatory risk, the recent improvement in the REITs' stock prices, the leasing season, and the SFR outlook.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons recaps his six big takeaways from the apartment REITs' first quarter earnings calls that just wrapped up — starting with the big news that leaked after hours, the rumored merger discussions between AvalonBay and Equity Residential. What would be the implications of merging two of the biggest names in multifamily? Jay also shares color and highlights from the REITs' calls — touching on spring leasing momentum, rents, the big push toward stock buybacks over acquisitions, and differences between key markets across the U.S. Jay also shares the latest news on the ROAD to Housing Act, which took a positive turn this week as Politico reported the White House was pulling its support for the Senate legislation that effectively bans most build-to-rent construction. Also in the program, Jay welcomes in veteran Wall Street REIT analyst Alexander Goldfarb of Piper Sandler, who shares his take on the last rounding of earnings calls, the potential merger between AVB and EQR, and his thoughts on why REIT investors value apartments below net asset value.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the latest data on spring leasing trends, explains why supply is still a headwind even as completions decline, and answers the popular question: Why do different data providers show very different numbers for apartment occupancy right now? Additionally, Jay shares the latest buzz on Congress' potential ban on build-to-rent construction and single-family rental investments — and highlights the chorus of media articles trumpeting real facts to combat runaway narratives about institutional investors. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in proptech trends guru Dom Beveridge of 20 for 20 for a conversation on the latest trends in proptech and AI. Dom shares why his recent survey of apartment execs, asking about technology trends, found "exhaustion" as a key theme, as well as other key findings about what's moving the needle and what's to come.