Clearer Than Truth

Robert Zoellick, former U.S. Trade Representative, Deputy Secretary of State, and President of the World Bank, joins Clearer Than Truth for a wide-ranging conversation about globalization, trade, American power, and the future of the international order. Zoellick argues that the backlash against globalization has become intertwined with a broader backlash against elites and established institutions—but warns that the United States risks responding to legitimate concerns in ways that ultimately make the country weaker. He defends the strategic logic behind NAFTA and North American economic integration, arguing that a stronger relationship with Canada and Mexico gives the United States a powerful economic and security advantage in a world increasingly shaped by China. The conversation then turns to the weaponization of economic interdependence, protectionism, supply-chain resilience, and the danger of using national security as a justification for restricting trade. Zoellick argues that the United States should build greater resilience and redundancy where necessary—but shouldn't mistake economic isolation for security. He makes a similar case regarding China: compete aggressively in critical areas, but remain focused on staying technologically ahead rather than simply trying to shut the world off. Zoellick also examines the health of America's democratic institutions and the international alliances that underpin U.S. power. He warns that undermining confidence in elections, the rule of law, independent institutions, and America's commitments to allies can have consequences far beyond domestic politics. Drawing on his experience during the end of the Cold War and the global financial crisis, he argues that institutions can adapt to profound changes—but they must be strengthened rather than dismantled. The episode ultimately becomes a discussion about what comes next . Zoellick believes the international system is being disrupted and that a new generation will have an opportunity to reshape it. His advice is straightforward: avoid unnecessary conflicts, maintain openness to capital and talented people, and preserve the alliances and institutions that allow the United States to lead without having to dominate. 00:00 Robert Zoellick on the Backlash Against Globalization 01:14 Was NAFTA a Mistake? 02:21 Why Mexico Joined NAFTA 03:48 Is America Destroying North America? 04:35 The Strategic Case for North American Integration 06:31 Why America Needs Mexico and Canada 08:10 America's Relationship With Canada 09:59 Globalization Isn't Going Away 10:25 How Economic Interdependence Can Be Weaponized 12:07 The Hidden Cost of Protectionism 13:24 Should America Buy From China? 14:14 Zoellick's Biggest Regret About NAFTA 16:35 Can Trade Rules Keep Up With China? 18:29 The Real Economics of U.S.-Canada Trade 20:25 Why Economic Change Creates Political Backlash 21:09 Can America's Institutions Survive? 22:02 The Threat to American Democracy 23:14 Is Congress Losing Its Power? 24:07 Could America's Alliances Unravel? 25:23 The Lessons of the Cold War 26:42 Was NATO Expansion a Mistake? 27:31 Why NATO Still Matters 28:18 How to Support Ukraine Without NATO Membership 29:02 Can America Adapt the World Order? 30:32 America Has Always Had to Fight for Consensus 31:24 Can America Manage Competition With China? 32:05 Can the U.S. and China Cooperate on AI? 32:26 Don't Make America More Like China 34:31 America's Energy Security Problem 36:20 Why Allies Matter in a Conflict With China 37:10 The Best Strategy Against China 37:54 Can America's Institutions Survive Another Crisis? 39:19 The Lesson of the Global Financial Crisis 40:22 Why America Still Has to Lead 40:47 The Next Generation Will Remake the World 41:12 Zoellick's Advice for the Future 42:09 Closing Thoughts Support the show

Africa is becoming increasingly central to the global order, yet many of its conflicts and political shifts remain overlooked in Western discourse. On this episode of Clearer Than Truth , Nathan speaks with Declan Walsh , Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and Chief Africa Correspondent for The New York Times , about the forces reshaping the continent. Walsh begins with the war in Sudan, a conflict whose scale and human toll rival some of the world's most prominent wars but has received considerably less international attention. He explains why Sudan has become a critical case study in the changing priorities of the United States and the broader Western world. The conversation then turns to Africa's extraordinary demographic transformation. While much of the world faces aging and shrinking populations, Africa remains young and rapidly growing. Walsh discusses what this population boom could mean for the continent—and for the rest of the world—as Africa's share of the global population continues to increase. Walsh also examines the changing geopolitical competition in Africa. As American engagement has receded, countries including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, and Russia have expanded their influence, pursuing access to resources, investment opportunities, ports, and strategic relationships. A major focus is the impact of reduced U.S. aid. Walsh describes what he has witnessed firsthand in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, including the collapse of humanitarian food programs and weakened disease-surveillance networks. The discussion also explores Africa's increasingly restless younger generation, the rise of Gen Z protests, the failures of democratic governments to deliver economic opportunity, and the growing appeal of military leaders in parts of West Africa. Finally, Walsh identifies some of the continent's most dangerous potential flashpoints—including rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea—and returns to the war in Sudan, warning about the possibility of the conflict spreading across borders and drawing in neighboring powers. Despite these challenges, he closes on a more hopeful note, pointing to Africa's enormous human potential, improving health and education outcomes, and the many people driving progress across the continent. 00:00 Why Africa Matters to the World 02:53 Africa's Population Boom 03:51 America's Changing Approach to Africa 08:18 The New Powers Competing for Africa 12:14 The Real-World Impact of U.S. Aid Cuts 18:42 Africa's Youth & the Threat of Instability 22:18 What Happened to the Arab Spring? 26:49 The Sahel's Growing Crisis 28:23 Ethiopia, Eritrea & the Next Major Flashpoint 32:41 The UAE, Saudi Arabia & the New Geopolitics 36:08 Can Sudan Survive as a Unified Country? 39:32 What Gives Walsh Hope for Africa? Support the show

Two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist and acclaimed presidential historian H.W. Brands joins Clearer Than Truth to explore what history can teach us about American leadership, democracy, and the presidency. Brands discusses what separates great presidents from mediocre ones, arguing that the most important quality in a leader is good judgment —the ability to make wise decisions in circumstances where there are rarely clear answers. He explains why presidents like George Washington, Theodore Roosevelt, and Franklin Roosevelt succeeded in their own historical moments, and why greatness cannot simply be transplanted from one era to another. The conversation also examines Donald Trump and his place in presidential history. Brands compares Trump's dominance of American political life to Franklin Roosevelt's, while asking whether Trump represents a temporary departure from traditional presidential norms or a lasting transformation of the presidency. As America is in the midst of its 250th anniversary, Brands reflects on the extraordinary experiment the United States represents: a nation founded around the idea that people can govern themselves. He considers whether American democracy is in danger, why political polarization isn't new, and what today's fractured media environment means for an informed electorate. Finally, Brands discusses his biography of George Washington, revealing how Washington's restraint, patience, and ability to gather information before making decisions helped establish the presidency—and why his actions helped shape the power of the executive branch for generations to come. 00:00 What Makes a Great President? 02:57 The Secret to Presidential Greatness 04:19 America's Most Controversial Presidents 07:47 Trump vs. FDR: A Historical Comparison 10:13 The Presidents Who Had a Grand Strategy 13:33 America's 250-Year Experiment 18:01 Is American Democracy Failing? 21:30 America's Partisan Media Has Always Been Divided 24:05 Are We Entering an Age of Post-Literacy? 26:52 How Do You Understand George Washington? 32:37 Washington's Greatest Leadership Trait 36:51 How Washington Expanded Presidential Power 38:57 H.W. Brands' Historical Dinner Party Support the show

Arne Westad, one of the world’s leading historians of international history and the Cold War, joins Clearer Than Truth to examine the geopolitical forces reshaping the world. Westad argues that today’s rivalry between the United States and China should not simply be viewed as a new Cold War. Instead, he sees stronger parallels with the period before World War I—a time when a relatively stable international system began to fracture, multiple regional conflicts emerged, and no one could predict which crisis might ultimately trigger a global catastrophe. The conversation explores the increasingly consequential relationship between Russia and China, Russia’s dependence on Beijing, the future of Putin’s regime, NATO expansion, Russian nationalism, and the lessons history can—and cannot—teach us about today's conflicts. Westad also examines China’s extraordinary economic transformation, its relationship with Taiwan, and how Beijing is interpreting Russia’s experience in Ukraine. He ultimately argues that the coming decades are likely to be defined by multipolarity, rising nationalism, and a series of smaller conflicts that could test the ability of major powers to maintain global stability. 00:00 Introduction: Arne Westad 00:29 Is This a New Cold War? 02:20 Why 1914 May Be the Better Comparison 04:32 Russia & China: A Dangerous Partnership 07:33 How China Became a Global Power 09:20 How Durable Is the Russia-China Partnership? 12:10 What Happens to Russia by 2050? 14:23 How Putin Led Russia Into Crisis 16:41 NATO Expansion & Russia's Strategic Thinking 19:17 What Is Happening Inside Russia? 22:40 What Happens If Putin's Regime Weakens? 24:15 Understanding Russian Nationalism 27:33 China's Rise & Global Ambitions 30:49 What Is China Learning From Ukraine? 33:00 The Future of the Global Order 35:30 The Coming Storm & What's Next Support the show

Admiral Mike Rogers joins hosts Nathan Kiker and George Bogden to assess how cyber deterrence, disinformation, and rapid advances in AI are reshaping strategic competition. Rogers argues that the United States’ most consequential vulnerability is domestic: deep polarization that blocks consensus on hard problems—public debt, social programs, and technology governance—making solutions more costly the longer they’re deferred. The result is a political system struggling to keep pace with a security environment defined by speed, interdependence, and information manipulation. Rogers contends that credible cyber deterrence remains elusive. Adversaries still view peacetime cyber operations and influence campaigns as low-cost, low-risk tools to impose friction on the United States and its allies. He calls for a broader, risk-informed menu of response options—some signaled publicly—to shift adversary cost-benefit calculations, backed by consistent attribution and the capacity to impose costs across domains. The conversation examines critical infrastructure exposure in an era of dense interconnection and fragile dependencies, from power grids and ports to finance, communications, and GPS/PNT. Despite notable improvements since NotPetya and Colonial Pipeline, Rogers warns that complexity creates hidden failure modes that demand anticipatory standards, cross-sector exercises, and sharper prioritization of high-impact, high-probability risks. On AI, Rogers separates hype from operational reality. He highlights the true costs of development and deployment, the likelihood of a tiered model ecosystem rather than a frontier-model default, and the regulatory lag behind private-sector innovation—especially as China and Russia pursue state-driven approaches. His near-term worry is less a technical catastrophe than a breakdown in societal cohesion catalyzed by technology; his optimism comes from motivated innovators building guardrails and tools that strengthen, rather than corrode, open societies. 00:00 Introduction to Admiral Mike Rogers 00:32 America's Biggest National Security Challenge 06:24 Global Threats Beyond U.S. Politics 08:19 AI, Emerging Technology & Government Regulation 10:09 China's Artificial Intelligence Strategy 17:04 How China Could Attack America's Infrastructure 22:34 Why Governments Struggle to Assess Risk 25:07 America's Offensive Cyber Capabilities 28:58 Should the U.S. Be More Aggressive in Cyberspace? 34:20 Why Cyber Deterrence Is Failing 38:52 The One Scenario That Worries Mike Rogers Most 42:04 Why Technology Still Gives Him Hope About the Guest Admiral Mike Rogers is the former Director of the National Security Agency and Commander of U.S. Cyber Command (2014–2018). A retired four-star U.S. Navy officer, he previously led U.S. Fleet Cyber Command/Tenth Fleet and brings decades of experience at the intersection of signals intelligence, cyber operations, and national security strategy. Support the show

Julian Zelizer joins Nathan Kiker and George Bogden to assess how polarization and party dynamics have reshaped U.S. governance—and why that matters for foreign policy, markets, and national security. He argues that political parties are indispensable institutions that organize interests and enable collective decision-making, but warns that key guardrails and leadership norms have eroded since the 1990s. The result is a Congress more prone to procedural hardball and performative conflict, with downstream effects on deterrence credibility, budget stability, and the steadiness of U.S. strategy. Zelizer traces a pivotal shift to Newt Gingrich’s ascent, which normalized a confrontational style that weaponized procedure and treated political opponents as illegitimate. Combined with narrow, shifting majorities and social media incentives, these dynamics reward zero-sum tactics over governing. The consequence is a legislature less able to absorb disagreement, negotiate tradeoffs, and deliver predictable policy—conditions that allies, adversaries, and businesses now price into their decisions. He also charts the long arc of the “imperial presidency,” noting that executive power has expanded for decades across parties. Yet Congress retains real leverage: the power of the purse, oversight, and statute remain decisive tools. Zelizer highlights the 1970s as proof that institutional renewal is possible, pointing to reforms on budgeting, ethics, disclosure, and impoundment limits, and offering a sober assessment of the War Powers Resolution’s mixed record. Looking ahead, Zelizer outlines practical steps to rebuild capacity: reestablish guardrails, strengthen committee work and regular order, and better connect party organizations to voters. For policymakers, investors, and security professionals, the message is clear: institutional design and leadership incentives are strategic variables that shape U.S. reliability, crisis response, and long-term competitiveness. Key Topics Discussed Why parties are essential to American democracy—and how frayed leadership norms since the 1990s shifted incentives from governing to procedural combat. The Gingrich-era revolution: weaponized oversight, agenda control, and scorched-earth tactics that redefined congressional power and political culture. The rise of the imperial presidency and how Congress can still reassert authority through budgets, oversight, and targeted statutory reform. War Powers, authorizations for use of force, and the practical constraints Congress faces when presidents act quickly in crises. Paths to renewal: restoring guardrails, rewarding substantive legislating over performative politics, and engaging a new generation of public servants. Chapter Markers 00:00 Introduction to Julian Zelizer 01:05 Why Defend Partisanship? 04:01 Is America's Political System Broken? 06:30 Newt Gingrich and the Modern Republican Party 08:12 How the U.S. Compares to Other Democracies 12:26 Are Today's Politicians Less Effective? 15:48 How Congress Lost Power to the Presidency 21:11 Executive Power, Congress, and the Supreme Court 24:29 The War Powers Debate and Foreign Policy 27:21 Why Biden Succeeded Legislatively 30:06 What the Founders Intended for Congress 31:10 Why Julian Zelizer Remains Optimistic About the Guest Julian E. Zelizer is a leading historian of American politics and Congress, serving as the Malcolm Stevenson Forbes, Class of 1941 Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of numerous books on U.S. governance, including Burning Down the House: Newt Gingrich, the Fall of a Speaker, and the Rise of the New Republican Party, and is a frequent analyst on the presidency, party politics, and institutional reform. Support the show

Bojan Pancevski, Chief European Political Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of The Nord Stream Conspiracy, unpacks the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines and its far‑reaching strategic consequences. The episode centers on attribution, tradecraft, and the emerging legal case in Germany—an unusually clear window into how a small clandestine team can generate outsized geopolitical effects by targeting critical undersea infrastructure. Nathan Kiker and George Bogdan press Pancevski on “Operation Diameter,” a plan conceived within a Ukrainian special operations unit but executed by civilian deep‑sea divers with limited clandestine training at 80–100 meters in the Baltic. He traces the recruitment pipeline, rapid training, and a chain of approval that ran through General Valery Zaluzhny, alongside the unresolved question of what, if anything, reached President Zelensky. The result, he argues, was an audacious, low‑budget mission that struck at the heart of Europe’s energy map in 2022. The conversation then turns to the German federal prosecutor’s decision to pursue war‑crimes charges—an attempt to bypass combatant immunity (the legal protection afforded to lawful combatants) by arguing the target was German infrastructure and the operatives were out of uniform. Pancevski outlines how this approach collides with politics in Berlin and Kyiv, intersecting with Germany’s energy strategy, the legacy of Angela Merkel’s Nord Stream policy, and live parliamentary debates. Finally, the episode situates Nord Stream within U.S.–European dynamics, from CIA warnings to the Biden administration’s stance on Nord Stream 2, and distills the strategic lesson: modern undersea networks—pipelines, power interconnectors, data cables—are acutely vulnerable to low‑cost attacks. With a Hamburg trial on the horizon, the case could set legal precedent, strain alliances, and reshape how states plan covert action and defend seabed infrastructure. Key Topics Discussed How “Operation Diameter” combined military planning with a civilian dive team to execute a complex, deep‑water sabotage on a minimal budget—and what that reveals about modern covert tradecraft. The command architecture behind the operation, including approval attributed to General Valery Zaluzhny and the ongoing dispute over presidential awareness in Kyiv. Germany’s prosecutorial strategy to pursue war‑crimes charges by challenging combatant immunity due to non‑uniformed operatives and damage to German infrastructure, and the political risk this creates. Berlin’s domestic cross‑pressures: energy security after Nord Stream, Merkel’s legacy, Bundestag debates, and how parties frame accountability and deterrence. Strategic implications for the protection of undersea infrastructure, deterrence signaling, escalation risks, and U.S.–European coordination amid CIA warnings and the Biden administration’s Nord Stream 2 posture. Timestamps 00:00 – Why Nord Stream matters: strategic leverage, energy, and alliance politics 03:45 – Inside “Operation Diameter”: planning, recruitment, and deep‑water tradecraft 12:30 – Chain of command: Zaluzhny’s role and the Zelensky question 18:50 – Germany’s legal gambit: war‑crimes theory vs. combatant immunity 25:40 – Berlin’s political calculus: energy strategy, Merkel’s legacy, and Bundestag debate 32:15 – The U.S. angle: CIA warnings, sanctions policy, and transatlantic diplomacy 38:40 – Seabed vulnerability: pipelines, cables, and the deterrence challenge 44:20 – The Hamburg trial: evidentiary hurdles and alliance implications 49:10 – Did the sabotage achieve its aims? Russia’s repair/reopen push and narratives 53:00 – Policy takeaways: hardening infrastructure and shaping future covert action norms About the Guest Bojan Pancevski is the Chief European Political Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and the author of The Nord Stream Conspiracy. He reports on European politics, security, and transatlantic affairs, with a track record of breaking stories at the intersection of intelligence, law, and statecraft. Support the show

Benjamin Alarie joins hosts Nathan Kiker and George Bogdan to examine how rapidly improving AI systems can strengthen the administration of law—starting with tax, where complexity, volume, and inconsistency have long constrained access to justice. Alarie argues that legal AI is transitioning from promise to performance, producing measurably more accurate and comprehensive research while enabling the kind of population-level analysis that policymakers and practitioners have struggled to execute at scale. The conversation moves beyond abstract fairness debates to operational impact. Drawing on a decade of building tools at BlueJ Legal, Alarie underscores a sharp decline in user disagreement with AI-generated answers as models and workflows have matured. He details how adversarial research techniques—prompting strongest counterarguments and “braiding” outputs from multiple frontier models—paired with strict verification against primary sources, drive better outcomes. The result is faster, deeper, and more consistent analysis across statutes, cases, and administrative guidance. A core strategic theme is harmonization. Legal AI can help reconcile fragmented regimes—tax versus employment standards, antitrust versus trade policy, or Quebec’s civil law alongside common-law provinces—by mapping doctrine to practical outcomes and integrating empirical evidence. That capability enables more consistent enforcement, clearer incentives for firms, and a stronger foundation for preventative governance rather than purely reactive adjudication. Alarie is clear on limits: AI augments, not replaces, professional judgment. Accountability remains with human experts, and progress in tools must be matched by attention to the digital divide—where paper filings, limited connectivity, and uneven digital literacy still impede equitable access. For policymakers and leaders, the stakes are systemic: modernization of legal research and administration can reduce friction in markets, enhance compliance, and promote rule-of-law consistency across jurisdictions. Allery’s new book, Superjustice: The Future of Law, outlines these pathways in depth. Key Topics Discussed - Performance over theory: why disagreement with AI-generated legal answers is falling and what that signals about maturity in real-world research workflows. - Harmonizing fragmented regimes: using AI to surface cross-jurisdictional patterns, reconcile conflicting doctrines, and align legal incentives with policy goals. - Adversarial AI research: stress-testing conclusions by eliciting strongest counterarguments, braiding multiple model outputs, and verifying against primary sources. - From cases to populations: enabling empirical, population-level analyses of legal outcomes that inform better policy design and preventative governance. - Access and equity: the digital divide, persistent reliance on paper processes, and why infrastructure and adoption dynamics will shape AI’s impact on justice. About the Guest Benjamin Alarie is the CEO of BlueJ Legal and co-author of Superjustice: The Future of Law. He has spent the past decade building AI tools for tax and related legal research, bringing a practitioner’s mindset to model design, verification, and workflow integration. His experience positions him to assess where legal AI delivers real value, how to measure it, and what it will take to translate technical progress into fairer, more consistent legal outcomes. Timestamps - 00:00 — Framing the opportunity: why tax is a proving ground for legal AI - 06:20 — Measuring performance: accuracy, coverage, and declining user disagreement - 14:05 — Harmonization use cases across jurisdictions and practice areas - 22:30 — Adversarial techniques and multi-model “braiding” for resilient answers - 30:15 — Empirical synthesis: population-level insights for policy and compliance - 38:10 — Professional accountability and verification against primary sources - 44:55 — Adoption dynamics: legislative, judicial, and organizational factors - 51:40 — Digital divide, paper processes, and access-to-justice implications - 57:10 — Closing reflections and resources (Superjustice at superjustice.com) Support the show

David Ignatius assesses how a fragmenting international order is reshaping U.S. strategy, allied cohesion, and day‑to‑day security. He argues the Middle East is settling into a harder-edged equilibrium: Iran’s hardliners have gained leverage despite battlefield setbacks to Tehran’s proxies; the Strait of Hormuz will likely reopen on Iran’s terms; and Turkey’s assertiveness is now a central strategic variable for Israel. These dynamics matter because they redefine risk at an energy chokepoint and test Washington’s ability to manage allies with diverging interests. Joining hosts Nathan Kiker and George Bogdan, Ignatius is struck by China’s passivity during the Hormuz crisis—even as Beijing’s technological and manufacturing advantages deepen. That paradox, he warns, could reshape American life unless the U.S. rebalances supply chains and rebuilds industrial capacity. In a world where economic power is concentrating while geopolitical discipline is eroding, technological dependence becomes a strategic liability. Beyond the region, Ignatius contends the U.S.-led postwar order is decaying without a clear successor. Asian allies read mixed U.S. signals on trade and security, even as Japan emerges as Washington’s most trusted partner and Vietnam’s importance grows. The result is a wary Indo-Pacific looking for consistency and credible capacity rather than speeches and episodic deals. On Ukraine, Ignatius sees a brutal but durable stalemate that is strategically costly for Russia, with domestic support eroding under the strain. Ukraine’s rapid drone innovation is setting a new standard for modern conflict, altering cost curves and operational tempo. Yet the greater risk, he cautions, may be a destabilized, post‑Putin Russia—an outcome that could be more dangerous than a negotiated pause if not carefully managed. Ignatius closes with a broader worry: a two‑speed world where technology races ahead while geopolitics fragments is unsustainable. Smarter policy, tighter allied coordination, and potentially AI‑enabled systems for crisis management may be necessary to restore a measure of stability so people can live “normal” lives. Key Topics Discussed Why Iran’s hardliners—and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps)—hold more leverage despite proxy setbacks, and how a reopened Strait of Hormuz on Tehran’s terms would reset regional risk. Turkey’s growing assertiveness and what it means for Israel’s strategy, Gulf cohesion, and the balance among non‑Arab power centers. China’s conspicuous silence during the Hormuz crisis contrasted with its accelerating edge in technology and manufacturing—and why U.S. supply chain resilience is now a strategic imperative. The fading U.S.-led order in Asia: allies unsettled by inconsistent trade and security signals, Japan’s rise as the most trusted partner, and Vietnam’s expanding role in regional balancing. Ukraine’s grinding stalemate, the strategic erosion of Russian support for the war, the battlefield impact of rapid drone innovation, and the risks posed by a chaotic post‑Putin Russia. About the Guest David Ignatius is a columnist and associate editor at the Washington Post, widely recognized for reporting and analysis on foreign affairs, intelligence, and national security. He has covered the Middle East, U.S. strategy, and great‑power competition for decades and is the author of several acclaimed novels rooted in geopolitical and intelligence themes. Support the show

Brad Thor returns to the show to discuss his latest thriller, Choke Point, a geopolitical suspense novel that explores one of the most consequential strategic questions of the 21st century: what happens if China gains control over the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. A #1 New York Times bestselling author and creator of the Scott Harvath series, Thor explains how real-world concerns about China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Strait of Malacca, and gray-zone warfare inspired the novel's plot. He discusses the growing importance of shipping lanes, soft power, and strategic infrastructure in global competition, as well as why he believes the next major geopolitical challenge for the United States will center on China. The conversation also explores covert conflict, military deception, the lessons of history, and how fiction can help readers better understand emerging threats before they become tomorrow's headlines. Thor reflects on the evolution of Scott Harvath after 25 years, the changing reading habits of modern audiences, and why geopolitical thrillers remain a powerful way to engage with the world around us. 00:00 Introduction to Brad Thor and Choke Point 01:17 China's Belt and Road Strategy Explained 05:25 The Plot Behind Choke Point 07:08 Historical Lessons: D-Day, Deception, and Taiwan 09:02 Why Shipping Lanes Matter More Than Ever 12:29 China, Gray Zone Warfare, and Global Competition 18:08 Why Readers Are Increasingly Focused on China 22:38 Scott Harvath's Evolution After 25 Years 25:50 Wealth, Influence, and Foreign Policy 29:03 Writing with Ward Larsen and Crafting Thrillers 32:17 Social Media, Attention Spans, and the Future of Reading 36:10 Will Scott Harvath Ever Retire? 38:07 Final Thoughts on Choke Point Support the show

Dr. Michael Auslin, historian, Hoover Institution fellow, and author of National Treasure: How the Declaration of Independence Made America , joins the show to explore the remarkable journey of America's founding document as the nation approaches its 250th anniversary. In this conversation, Auslin explains why the Declaration of Independence was originally viewed as a practical wartime necessity rather than a sacred national text. He walks through the dramatic debates surrounding independence, Thomas Jefferson’s drafting process, the influence of Enlightenment thinkers, and the political compromises that shaped the final document. The discussion also examines how the Declaration evolved over time—from a revolutionary announcement to what Abraham Lincoln called the nation's "apple of gold." Auslin traces how generations of Americans, from abolitionists to civil rights advocates, embraced its promise of equality and liberty, transforming it into one of the most influential documents in world history. As America approaches its semiquincentennial, Auslin argues that the Declaration remains the country's ultimate unifying document—a statement of ideals that continues to shape debates about freedom, citizenship, and national identity today. Support the show

Mark Galeotti is one of the world’s foremost experts on Russia, an honorary professor at University College London, director of Mayak Intelligence, and author of more than 30 books on Russian history, intelligence, and organized crime. His latest work, Forged in War, explores the military history of Russia from its origins to the present day. In this episode, Galeotti explains why Vladimir Putin’s recent Victory Day parade revealed not strength—but vulnerability. He breaks down the growing strain inside Russia, from economic pressure and Ukrainian drone strikes to elite infighting and declining public trust in Putin’s leadership. The conversation also explores Putin’s worldview, the Soviet legacy that shaped him, and why Galeotti believes Russia is entering a generational transition. He examines the growing divide between Putin’s aging inner circle and younger elites preparing for a post-Putin future, while offering insight into what Russia could look like in the decades ahead. Throughout the discussion, Galeotti argues that the war in Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped Russia politically, economically, and psychologically—and that even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, the consequences will last for generations. 00:00 Intro — What Putin’s Victory Day Parade Revealed 01:11 Why the Parade Signaled Weakness 05:21 Russians Are Starting to Feel the War 07:56 Does Putin Think the War Is Ending? 12:37 Why Putin Can’t Walk Away From Ukraine 17:03 How History Will Remember Putin 19:14 Is Putin Becoming Russia’s Brezhnev? 22:34 The Quiet Succession Debate Inside Russia 25:30 Ukraine’s Attacks on Russia’s Economy 30:14 How the Soviet Union Still Shapes Putin 35:33 What a Post-Putin Russia Could Look Like 40:14 Organized Crime, Russia, and Final Thoughts Support the show

Douglas Brunt is a New York Times bestselling author, and host of the podcast Dedicated. His latest book, The Lost Empire of Emanuel Nobel, uncovers the forgotten story of the Nobel family’s oil empire — a business that once rivaled Rockefeller’s Standard Oil before being erased from history by the Soviet regime. In this episode, Brunt explores the rise of Emanuel Nobel, nephew of Alfred Nobel, and how the Nobel family transformed the Russian oil industry into one of the largest petroleum empires in the world. The conversation traces the origins of global oil competition, the rise of industrial capitalism, and the violent political upheavals that reshaped the 20th century. Brunt also discusses the role of oil in world history — from the early battles over energy dominance to the Russian Revolution, World War I, and the emergence of modern geopolitics. He explains how Emanuel Nobel crossed paths with figures like Joseph Stalin and why the Bolsheviks saw the Nobel empire as a symbol of everything they wanted to destroy. The episode also dives into the origins of the Nobel Prize, the legacy of Alfred Nobel, the relationship between energy and global power, and why stories buried in forgotten archives still shape the modern world. Support the show

Ryan Crocker is one of the most distinguished diplomats in modern American history, serving as U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, and Kuwait over a decades-long diplomatic career at the center of U.S. foreign policy. In this episode, Ambassador Crocker argues that the world is passing through a dangerous geopolitical “hinge point” — one marked by growing instability in the Middle East, rising strain on U.S. alliances, and the potential breakdown of the post-World War II international order. Drawing on firsthand experience from Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Syria, Crocker reflects on the long-term consequences of the Iraq War, the evolution of terrorism and proxy warfare, and the limits of American power. He warns that weakening alliances like NATO could accelerate nuclear proliferation and return the world to a far more dangerous balance-of-power system. The conversation also explores the Iran conflict, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, China’s growing role in global affairs, and why diplomacy and personal relationships between leaders still matter in statecraft. Throughout, Crocker offers a sobering but deeply informed perspective on what happens when global leadership becomes uncertain. Support the show

David McCloskey is a former CIA analyst and presidential briefer, now a bestselling author and co-host of the hit podcast The Rest Is Classified. He is the author of acclaimed spy novels including Damascus Station, Moscow X, and The Persian. In this episode, McCloskey pulls back the curtain on the world of intelligence—explaining why people are so fascinated by espionage and how secret operations can shape global events. He discusses the role of individuals versus systems in geopolitics, arguing that decisions often come down to what’s happening inside the minds of powerful leaders. The conversation also explores the intersection of fiction and reality, including how McCloskey draws on real-world conflicts—like the shadow war between Israel and Iran—to inform his novels. He shares insights into storytelling across mediums, from books to podcasts to television, and why different formats demand different approaches. McCloskey also reflects on the current state of the intelligence community, the impact of political dynamics on analysis, and the challenges of delivering clear, unbiased information at the highest levels of government. Throughout, he offers a rare look at how intelligence is created, consumed, and sometimes ignored. Support the show

Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of international economics at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. One of the world’s most influential economists, his work spans financial crises, central banking, and global currency systems. His latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, examines the future of U.S. financial dominance. In this episode, Rogoff explains why the U.S. dollar’s global dominance—long a cornerstone of American power—may be gradually weakening. He breaks down how the dollar gives the U.S. enormous economic and geopolitical advantages, from lower borrowing costs to control over global financial flows, and why those advantages are now being challenged. The conversation explores rising global debt, the risk of a future debt crisis, and why simply taxing the wealthy won’t solve the problem at scale. Rogoff also discusses the growing pressure on central bank independence, the disruptive potential of AI, and the risks posed by crypto and stablecoins to financial stability. He offers a sobering but nuanced outlook: while the U.S. economy remains historically strong, long-term risks—from political dysfunction to global fragmentation—could reshape the financial system in ways policymakers are not fully prepared for. Support the show

Robert Kaplan is a bestselling author and geopolitical analyst, known for works like The Revenge of Geography. A longtime foreign affairs correspondent for The Atlantic, he has also advised the Pentagon and served as a leading voice in strategic analysis for decades. In this episode, Kaplan explains how geography and human behavior together shape global conflict—from the Strait of Hormuz to Taiwan. He argues that while geography sets the stage, it is ultimately leaders, decisions, and historical memory that determine how events unfold. The conversation explores the risks of a future U.S.-China conflict, why a war in the Pacific could be far more catastrophic than conflicts in the Middle East, and what a realistic outcome in Ukraine might look like. Kaplan also examines the weakening of NATO, the long-term instability facing Russia, and the dangers of what he calls “middle-sized wars”—conflicts that are large enough to be destructive but too small to fully capture public attention. Drawing on lessons from Iraq and decades of geopolitical analysis, Kaplan offers a sobering warning: policymakers must think beyond immediate action and ask the critical question—“what happens next?” Support the show

Nataliya Gumenyuk is a Ukrainian journalist, documentary filmmaker, and CEO & founder of the Public Interest Journalism Lab, as well as co-founder of The Reckoning Project. She is one of the leading voices documenting war crimes and pursuing international justice in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In this episode, Gumenyuk explains why the war in Ukraine must be understood not just as a series of tragedies, but as deliberate crimes that demand accountability . Drawing on hundreds of survivor testimonies, she discusses the challenges of documenting war crimes, the limits of international institutions like the ICC, and why journalists and legal teams are increasingly turning to alternative jurisdictions to pursue justice. The conversation also explores the human dimension of war—what victims actually want, why truth and recognition matter as much as punishment, and how disinformation threatens to erase these crimes from global memory. Gumenyuk offers a sobering perspective on war fatigue, Western support, and why Ukrainians continue to fight—not out of choice, but necessity. Support the show

Branko Milanović is one of the world’s leading economists and a former lead economist at the World Bank. Known for his groundbreaking work on global inequality, Milanović has spent decades analyzing how wealth and power shift across countries and individuals. In this episode, Milanović argues that the era of neoliberal globalization is over—and is being replaced by what he calls “national liberalism.” He explains how countries are abandoning free trade and global integration while continuing pro-market policies at home, creating a new and more fragmented economic system. The conversation explores the rise of Asia, the decline of Western economic dominance, and how global income is being reshuffled across both nations and individuals. Milanović also breaks down why some economic policies can be “lose-lose” in absolute terms but still make sense geopolitically, and how inequality—both within and between countries—continues to shape global stability. Support the show

Charles Kupchan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He previously served on the National Security Council under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, helping shape U.S. policy toward Europe. In this episode, Kupchan explains his concept of “liberal realism” and why he believes the world is entering a new geopolitical era—one defined not by a single dominant power, but by a fragmented, “de-centered” global order. He discusses the decline of multilateral institutions, the uncertain future of NATO, and the growing shift of power from West to East and North to South. The conversation also explores whether the liberal international order is truly collapsing, what a multipolar world means for global stability, and why democracies must adapt to survive in the digital age. Kupchan offers a sobering look at the future of global cooperation, warning that demand for coordination is rising just as the ability to achieve it is declining. Support the show