Bulls vs. Bears

Will they actually slow down AI? Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk say we should pace AI development — but we're not buying it. The three leaders of the AI race all agreeing on regulation? Smells like incumbents pulling up the drawbridge. This week Mark, JT and Kai unpack the AI safety debate, $9 diesel in California and what it means for inflation, 924 Aussie construction firms entering administration off the back of the Bartholomew collapse, private credit risks that nobody wants to talk about, and why the Fed just changed the game with three more rate hikes on the table. Plus — what the market's missing: passive ETF flows propping up prices, inflation expectations diverging from commodity prices, US government debt blasting through $40 trillion, and why we think real assets are the play. All three hosts are bearish again. We scraped through last week's call by 0.25% and we're sticking to our guns. Picks this week: Sigma, SentinelOne, silver miners on the buy side. Nine Entertainment, Aussie property and banks on the avoid. Wildcards include Arafura, HP Enterprise and a Tealix FDA win. This is general information only and not personal financial advice. MPC Markets is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 001309356) of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 296877).

Oil at $103. Treasury yields at 5%. Trump handing out $5,000 cheques. And former AI safety researchers say there's a 10%+ chance artificial intelligence ends humanity within the decade. In Episode 136 of Bulls vs Bears, the MPC Markets team cuts through the noise on AI existential risk — is it a genuine warning or conveniently timed ahead of capital raises and IPO season? Plus: why analyst earnings forecasts have failed to warn investors ahead of every major crash, Uber burning through its entire annual AI token budget in four months, and the fertiliser angle no one's talking about. All four hosts are bearish. Picks include Apple, Cloudflare, the VIX, shorting the NASDAQ, and selling crypto. 🔗 mpcmarkets.com.au for a free portfolio review. General information only. Not personal financial advice. AFSL 296877.

Oil hit $93, Fed rate hike odds swung wildly, and Nvidia bought Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Three simultaneous shocks heading into September, historically the worst month for equities. This week we break down the oil breakout, the Warsh vs Waller showdown at the Fed, why open-source AI just became a closed shop, and what September seasonal weakness actually means for your portfolio. Plus stock picks, what the market is missing, and our bull vs bear calls for next week. Featuring Mark Gardner, Kai Chen, Finn Judell and Jonathan Tacadena. Key topics: Brent crude breakout, Fed September rate decision, Nvidia-Hugging Face acquisition, September seasonality, Berkshire cash levels, agriculture commodities, Robinhood blockchain, cybersecurity stocks, non-farm payrolls preview. Free portfolio review → mpcmarkets.com.au Stock recommendations → Mosaic (mention the podcast for 3 months free) General advice only. AFSL 296877 via LeMessurier Securities.

Jensen Huang has done it again. NVIDIA posted $59.7 billion in net income, more than 12 iconic companies combined, on 70% margins. Software stocks are surging, the SaaSpocalypse is dead, and we're only a quarter of the way through the hyperscaler capex cycle. This week the boys break down NVIDIA's monster earnings, why ASX tech is lagging US software by 43%, Amazon's robotics play, the uranium setup heating up on US-Canada trade tensions, and warning signs in private credit. Plus the full Buy, Avoid and Wild Card picks for the week ahead. Fear & Greed: 58 (Greed). Bull/Bear: 3-1 Bullish. Next week: Jackson Hole, Broadcom, ZScaler and Non-Farm Payrolls.

US debt hits $40 trillion. Bitcoin surges 20%. Moderna rockets 177% on a breakthrough cancer treatment. And Bessent starts buying the long end of the curve — is this the white flag on US fiscal discipline? In this week's Bulls vs Bears, Mark, Phil, JT, and Finn (filling in for Kai) break down ASX earnings season — CSL shines (+7%), BHP delivers a record dividend, and consumer discretionary gets hammered across the board. Plus the team debuts a new segment: Buy, Avoid, and Wildcard picks. Topics covered: $40 trillion US debt — what it means for fiat currency and precious metals Bitcoin's 20% rally, the Clarity Act, and why Finn says be patient on the 4-year cycle ASX earnings: CSL, BHP, Stockland (+12%), Breville, and the consumer pain trade Why gold miners are still cheap despite record gold prices Bond yields, yield curve targeting, and Bessent's "surrender" Oil creeping toward records while the US consumer burns through savings Each team member's Buy, Avoid, and Wildcard picks Bulls vs Bears verdict: 2 bearish, 2 bullish heading into NVIDIA week Next week: RBA Minutes, Aussie CPI, NVIDIA earnings, Jackson Hole, and the "Next Winners in AI" webinar. General advice only. AFSL 579 757.

Bulls vs Bears Ep. 132 — The Forgotten Themes of 2026. It's been a quiet week, so the team digs into the thematics that got buried by geopolitics and headlines. Rare earths are down 41% from highs and JT lays out three catalysts for a comeback. Software caught a private equity bid on Workday. Kai explains AI sandbox escapes and why cybersecurity keeps running. Plus, an ASX earnings wrap, next week's big reports (NAB, BHP, CSL, JB Hi-Fi), the private equity wave sweeping ASX mid-caps, and why the "neocloud" might be where the next phase of AI investing really kicks in. General advice only. AFSL 556167.

EP131: AI & SaaS Bounce as Investors Regain Belief The full crew reunites — JT's back from holiday, Phil's settling in, and markets are at all-time highs across the board. Record ETF inflows, fear & greed stuck at 40, and ASX earnings season is off to a flying start. We unpack AMP's gap-up, Credit Corp's algo-driven sell-off (and why buying it at the open was the move), James Hardie's US aftermarket rally, and the Nick Scali playbook. In the US, Microsoft and Amazon saved the week while Google's AI team had a mass exodus. The SaaS apocalypse is over — CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Atlassian are up 100%+ from lows. Kai's five pillars trade continues to deliver. Big segment on the "Situational Awareness" hedge fund that went from $45B AUM to near-zero on a 20% move. We talk Kelly Criterion, Martingale strategy, and why position sizing is the real edge. Plus: gold bouncing off $4,200, commodities turning green, Trump commoditising insider trading, AI model benchmarks, and our Bulls vs Bears calls for next week.

Memory chip stocks delivered some of the most violent moves we've ever seen this week — Micron down 9% then up 18%, SK Hynix down 15% then up 29%. The index barely moved. Welcome to Chiplash. We break down the chip carnage, Microsoft's best day since 2007, Amazon's AI cloud hitting a US$26B run rate, Meta getting sold off, the chip-to-software rotation, Australia's CPI surprise and what it means for rates, oil market spin from the US energy secretary, Korea's margin call crisis, and a viewer-suggested SaaS stock that actually passed the sniff test. Plus: JT wins the Bull/Bear comp from overseas. Kai almost picked Boeing. Phil gets most improved. New episodes weekly. mpcmarkets.com.au

We welcome Phil Deloughery to the team and dive straight into the hyperscaler CapEx blowout — Google's first-ever negative free cash flow quarter, Oracle's spend ballooning 26x in five years, and all the major cloud players expected to go negative free cash flow next year. Plus: Iran escalation and Houthi disruption shutting down the Bab el-Mandeb strait, US oil reserves at 45-year lows, Brent at $100, Tesla down 14% on zero robotaxi/Optimus updates, Aussie employment blowing past expectations (+76K) making another rate hike near-certain, the ASX SaaS stocks getting crushed, and Trump slapping tariffs on Australia under a forced labour technicality. Next week is massive — RBA, FOMC, Aussie CPI, US GDP, core PCE, plus Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon earnings. Stay sharp. Free portfolio review at mpcmarkets.com.au

Chip stocks are getting hammered. TSMC beat earnings by 10%+ and still dropped. Netflix lost 9% after pulling more transparency. IBM got flogged 37%. Is this the dip to buy — or the start of something worse? Mark, Finn and Kai break down the wreckage, the CapEx risk heading into Alphabet and Tesla earnings, and where the real opportunities are sitting. Oil gets a deep dive — US reserves at 40-year lows, Hormuz back in crisis mode, and refining margins 20% above previous records. Buy-the-dip picks include Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Coinbase, and Arista Networks. Kai explains why Arista's open-source networking switches are the essential plumbing of every AI data center. All three hosts are bearish. New team member Phil Deloughery debuts next week.

The optimists are away — JT's sailing to Japan and Finn's in Tonga with the whales — so the ex-bond traders are running the show. Mark walks through 12 risk factors that have been quietly building: record margin lending, rock-bottom cash allocations, almost zero downside protection, and corporate bond demand starting to dry up. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector is splitting in two — memory chip makers are printing money while the hyperscalers writing the cheques are starting to feel it. Plus: Meta making its own chips, Apple's luxury AR glasses play, the India-Australia uranium deal, copper's relentless grind higher, and why next week's US bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, BofA, Wells Fargo) could set the tone for the quarter. And yes — Mark has finally overtaken Kai on the leaderboard after 191 days. Not financial advice. General advice warning applies. Do your own research.

The best first half in the Dow in fifty years is in the books. Mark, Kai and guest Finn unpack a monster six months — the record SOX rally, why chips just cracked (Micron down 20% in two sessions), and where the money's rotating next. Plus: the ASX halftime card, why healthcare could finally be turning, Kai's Pro Medicus trade of the half year, and a deep dive into the AI stack — infrastructure, cloud, application — and why the cloud distribution layer is the opportunity most investors are sleeping on. MPC Markets also turns three. Happy birthday to us.

Micron beat earnings by $6 billion and hit record highs. Memory chip stocks — MU, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Lam Research — are all running. The catch? It's coming out of the Mag-7's margins. Hyperscalers are paying through the nose for HBM RAM and it shows in their charts. This is the clearest divergence in the AI trade right now. We also cover SpaceX raising $85.5B in equity plus a $25B corporate bond and reportedly building its own gas pipeline for data centers. Sam Altman has pushed the OpenAI API IPO to next year. CATL dropped a sodium energy storage system — bad timing for lithium stocks. On the ASX: WiseTech hitting new lows, Telix eyeing FDA approval for EchoIQ by September. Plus commodities swinging wildly, Apple hiking prices across the board, and Fear and Greed sitting at Extreme Fear while Micron breaks records. Episode 125 of Bulls vs Bears from MPC Markets.

Bulls vs Bears EP124: The Next Mega IPOs — SpaceX, OpenAI vs Anthropic & What Actually Matters SpaceX just listed. OpenAI is burning $14B this year. Anthropic just hit a $965B post-money valuation. So which one is actually investable — and which ones are traps? In this week’s episode, Mark Gardner, Kai and JT cut through the noise on the biggest IPO and AI stories moving markets right now. We break down: The full SpaceX share lock-up release schedule and the five dates that could make or break the stock (QQQ inclusion, Starship Flight 13, Q2/Q3 earnings unlocks, and Musk’s 366-day lockup) Why Anthropic is eating OpenAI’s lunch in enterprise (40% LLM market share vs OpenAI’s 27%, 80% of revenue from business customers, and 15.7x valuation growth in 14 months) OpenAI’s staggering scale (900M weekly active users, 2.5B prompts/day) versus its $14B losses and cash-flow-positive target of 2029 Technical setups across ASX200, Nikkei (fresh record highs), Nasdaq and global indices Commodity moves in gold, silver, crude and the surprising HPA (High Purity Alumina) trade that’s flying under the radar What the new Fed chair, US-Iran deal and memory chip shortage actually mean for positioning Blunt practitioner takes. No guru dogma. Just what the data and flow are really saying. Listen now & subscribe: https://mpcinvest.co/podcasts Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro, track record & weekly market colour 05:30 – SpaceX IPO deep dive + cumulative unlock timeline 18:00 – Five dates that could make or break SpaceX 25:00 – OpenAI vs Anthropic: The real AI arms race 38:00 – Why Anthropic is winning enterprise (and what it means for valuations) 45:00 – Technicals, global markets & commodity wrap (gold, silver, crude, uranium, HPA) 52:00 – Next week’s data & closing thoughts #SpaceXIPO #OpenAI #Anthropic #AIStocks #MegaIPO #InvestmentPodcast #BullsVsBears #MPC Markets

🚀 SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic: Are the 3 MEGA IPOs Signalling a Market Bubble? | Bulls vs Bears In this week's Bulls vs Bears, Mark Gardner and the team dive deep into the biggest financial story of 2026 — the wave of mega IPOs that could reshape global markets. With SpaceX reportedly listing at $1.77 trillion , alongside OpenAI and Anthropic, we're witnessing what could be the three largest IPOs in history. Is this the peak of market euphoria or the start of a new era in space, AI, and technology investing? We break down: The explosive valuations and retail frenzy around SpaceX IPO — Elon Musk's latest rocket ride What these listings mean for the broader market, tech stocks, semiconductors (NVIDIA, Broadcom, Apple), and the S&P 500 Fresh economic data: Strong payrolls, sticky CPI & PPI inflation, and what to expect from the upcoming Fed meeting Geopolitical drama with Trump, Iran, and oil market impacts Crypto update: Bitcoin weakness, Hyperliquid strength, and MicroStrategy's strategy shift Why long-term investors should stay grounded amid the hype Perfect for Australian investors aged 55+ looking for clear, no-nonsense analysis on wealth preservation , structured income solutions, and navigating record-high markets. Whether you're protecting your retirement portfolio or seeking high-growth opportunities, this episode delivers practical insights you can act on. Timestamps & Chapters available in the full video. If you're serious about smarter investing in volatile times, subscribe to Bulls vs Bears for weekly market updates, strategy sessions, and expert commentary you won't get from the mainstream media. 👉 Explore MPC Markets structured investment solutions at mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au

Bulls vs Bears Ep 122 | 10-Week Win Streak Starts to Wobble — Dow Rallies, NASDAQ Dips & Software Stocks Update The S&P 500's historic 10-week winning streak is under pressure. In this episode of Bulls vs Bears from MPC Markets, Mark Gardner, JT, and Kai break down a week where old-school indices fought back — the Dow and Russell 2000 both surged ~1.5% while the NASDAQ slipped 0.5%. What we cover in this episode: 00:00 — The 10-week streak wobbles: Dow & Russell rally, tech pulls backMicron joins the trillion-dollar club after an extraordinary run from ~$419 to $1,080. Samsung memory workers threaten strike action over pay disparity. We discuss what the memory chip shortage means for investors. Megaport (ASX: MP1) delivered a 3x return off its lows, hitting $21 after languishing at $7. The company's pivot to GPUs-as-a-service raises questions about enterprise AI hosting and whether companies should run their own language models. Software Survivors update — our picks from the original webinar are tracked with full performance data. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto up ~90% since recommendation. We revisit which SaaS names face genuine AI disruption risk vs those with durable moats (Xero, ServiceNow, Snowflake, Atlassian). Jonathan explains the stock repair options strategy — a way to reduce your average entry price without deploying additional capital. We discuss why MPC is considering an "Options for Dummies" education series. Coal prices remain resilient near $160 while crude oil has been volatile. Strategic petroleum reserves are reportedly at critical levels. Bitcoin has broken to new lows for the year after Michael Saylor flagged potential BTC sales to fund dividends. All three hosts pick bearish for next week — a consensus that has historically been a contrarian signal. Key risks: US employment data (NFP), CPI, and Oracle/Adobe earnings. Register for the Software Survivors Sequel webinar (link in comments). This is general information only and not personal financial advice. MPC Markets is an Australian financial services firm — AFSL applies. #ASXStocks #BullsVsBears #MPCMarkets #SoftwareStocks #Micron #Megaport #OptionsTrading

🎙️ Bulls vs Bears Podcast EP121: Fresh Record Highs for Stocks on AI Frenzywith Jonathan Tacadena & Mark Gardner from MPC Markets In this episode of Bulls vs Bears, Jonathan Tacadena (JT) and Mark Gardner (MG) break down the explosive market action as global stocks hit fresh record highs, fuelled by the unrelenting AI frenzy. From Nvidia and the Magnificent 7 dominating the US market heatmap to strong moves in Apple, Broadcom, and other tech giants — the bulls are charging. We also dissect the ASX heatmap, where miners and select stocks are holding their own amid the global rally. What we cover in EP121: US & Australian market heatmaps – who’s winning and who’s lagging in the AI-driven rally Inflation update : US PCE jumps to 3.8% headline / 3.3% core in April — what does it mean for the Fed? Global indices snapshot – ASX200, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq & Russell 2000 performance (daily & 5-day) Commodities check : Gold, Silver, Crude oil plunge, Iron ore, Bitcoin, and more Explosive growth in Australian ETFs – record FUM and cumulative YTD net flows hitting $20.7b US equity flows – what the big money is doing behind the scenes Volatility & market sentiment – Fear & Greed Index at 60 (Greed) + scorecard update Global economic calendar – key events & earnings for 1–6 June 2026 (Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, tech earnings & more) Plus the usual no-holds-barred debate between the Bulls and Bears — who came out on top this week? 📺 Watch now and decide: Are we in a sustainable AI supercycle or is this the top of the frenzy? 🎧 Listen on your favourite platform: → Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify→ Follow @mpcmarkets

SpaceX is heading to the Nasdaq — and it could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. In Episode 120 of Bulls vs Bears, the MPC Markets team unpacks the SpaceX IPO: valuation, timeline, and a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion (that's 25% of global GDP). We also dig into NVIDIA's record earnings and why explosive growth might have a ceiling, Anthropic hitting $10 billion in monthly revenue ahead of schedule, the Cerebras "wafer-scale" chip that's redefining AI inference, Elon's plan to build data centers on the moon using Optimus robots, bond yields flashing red at 5.9% on the 30-year while equity markets look the other way, private credit defaults at a record high, and the collapse of Australian property investor demand following negative gearing changes. Plus — next week we're joined by a guest breaking down how you can get pre-IPO SpaceX exposure right now through blockchain prediction markets. New episodes every week. Subscribe so you never miss a market-moving conversation. Powered by MPC Markets | Discover Mosaic at mpcmarkets.com.au — portfolio and trade ideas in one place.

Bulls vs Bears: GPUs, CPUs & TPUs Rocket Higher on IOUs | AI Chip Financing Exposed + ASX Budget Reaction In this week's episode of Bulls vs Bears, Mark Gardner and Kai Chen (JT is on tin-foil leave) dive deep into the explosive semiconductor rally. Nvidia, Micron, AMD, and the entire SOX index are surging — but how much is real demand vs circular vendor financing and IOU accounting? We break down: The complex web of AI chip financing, vendor deals, and backlog accounting between Nvidia, hyperscalers, and startups CPU vs GPU vs TPU explained simply (perfect for beginners) Cerebras IPO — 30x oversubscribed and up 68% on day one Software Survivors strategy up 243% since early March Why Tesla is now trading like a chip stock Micron's insane run and why we trimmed ASX Market Update: Banks hammered post-Budget, resources surging (52% reversal since we called the rotation in Sept 2024) Gold/Silver moves, copper strength, and BHP's relative underperformance Full Australian Federal Budget breakdown: Capital gains tax changes, negative gearing, trust restructures — what it means for investors and property Plus: Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, Kai Chen turning bearish, and why the market feels frothy yet unstoppable. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro & Semiconductor Madness05:30 Circular AI Financing Explained12:45 CPU vs GPU vs TPU Breakdown22:00 ASX Rotation & Budget Impact35:00 Bulls vs Bears Calls A high-energy (slightly exhausted) look at the AI boom, market rotations, and what’s next for investors. Keywords: Nvidia stock, AI chips, semiconductor rally, SOX index, Cerebras IPO, Australian Budget 2026, capital gains tax, negative gearing, ASX resources, Tesla stock, Micron, GPU explained, vendor financing Feeling lost in these markets? Check out Mosaic by MPC Markets — clear portfolio guidance and trade ideas in one place. Subscribe for weekly Bulls vs Bears, market recaps, and investing strategies from Australia’s sharpest minds. #Nvidia #AIStocks #ASX #Semiconductors #Investing

Mark, Kai and JT from MPC Markets are back for Episode 118 of Bulls vs Bears: “Peace, Love and Semiconductors.” This week, the team breaks down record highs across global equity markets, the ASX lagging after the RBA, oil’s sharp moves, sticky inflation, rising bond yields, and the relentless semiconductor and AI trade. They also dig into Nvidia, data centres, market concentration, thematic ETFs, commodities, and why structured index exposure may be a smarter core strategy than chasing the next hype stock. Markets are hot, risk is rising, and the boys have plenty to say. Subscribe for weekly market commentary from MPC Markets.