The Contrarians with Adam and Adir

Luke Laretive joins Adam and Adir to unpack how Seneca approaches active investing, why its small-cap fund uses an unusually aligned fee structure, and where he still sees opportunities in an increasingly passive market. They dig into Australian Finance Group’s mortgage and lending business, HMC Capital’s brutal repricing, HealthCo and Healthscope, DigiCo, private credit and why the market may be overlooking some very cheap assets. 00:00 - Luke Laretive and Seneca 16:05 - AFG Deep Dive 32:14 - HMC Capital Deep Dive 40:11 - HealthCo, DigiCo and Private Credit This episode was part of a paid partnership with Seneca Financial Solutions. We thank them for supporting the pod and keeping all of our content free. Visit https://senecafs.com.au/ to learn more. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir record live from The Commons in Cremorne, covering Australia’s worsening housing and rent crisis, Apple’s rumoured folding iPhone, the company’s pricing power, and whether AI’s frontier model economics can survive customers moving to cheaper alternatives. Chris Judd then joins to talk markets, uncertainty, inflation, US debt, Cogstate, MAAS Group, Firmus, data centres, founder-led investing and why the best returns often come from backing people prepared to think differently. 00:00 - Live From The Commons 03:07 - Australia’s Housing and Rent Crisis 19:02 - Apple’s Folding iPhone 30:30 - AI Models and Data Centres 35:10 - Chris Judd Joins Pod 46:31 - Chris Judd’s Macro View5 8:18 - Cogstate 1:03:37 - MAAS Group and Firmus 1:16:02 - Founder-Led Investing A big thank you to the team at The Commons for hosting our first live episode of the pod (or something like that). You can link to their website here: https://www.thecommons.com.au/ Link to Cerutty Macro Fund: https://ceruttymacrofund.com.au/ Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir debate whether founders and senior executives should be allowed to sit on external boards while running a business, before turning to the coming pressure on big law fees as AI starts breaking the traditional leverage model. They also unpack Yo-Chi’s extraordinary rise, its reported billion-dollar-plus valuation, global expansion plans, store economics, and why timing, product and execution can turn a good retail concept into a monster business. 01:05 - The CEO Board Seat Debate 09:26 - AI Comes For Big Law 24:29 - Yo-Chi’s $2bn Valuation 29:54 - Why Yo-Chi Worked 38:55 - Yo-Chi’s Global Upside Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack Expert360’s painful sale, why founders need to think carefully about golden windows, and what CTM’s return to the ASX says about survival, short sellers and investor risk. They also dig into Iran’s blockade problem, student politics at Monash, Alastair Clarkson’s messy North Melbourne exit, and the athlete rich list quiz that turns into a bigger conversation about brand, equity and celebrity power. 00:00 - Intro 12:20 - Alistair Clarkson & North Melbourne 25:08 - Student Politics at Monash 36:17 - The Athlete Rich List Quiz 50:30 - Iran and the Straight of Hormuz 1:02:30 - Expert360 1:16:04 - CTM Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ Try Braze

Australia’s retail stocks are getting smashed, but Adam and Adir think the sell-off could finally be creating opportunities in businesses like JB Hi-Fi, Kogan and Koala. Meanwhile, Cettire has lost 95% of its value in two years and its latest results raise even more questions about how long the luxury retailer can keep going. 00:00 Australian Retail Stocks Are Getting Smashed 12:41 Kogan, Temple & Webster and Koala 16:40 Cettire’s Collapse & The Art of Contrarian Investing Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ Try Braze

Adam and Adir unpack the investor fight building around Canva, AirTree and the painful question of when early backers should finally get liquidity. They also dig into Xero’s shareholder revolt, Corporate Travel Management’s surprise rescue deal, Zoox’s lost upside, the return of hardware startups, and why Disney might be one of the rare businesses with almost every major competitive power. 00:00 - Defcon Merch and Tansu’s First Week 07:14 - Zoox 16:31 - Vanguard Smart Glasses 23:05 - Leo Esaki's Five Don'ts 27:47 - Disney's Hidden Powers 35:53 - GTA VI 43:13 - Eureka Pet Co. 48:20 - Victoria's Crime Problem 58:04 - Canva 1:13:19 - Xero's Shareholder Revolt 1:20:40 - CTM The first 20 listeners to use code "TCfirst20" at Tanssu.com will redeem the offer mentioned in this week's episode: https://www.tanssu.com/discount/TCfirst20 . Add “The Set” to your cart in any colour. Then at checkout, the code will remove the cost of the tote. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack the strange economics of AI, with OpenAI burning billions, Anthropic claiming explosive growth, and investors still trying to work out where the real profits will come from. They also dig into Temple & Webster’s brutal share price collapse, the limits of its retail model, and why even strong operators can struggle inside a brutally hard business. 00:00 - OpenAI, Anthropic and The AI Money Problem 14:39 - Temple & Webster Gets Whacked Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir are joined by negotiation expert Vicki Medvec to discuss how to negotiate better deals, use anchoring, understand BATNA, manage emotion, create multiple offers, avoid losing value at the finish line and solve the other side’s problem. Vicki also explains bucket issues, storytelling issues, negotiation power, cross-cultural differences and why the best negotiators focus less on themselves and more on what the other side really needs. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ Buy Vicki's Book: https://www.amazon.com.au/Negotiate-without-Fear-Strategies-Maximize/dp/1119719097

Adam and Adir cover a messy week of airports, taxis, AI tools and data privacy before turning to Sydney's Pullman Five and the erosion of the presumption of innocence in public life. They also unpack Culture Amp’s AI data changes, Spirit Airlines’ email archive being sold for training data, Guzman y Gomez’s impressive result, and Adir’s long, painful, surprisingly successful launch of his new luggage brand Tanssu. 00:00 - Wispr, RSI and The Curse in Disguise 07:12 - Telstra’s Futurama Phone Box Fail 10:13 - Mobile Phones, Parenting and Always Being Contactable 12:35 - Uber, Taxis and Airport Chaos 18:28 - Adir’s New York Cafe Story 22:23 - DEF CON, Delta Wi-Fi and Executive Deepfakes 36:01 - Sydney's Pullman Five and Presumption of Innocence 47:52 - Culture Amp, AI Training Data and Privacy 58:57 - Guzman y Gomez’s Big Result 1:21:06 - Tanssu Launch The first 20 listeners to use code "TCfirst20" at Tanssu.com will redeem the offer mentioned in this week's episode: https://www.tanssu.com/discount/TCfirst20 . Add “The Set” to your cart in any colour. Then at checkout, the code will remove the cost of the tote.

Adam and Adir unpack the growing pressure in Australia’s housing market, with falling prices, sticky inflation and the fallout from the federal budget creating a messy economic picture. They also dig into NVIDIA’s latest AI infrastructure financing play, why CUDA may not be as untouchable as it once looked, and whether the AI boom is starting to look more fragile. Plus, Canva’s valuation gets marked down, SaaS multiples come back to earth, and Blackbird raises another billion dollars. 00:00 - Australia's Housing Crash 10:21 - NVIDIA 24:45 - Canva's Valuation Markdown Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack San Francisco’s AI-fuelled tech boom, from Waymo and Zoox to Figma’s aggressive push and Lovable’s wild valuation. Later, Adir explains what DEF CON reveals about modern cybersecurity, before John Stensholt joins to discuss Tech Bros , Atlassian’s founder breakup and the strange billionaire world of Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar. GET YOUR TICKET TO THE CONTRARIANS LIVE! https://events.humanitix.com/the-contrarians-live John Stensholt's book 'Tech Bros' is available now: https://harpercollins.com.au/products/9781460769492 00:00 - San Francisco, Waymo and Zoox 08:00 - Figma, AI and the API Boom 17:15 - Lovable’s $13bn Valuation 21:45 - Contrarians Live Show Announcement 26:30 - LinkedIn’s Algorithm Problem 31:30 - DEF CON, Hackers and Cybersecurity 51:15 - John Stensholt on Tech Bros and Atlassian Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Hear Blackbird's Rick Baker, Airtree's Craig Blair and Jelix's Ian Gardiner discuss the AI Bubble, CGT Founder Chaos and Australia's Startup Future Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir discuss Zoox, Waymo, autonomous cars, Xero’s strange Vegas advertising, Sukhinder Singh Cassidy, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, Delta One, airline lounges, Jetstar’s carry-on bag crackdown, Ryanair, Canva’s slowing growth, AI design tools, Claude, OpenAI, Figma, Atlassian’s profit pivot and the future of Australia’s biggest tech companies. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir discuss Canva’s slowing growth, its $60 billion valuation, Figma, Meta, AI design tools, OpenAI, Anthropic, the pressure on Australia’s biggest private tech company, eBay’s corporate terrorism scandal, the Steiners, Devin Wenig, CEO accountability, the $55 million settlement and why corporate consequences rarely reach the top. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir discuss Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, credit card fees, AI chatbots, bad customer experience, the “logo CEO” problem, Qantas, Alan Joyce, self-managed super property changes, Gen Z drinking habits, OSW and the battery boom, Anthony Fauci, COVID lockdowns, Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI fund blow-up, Anthropic, Nvidia and the AI bubble. 01:07 - Victoria's Leadership Change 06:52 - Credit Cards 13:20 - AI Customer Service 18:26 - Logo Changes and Rebrands 27:08 - Alan Joyce 41:08. - Property Rules 51:59 - OSW 1:03:22 - Fauci, COVID and the Pandemic Reckoning 1:16:30 - Leo Lats, AI Leverage and Bubble Behaviour Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir discuss Tesla’s profit collapse, Elon Musk’s valuation premium, robotaxis, self-driving, BYD, SpaceX, Starlink, Richard White, Immutable, blockchain gaming, NFTs, crypto tokens, Australia’s unicorn bubble and the $3.5 billion valuation that never made sense. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam and Adir discuss the Labor Party conference, Ed Husic, Jacinta Allan’s political problems, Victoria’s unemployment rate, a 1998 celebrity earnings quiz, Etched and the AI chip race, Nvidia, OpenAI, KPMG’s Lendlease audit scandal, Waymo vs Uber, Revolut, bank fees, Jim Chalmers’ housing policy and Australia’s property risk. Watch the video Adam mentions: https://www.instagram.com/reels/DbNXhESCeXM/ 2:06 - Ed Husic and the Gaza Debate 8:46 - Jacinta Allen and Victorian Labor 13:45 - Work From Home Laws 19:19 - Highest Earning Celebrities of 1998 35:33 - Nvidia's Margin Problem 57:11 - KPMG 1:00:36 - Waymo 1:09:53 - Mid Roll 1:10:17 - Revolut 1:17:53 - First Home Buyers Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam and Adir discuss luxury hotel inflation, Instagram status games, SpaceX’s valuation drop, Starlink’s powers, Tesla vs BYD, Australia’s best-selling cars, Atlassian’s Loom problem, Mike Cannon-Brookes and Adam’s safari life. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam and Adir discuss safari business lessons, England vs Argentina, Murderbot Diaries and $0.99 Kindle funnels, Uber One, Lux Plus, Marxism, social democracy, Xero’s CEO share sale, SEN circling ARN, Jackie O, 4DMedical, Pro Medicus comparisons and meme stock valuations. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ 00:00 - Adam’s Safari Experience 11:08 - England vs Argentina and Why Playing Defence Kills Winners 15:35 - 99c Kindle Funnel 22:14 - Uber One vs Lux Plus 31:20 - Collective Noun Quiz 36:17 - Marxism & Capitalism 55:10 - Xero’s CEO Share Sale 1:15:38 - SEN & ARN 1:26:04 - 4DMedical

Adam & Adir examine Bending Spoon's extraordinary rise, its blockbuster IPO, comparisons with Berkshire Hathaway and Constellation Software, the risks created by its aggressive use of leverage, and whether Bending Spoons is an ingenious software conglomerate or an enormously overvalued house of cards. Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/