The Risk Takers Podcast

Pre-Order "Advantage Player": https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/826945/advantage-player-by-gina-fiore/ This week GP and SP sit down w/ Gina Fiore, one of the most prolific winners in the history of advantage play. Gina has won counting cards, hole carding, edge sorting, playing slots, poker, sports, casino bonus play and other moves across a successful AP career. A career so interesting that HBO is making a show out of her memoir "Advantage Player" that is being released next month. Please pre-order to help Gina out because we promise you will be reading this book - it's so good! 0:00 Intro 07:00 Card Counting 15:00 Hole Carding & Advanced AP 50:30 Edge Sorting 1:01:30 Team Play 1:14:00 Going Public & AP Life 1:39:00 Q&A Gina's Substack: https://substack.com/@rxgamble?r=3xlh0k&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=stories&shareImageVariant=light Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP and GP go through all of the software they are currently using in the prediction market trading and why they think it's useful. News is spicy with the incorrect settlement of the Mich/WMU that lead to absolute chaos on Kalshi and the long downtime of Poly US on the first college football saturday. 0:00 Tech Stack 30:30 College Football PM Chaos 1:12:28 Underdog Announcement 1:23:15 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP & SP sit down with Richard Lee - a PM trader that came a different route than most of our guests. Richard built his trading firm before PMs as a market maker of meme coins back in the 2017 crypto boom. After that he tried to build his own prediction market, before deciding the better decision was to just trade on the existing ones. 0:00 Intro to Advantage Play 11:00 Crypto Market Making 33:45 Transition to Prediction Markets 1:13:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP start the episode off by listing 6 things they are focusing on for NFL this year on prediction markets. Then they get to the news - which includes Kalshi putting RFQ maker fees on and ETR & Rufus taking some public projections/ models private for use on prediction markets. 0:00 Keys to NFL on PMs 22:30 News 47:00 ETR & Rufus go Private 1:08:45 Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode we are joined by high stakes cash/ tournament poker player Lewis Spencer. We talk to Lewis about his path to playing in the biggest poker games/ tournaments: what it takes to win, how the game has changed with AI, and the state of the poker economy today. Then Lewis walks us through what skills have been transferrable to his prediction market trading - and how he is approaching finding edge using his experience beating the highest stakes poker games. Plus an epic Isildur1 story at the end that I don't think has been told yet! 0:00 Start in poker 47:30 Transferring Poker Skills to Prediction Markets and Sports Betting 1:14:40 Current PM trading 1:38:30 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP recap their experience at BetBash including the live podcast. Then we clear a backlog of the most important news topics and make a case for recreational gambling. 0:00 BetBash Recap 40:30 News Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

On this episode we are joined by Henry Kerins - CEO of Manhattan Athletic Group and one of the earliest employees at NoVig. MAG spun off of NoVig as an internal trading team and now trades almost every sports market across multiple venues. This is a must listen for those building their own trading operations in the space! 0:00 Intro 50:15 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we have a Q&A extravaganza. 42 questions were asked on Twitter - and we get through all of them besides 2 golf questions that one of the hosts decided to cut out (not naming names). News includes someone gaming the mysterious world cup PM sponsor, ADI Predictstreet & an ice cream shop "hedging" on Kalshi. Substack Mentioned: https://pmpulse.substack.com/ 0:00 Q&A Round 1 52:15 News 1:24:30 Q&A Round 2 Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we are joined by professional horse bettor Dennis Montoro (https://x.com/dennycaps1) about all things horse betting. Denny explains why getting a good fair is only one of the important modeling problems in horse racing and a lot of general advice on how to win at peer to peer games. 0:00 Intro 15:30 Pari-mutuel Betting 51:00 Rebates & CAWs 1:14:10 Modelling Horse Racing 1:37:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets. The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors. 0:00 Traits of Top Bettors 28:30 News 1:11:00 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets. Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have. 0:00 Sports Betting 30:30 Prediction Markets 1:10:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode SP and GP get into the first World Cup on Prediction Markets. The insanity of this world cup has surpassed our wildest expectations and we discuss what makes it unlike anything we have ever seen before. Big news and a lot of questions follow - enjoy! 0:00 First World Cup on Prediction Markets 36:00 News 1:04:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today GP and SP talk to James Gettinger, founding partner of Gutter Capital - one of the top preforming VC funds in the world. Why is James on our podcast you might ask? Well, before venture capital, James was one of the most profitable Daily Fantasy Sports players of all time. He pioneered contest simulations and was a first mover in many strategies that now are common amongst the best players. That ability to make the plays conventional wisdom says are stupid not only made him millions in DFS - but give him a big edge in a similar game in VC. It was great to have James on - as he proves that the people that succeed in our industry can go out and crush other industries. 0:00 Intro/ Poker 14:30 Transition to DFS 52:00 Going from DFS to VC Apply to Elbow Grease: https://elbowgrease.cc/ Gutter Capital: https://www.gutter.cc/ Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

First we welcome SP back to the podcast and he shares some exciting life news that explains his absence last week. Then SP and GP both give an example of an originating edge that they had at some point - not shocking that the "sports" are Golf and League of Legends. Big news week and some great questions follow. 0:00 Dead Originating Edges 33:10 News 1:17:30 Questions Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week SP is AFK so we get Mr. PeanutBettor to sub in as a guest host. We cover who we think will be most helped by AI along with a lot of news and great questions. Clearly SP holds the show together because this went off the rails and became the longest episode yet. 00:00 AI in Sports Betting 40:30 News 1:13:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we kick it off with some lessons we learned retroactively from sportsbooks after we started market making on prediction markets. Then we cover the news - including the Matt Kalish v. Kalshi saga that is still going strong 2 weeks in. Then we hit one of the longest Q&As in history to clear our backlog of questions! 0:00 What Sportsbooks Got Right 25:30 News 1:14:00 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week SP and GP are joined by Troy (https://x.com/troycuban) to talk about how he has made over $700k on Kalshi this year despite never originating a bet in his life. Troy is slightly different than our typical guest (only slightly) in that he comes from a traditional finance background and now only does RFQs full time. This could be the deepest dive recorded into the most important market on Kalshi! 0:00 Intro to Sports Betting 29:00 Everything RFQs 1:19:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show. Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threats to your bankroll looming around every corner and being defensive is the game. We touch on FanDuel and DraftKings getting into the PM space as market makers on the exchanges - and have another great Mr. PeanutBettor question of the week. 0:00 How we define risk on PMs 10:40 Listener Risk Qs 1:28:40 News 1:48:00 Random Listener Qs Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it! Follow Clay on twitter: https://x.com/alter_clay 0:00 Intro 13:00 Getting Started w/ Sports Betting 38:00 Switching to Kalshi 1:18:40 Listener Questions Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Nerd alert. The main topic is a discussion on deterministic v. probabilistic models in the current betting environment. News includes the solider who bet on himself to capture a foreign leader and made $440k before getting arrested and a rant on the people complaining about FandDuels injury insurance. 0:00 Deterministic v. Stochastic Sports Models 26:00 News 1:05:15 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013