Pivotal States

President Trump entered office promising a historic breakthrough with Iran. Instead, the United States finds itself in a costly war with no clear end in sight. Despite moments of optimism for diplomacy, fighting persists, raising difficult questions about why Washington has repeatedly failed to escape decades of conflict with Tehran. Why has it proven so difficult for successive administrations—Republican and Democratic alike—to replace confrontation with diplomacy? What political and strategic forces keep pulling the United States back toward conflict? And what does the current war mean for America's interests, the Middle East, and the years ahead? In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher Chivvis is joined by Robert Malley of Yale University's Jackson School, a lead U.S. negotiator for the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, and Carnegie's Stephen Wertheim to examine these questions.

For decades, the U.S.-Israel relationship has been one of the closest partnerships in American foreign policy. Today, that relationship is under immense strain. Israel's brutal response to the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and the costs of the war on Iran have fueled serious questions about the wisdom of continued U.S. support for Israel. The growing gap between American and Israeli interests is becoming harder than ever to ignore. So, is this a turning point in the U.S.-Israel relationship? If so, what changes are actually possible? What leverage does Washington have over Israel, and why has it been so reluctant to use it? On this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher Chivvis is joined by Matt Duss, Executive Vice President at the Center for International Policy, and Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss whether America is ready to reset its relationship with Israel, and what that reset might look like.

For decades, U.S. policy toward North Korea has been organized around a single objective: denuclearization. Yet despite sanctions, diplomatic initiatives, and pressure campaigns, Pyongyang has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal while deepening its ties with Russia and China. Christopher Chivvis speaks to Dr. Victor Cha, one of the world's leading experts on North Korea, to examine how America became trapped in a failing strategy and what a more realistic U.S. policy might look like.

Germany is the key power in Europe today. The future of the continent—and America's relations with it—will hinge on decisions made in Berlin. Yet the relationship is under mounting strain amid the war with Iran, President Trump's claims on Greenland, and possible withdrawals of U.S. troops from Germany. Has longstanding trust between Washington and Berlin been irreparably broken? What can Germany and America do to capitalize on shared interests in the future? Is it even worth trying? Christopher Chivvis speaks with Sophia Besch, Senior Fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In Washington, policymakers frame competition with China as a zero-sum contest for power. But does slowing China’s progress actually benefit Americans—or is it a fool’s errand? What might a more stable future for U.S.-China relations look like, and what would it take to achieve it? In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and author of the forthcoming book, What China Wants: And What it Means for the World to unpack the most significant bilateral relationship in the world today. They discuss what each side wants from the other and explore what framework the United States should adopt to manage relations going forward.

For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. Some U.S. officials are even predicting the imminent collapse of its longstanding communist regime. But what does the United States actually want from Cuba? What do past U.S. policies toward Cuba tell us about America's options for getting the change it seeks? In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher Chivvis speaks with Michael J. Bustamante, Associate Professor of History and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. They discuss U.S. strategic interests in Cuba, the Trump administration’s approach toward the Island, and scenarios for the future.

From 'spheres of influence' to 'naked imperialism' to 'peace through strength,' analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind. Over the past year, he has rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Whether one views this record as beneficial or damaging to American interests, one thing seems clear: Trump has unleashed American power on the world stage, creating extraordinary uncertainty for the future world order. So, how is Trump’s foreign policy shaping the world? To find the signal in the noise, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Visiting Lecturer at Yale Law School.

President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and what comes next. What are U.S. national interests in Venezuela in the first place? What does the United States stand to gain from a policy of maximizing control over Venezuela? And how does the U.S. operation in Venezuela impact the region, and even world order? To explore the consequences for the United States, Latin America, and the world, Christopher S. Chivvis is joined by Oliver Stuenkel, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo.

U.S.–Iranian animosity has persisted relentlessly for more than four decades. From the Cold War to the unipolar moment to today’s multipolar world, tensions between the United States and Iran have remained a constant in an otherwise shifting geopolitical landscape. Understandably, Washington blames Tehran. But where does American agency fit into this story? Where have U.S. policymakers missed chances to reset the relationship? And what stands in the way of charting a new course? In her new book, Enduring Hostility, Dalia Dassa Kaye examines how America’s foreign-policy elite, from Reagan through Biden, have understood and shaped relations with Iran. On Pivotal States, she joins host Christopher S. Chivvis to discuss how America's choices have contributed to the stubborn antagonism between the two countries, and what it will take to change the script.

The contest to stay on the leading edge of AI is rapidly taking center stage in America’s strategic competition with China. But what does it actually mean to beat China in AI? Does the United States have the right strategy for navigating this contest? Are policymakers overstating the threats posed by China, or by artificial intelligence itself? And can Washington and Beijing cooperate on areas of high risk even as they compete intensely elsewhere? In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Colin H. Kahl, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Biden administration, to unpack the peril and the promise of U.S.–China competition in AI.

President Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He sent his negotiator Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and even hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high-profile summit in Alaska this August. But despite these moves, the war grinds on with no resolution in sight. Negotiations have stalled as Russia continues to demand sweeping concessions. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump is now pressing for more assertive international action against Moscow, even as his own willingness to impose further costs on Russia remains unclear. The path forward looks increasingly grim, and the limits of U.S. influence in Ukraine are becoming ever more apparent. So what kind of outcome is realistically achievable— and at what cost? To assess the dilemmas inherent in America’s policy toward Ukraine, Chris Chivvis speaks with Thomas Wright, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

This summer, during a trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated that the Indo-Pacific is the U.S. Department of Defense’s priority theater. Yet unlike Europe, the region still lacks a multilateral defense alliance, relying instead on a patchwork of bilateral ties and minilateral arrangements. Should the U.S. push for a formal defense pact in the Pacific? Advocates say a new alliance would bring stability and peace, while critics argue it would escalate tensions with China. In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Dr. Ely Ratner of the Marathon Initiative to unpack the risks and benefits. Dr. Ely Ratner, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs for the Biden administration, lays out his vision in a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact.”

In his second term, President Trump cast himself as a “peacemaker and unifier” and tried to bring a swift end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Six months later, however, those conflicts continue, and last month Trump launched strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran. What has actually changed? Is Trump altering the trajectory of American global power or ultimately delivering more of the same? Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, from the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program, as they unpack Trump’s second-term record thus far and discuss Stephen’s new essay in the New York Times, “Trump Wants to Put America First. He Has No Idea How.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/opinion/trump-america-foreign-policy.html

Few relationships are as fraught, and as consequential, as America and Iran’s. The Trump administration inherited a golden opportunity to strike a deal, but the path has been anything but smooth. With the Trump now in nuclear talks with Iran, the question looms: Could this be a Nixon-to-China moment? What would a deal mean for the region? What benefits could it bring, and what’s at stake? Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, as they break down the strategic choices in U.S.-Iran relations.

America’s relationship with the United Kingdom is one of the deepest in the world, but in the face of changing interests and new geopolitical pressures, how important will the UK be to the future of American statecraft? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made it clear that London will not choose between the U.S. and the EU. But navigating this delicate balance isn’t easy. Where is the “special relationship” between London and Washington heading? Does the UK have what it takes to safeguard Europe’s security, with less help from America? Can the U.S. and the UK agree on China? In this episode of Pivotal States , Christopher S. Chivvis explores the U.S.-UK relationship with Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. The Trump administration’s push for a Ukraine settlement has led many to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. What do leaders in Taipei think of these geopolitical changes? What’s the pulse of the Taiwan public? To find out, American Statecraft Program and national security experts Christopher S. Chivvis, Stephen Wertheim, Brett Rosenberg, and Matthew Duss visited Taipei and met with Taiwan's officials and thought leaders. In this episode of Pivotal States, they share their takeaways and delve into the United States' policy challenge in Taiwan.

Winners and losers—every major transition has them. For the world to meet its climate goals, it needs to undergo a partial shift away from traditional meat and toward alternative proteins. But who would be the winners and losers of a global protein transition? In Episode 6, we investigate what this transition might look like and what it could mean for national security and geopolitics.

There’s a lot to learn from the lobster. Its transformation from disdained prison food to fine-dining delicacy reveals how culture shapes our palate and how people could start to get a taste for food that does less damage to the planet than a bacon cheeseburger. In Episode 5, we look to the future of alternative proteins—from bean burgers to lab-grown nuggets—and ask what it would look like to live in a world less centered on traditional meat production.

The soybean is more than just a humble legume—it’s a major geopolitical player that feeds the international meat market, shapes trade wars, and transforms economies. In Episode 4, we tell the story of how the soybeans that feed pigs around the world have shaped the geopolitical behavior of what some call “the Meat Triangle”: the United States, Brazil, and China.

You’ve probably heard of money laundering. But while some choose to launder dirty cash, others launder cows. Episode 3 tells the story of one Brazilian company’s entanglement with the smuggling and selling of illegal cattle throughout the Amazon—and explores how big meat companies around the world use their power to undermine climate goals.