Street Signals

Last week's strong US CPI data left a Fed rate hike this week a foregone conclusion and likely inaugurates at least a modest hiking cycle. Inflation pressures are broad and not strictly energy-related, arguing for tighter policy globally. But does one key source of inflation, the AI build-out, need to break, to get price stability back on target? And what does that mean for an asset allocation strategy over the remainder of this year, into 2027? We discuss these questions, as well as how the US dollar might fare in an environment of constant flux, with Cayla Seder, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After years of the market anticipating strength in the Japanese yen, it might finally be here. Aided by official Japanese intervention in the currency and hints of collaboration with the United States, a correction of the JPY’s long-standing perceived undervaluation would make for one of the most meaningful currency trends of the last decade. But why now? Will the yen strength of recent weeks last? And how far can it go? This week, we ask Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets , all of those important questions, and much more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost no matter where you look, bond yields are making new multi-decade highs, with concerns growing that rising debt servicing costs in high debt economies risk a snow-balling effect that culminates in a fiscal crisis. As if that weren’t enough, risk markets, particularly equities and credit, still appear oblivious to the potential for upset. After a pivotal week of speeches and pronouncements from US policy officials, it seemed a good time to catch up with Peter Vincent, State Street Markets EMEA head of FX trading in London . See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

August often brings important messaging shifts from the Federal Reserve, with their Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for 28-29 August, the usual forum. And we often speak to Marvin Loh, Senior Macro Strategist on our Americas team , about it. Unique circumstances might limit headline risk this year, but that's not for a lack of discussion material. Questions over the tightness of the labor market, the direction of inflation and the communication strategy of the central bank will dominate interest and serve as the jumping off point for a wide-ranging discussion on this week's episode. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As markets enter vacation mode, this week's podcast presents our annual summer overview of the proprietary indicators available from State Street Markets and how they map to the most relevant themes driving assets and currencies. The sustainability of the tech trade in equities, the near-term path of inflation and the direction of travel for the Federal Reserve and how they feed into a rate, curve and FX view - it's all here. Host Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA , talks through how unique barometers of investor sentiment, real-time fundamental data and media tones can help navigate the coming weeks. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The passing of Alan Greenspan last month and confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman in May bookend two booms is US productivity: the mass networking of computing power during the Greenspan Fed of the 1990s and the explosion of inferential applications of computing power today. These cycles influence central bank policy in ways often underappreciated until their aftermath. Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets joins the podcast this week, to look back at the lessons learned from past capex cycles and productivity booms, to apply this experience to the current moment in AI and to assess the initial steps towards institutional reform taken in the early weeks of Kevin Warsh's term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The need for robust and enhanced defense spending in an increasingly fragmented world is a policy objective agreed upon across the political divide. Few are better positioned to comment on the obstacles and opportunities of the process than Sir Ben Wallace, a former Captain in the British Army, a member of Parliament for 20 years and Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom between 2019 and 2023 . In his post-government life as an investor, he offers a singular perspective on the gaps in manpower and equipment faced by most Western powers and how we can begin to address them. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With so many unanswered questions about the direction of US domestic politics and the role the United States now plays in the world, few can bring the experience and depth of knowledge of the political process as this weeks guest, Mick Mulvaney . Mick is a former elected member of the US House of Representatives for South Carolina, serving four terms before joining the first Trump administration in 2017 as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, ultimately serving as acting White House Chief of Staff until his departure in 2021. In a wide-ranging discussion, we cover the current policy dynamics shaping discourse in Washington, the geopolitical considerations driving the policies of the 2nd Trump Administration and the legacy left by Trump when his term finishes in 2027. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Few people are better positioned to comment on current trends in media and politics than Alastair Campbell . After a long career in journalism and politics, serving as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's Press Secretary and Downing Street Director of Communications and Strategy, Alastair now co-hosts The Rest Is Politics, the most popular politics podcast in the UK. This wide-ranging discussion covers the changing nature of the media, what it takes for a leader to drive policy, the state of populism and the challenges for the Labour Party in the current political moment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the podcast starts its fourth year, we take a look back this week: to its origins, how the content and message have changed over the years, what guests stood out as formative to building the audience and the lessons learned about macro and markets along the way. In a twist, the microphone gets turned around as well, with our host, Tim Graf , taking a turn as a guest. Ramu Thiagarajan, Head of Thought Leadership for State Street takes over this special birthday edition of Street Signals! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we explore the evolving US-China relationship and the drivers of the stellar equity market performance in Asia this year, joined by Dwyfor Evans, Head of Macro Strategy for Asia at State Street Markets . The recent summit meeting of US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked a thawing of relations but considerable questions remain around how the two countries will navigate geopolitical and trade tensions. These important discussions frame a regional market backdrop remarkable for its current strength, raising questions of sustainability of the concentrated returns year-to-date. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As impressive the recent bounce in stocks has been, it is a R ally I n N ame O nly. Large cap tech companies dominate returns, while almost everything else - whether at a country or a sector level - continues to struggle. With inflation spiking and interest rate markets starting to show signs of dislocation, it is worth asking if the concentration of returns carries with it the seeds of its own undoing. Marija Veitmane, Head of Equity Strategy at State Street Markets , joins us to discuss the sustainability of stock market strength and whether fixed income stress will have any lasting impact on returns. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To kick off State Street’s series of global research events, we are joined by research partner Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School . In this wide-ranging discussion of inflationary dynamics, we assess the last ten years of recurring price shocks and how much inflationary regimes and the price sensitivities of retailers and consumers have changed. The current impact of another energy price shock and lingering effects of last year’s tariffs briefly feature as a sneak preview of Alberto’s eagerly anticipated current thinking. For a fuller presentation of those themes, please contact your State Street representative to register for one of our upcoming events in Asia, the Americas and Europe. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wednesday’s hopeful news of a possible end to hostilities in Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz comes just as the macro impact of events is starting to be felt and seen in economic data. A resolution does not change the realities of high near-term inflation and the varying policy responses to it. Geopolitical disruptions are still going to resonate for some time. This week, we speak to Noel Dixon, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets , on all these topics, and to position in FX markets accordingly. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Short-term market conditions remain subject to the headlines. Long-term questions of US equity market performance and whether investors require a rethink of their asset allocation preferences are the same and as valid today as they were before the eruption of Middle East hostilities. This week, Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets , talks to us about a new piece on the US stock market and whether concentration and valuation risks are as acute today as they were earlier in the year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a decade full of seismic geopolitical events, the conflict in Iran had the potential to rank amongst the most impactful. Yet financial markets never priced it as more than a fleeting instance of volatility. And now, the most severe dislocations are almost fully closed with the onset of talks to deescalate tensions. Question marks remain over energy supplies and the macroeconomic impacts of higher equilibrium oil and gas prices. This week, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading for EMEA at State Street Markets , joins us to discuss the landscape for FX, rate and equity markets now that the dust has settled. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many of the consequences of the latest disruption to global energy supply have yet to surface. While oil has been the immediate focus, volatility across global interest rate curves is emerging as an equally consequential second-order effect. Markets are rapidly reassessing the scale and timing of inflation and growth shocks – and how central banks are likely to respond. Whether this period of upheaval deepens worries already evident in credit markets is a further concern. This week, Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street Markets, joins the podcast to share his outlook for rates, credit and the impacts on the global economy through the coming months. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so far kept this a slow-burn test of positioning and risk tolerance, rather than a volatility event with a specific breaking point. This week, we speak with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas for State Street Markets as to whether this equilibrium can hold. He notes the most relevant variables of investor positioning and activity and their current messages, if markets are correctly pricing the policy response and why the US dollar has reasserted its safe-haven status. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are as vast as they are unknowable, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week, we speak to Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management , about the evolving conflict in Iran and the market implications for a prolonged disruption in one of the world’s key energy chokepoints. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s events — particularly the sharp rotation in equities in 2026 and the reassessment of crowded AI‑linked trades and their fundamental drivers. Cayla Seder, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Markets , speaks to the shifting market perceptions around AI, the scale of hyperscaler investment, the growing role of debt financing in the tech sector and how technology's potential to transform the economic outlook is likely to play out. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.