Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

As the United States continues to isolate itself, the rest of the world is starting a process of realignment - with the exception of Australia, of course. More information is becoming available about how we are being turned into a giant US military base, without any public discussion. At the same time, several opinion polls are showing that even though the alliance with the US remains vital in the minds of a majority of Australians, the pattern is shifting decisively. For those under the age of 35 - the nation's future leaders - the trend is clear: increasing trust in China and decreasing confidence that the US would come to Australia's aid during a conflict. Is this shift reflected in government policy? Of course not, as we rush to further ingratiate ourselves with the flailing Trump administration. Meanwhile, China is also transforming but in an economic sense moving from a manufacturer to a creator and innovator - something APDR witnessed last week as a guest at the Asia Pacific Media Forum in Shenzhen. There could be some powerful lessons for Australia in how small, high technology, AI enabled systems can massively increase self reliance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S. is continuing to demonstrate its unreliability as a security partner on an almost daily basis - something our politicians and Defence officials refuse to acknowledge is happening. Latest pieces of idiocy include Donald Trump's decision to try to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America as a deliberate and childish insult to Canada. More disturbingly, a Pentagon report has been leaked saying the US plans to recognise Argentina's claim over the Falkland Islands if the UK doesn't increase Defence spending to 5% of GDP - an outrageous piece of blackmail. In Australia, the Saturday by-election for the WA seat of Secret Harbour has seen the election of a One Nation candidate with a massive 18% swing against Labor. Normally, State by-elections aren't hugely consequential for Federal governments - but this one might have national security implications. Just five days before the vote the Federal government announced a massive $12 billion investment (out of a total of $25 billion) in the nearby Henderson maritime precinct. Rather than impress voters, this huge infrastructure spend might have had the opposite effect. Also, Defence Minister Richard Marles has left for yet another visit to the US and UK spruiking complete nonsense about the strength of the relationship with Washington. He is unable to see what everyone else can - and that is the US is unravelling further almost every day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We have a lot of foreign policy material to cover, starting with the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump's idiotic war with Iran. Of all the Middle East countries that hate Iran, on the top of the list is the UAE. With a population of just 1.1 million people coupled with vast economic wealth, it seeks to interfere in the affairs of a number of other countries. We ask again - with all this wealth, why has Australia given about $100 million worth of AMRAAM missiles to them and why is a RAAF Wedgetail aircraft still deployed there? Probably more consequentially, a sudden rift is emerging between South Korea and the US, with President Trump now openly siding with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator and mass murderer. This is just an appalling development - South Korea is a vibrant democracy with a thriving, creative economy. North Korea is one big prison that has nothing to contribute to civilisation. Thankfully, Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles has said publicly that Australia sides with South Korea - and also Japan, which is part of the mix. This is one of the rare occasions when we seem to have realised that the actions of the US are contrary to Australia's safety and security. It's a long overdue development - and let's hope it continues. However, there is now a very real prospect of South Korea developing a nuclear weapon if it can no longer rely on the US. If that happens Japan will instantly follow. Both countries are well prepared and could field and deliver a nuclear warhead in months. If that happens, where will it leave Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some reflections on vital infrastructure prompted by a journey on a high speed train from Luang Prabang in Laos to Kunming in Southern China.The part of the railway in Laos took a mere 5 years to build through some of the most difficult terrain imaginable. Around 60% of the line runs through tunnels. How is it that Laos - one of the poorest countries in Asia - can build infrastructure but Australia struggles. At least we will now have a Parliamentary inquiry into national resilience. We have a look at the strange episode where Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said that the deployment of USN Virginia class submarines to HMAS Stirling would end in 2032. Since then the government has walked that back - but what was it all about? Did Australia just try to blackmail the US? Finally some thoughts on US military technology, which looks like it is veering in some very strange directions. However, our sycophants in Canberra refuse to acknowledge that something alarming is unfolding. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We start where we left off with some words about conventionally powered submarines. Here we have been told that only nuclear powered submarines can survive in a modern war - yet Canada, Germany and Norway are ordering a total of 24 advanced, stealthy non-nuclear submarines, which raises the question: are they suicidal idiots, or have Australians been misled? Clearly Australians have been misled. Then we unpack a few myths about submarines - they are a powerful deterrent but they do not deserve some sort of magical reputation. In the Australian context they have a very patchy record - we had none at all between 1914 and 1967 and somehow managed to survive. Except for 5 days in April 1914 Australian submarines have never fired a torpedo in anger. They have seen far less actual combat than almost every other part of the ADF, yet they have managed to fool politicians by a bit of showmanship. Finally some words on industry policy and how the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) is starting to show some encouraging results. Let's continue to develop those skills and look at producing an air defence missile rather than continuing to rely on the U.S. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The mess in the Middle East continues with the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, with unpredictable consequences. Australia is an indirect participant through the continuing deployment of a RAAF Wedgetail Early Warning and Control aircraft to the UAE. We are told this is being used for defensive missions - but the only problem with that as we have no control over what the countries receiving it - including presumably Israel - do with the information. Closer to home, a Chinese submarine launched ICBM that came down in the South Pacific has caused a stir, and indeed it is an unwelcome development. However, it was a routine test and when you fire these things they have to come down somewhere. The new Chinese missile - the JL-3 - has a range in excess of 10,000km, meaning all of Australia is in range of it. Should we panic? Not yet, but we need to be aware of it and it highlights our lack of preparedness for missile defence, for which we can squarely blame the 2023 Defence Strategic Review. Finally, some words about Canada's decision to acquire 12 convention diesel electric submarines, which comes with massive economic benefits. Total German investment over the life of the program will be well over $100 billion. Compare this with the lunacy of Australia's approach to AUKUS Pillar One where we are giving away billions rather than receiving them. Why are we doing this? Because RAN submariners have bluffed our politicians and we will explain how. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US has celebrated Independence Day with President Trump giving a hugely bombastic and historically inaccurate speech saying that he leads the greatest country ever and the American military will kick sand in the face of anyone it wants. What an ally. Then we look at an important speech given by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy on 2 July. It was meant to be about Defence reform but he included a reference to Prime Minister Robert Menzies being a Nazi appeaser. This received a predictable reaction and it's unclear what the Minister hopes to gain by trying to turn Defence into a party political contest. At least he appears sincere about wanting to improve Defence - but for that to work the attitudes of people in the system have to change, along with some structural reform. He says that Defence has cumulatively wasted $29 billion - which is an extraordinary amount for which no one has been held to account. On AUKUS the government has wheeled out Senator Raff Ciccone to defend the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines saying they are necessary because Australia is surrounded by water. This ridiculous argument gets repeated over and over. Of course Australia is surrounded by water - any idiot knows that. No one is saying we don't need a Navy - what we question are the security benefits from this vastly expensive, risky undertaking and the government has no answers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Uncertainty continues in the Middle East with no one in the Trump administration having a clue about what they are doing; the government of Israel is out of control - and Iranian hardliners are in charge of their country. It is possible that Donald Trump is losing interest because the world economy hasn't yet collapsed. All the Australians who cheered on the US might wish to reflect on the consequences. Then we look at some surveys showing that trust in the US as an ally has plummeted. The same pattern is true in Australia, but our politicians seem completely immune. Next, a major study of increased defence spending that shows Australia way down the list with no meaningful increase despite all the rhetoric from the government. Finally, some worrying information about the F-35 program - as if Australia is not already too dependent on US hardware. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chaos continues in the Middle East with the status of peace talks between the US and Iran fluctuating wildly in response to continuing threats from President Donald Trump. The critical Strait of Hormuz seemingly remains both open and closed. The deal that the US appears to have agreed to allows Iran to retain its enriched Uranium, receive massive reparations payments and continue its ballistic missile program. Since none of the originally stated war aims have been met, will the Australian government call on the US to resume bombing since it was such a strong supporter of the war in the first place? There is some good news - Australia is donating $100 million to the fund that allows Ukraine to purchase more weapons. That conflict appears to be reaching a decisive stage with Ukraine now able to conduct drone strikes deep inside Russia even hitting a huge refinery on the outskirts of Moscow, probably the most heavily defended city on earth. One of the drones appears to be a larger version of one called the Aerosonde, which Australia had developed more than 25 years ago. Yes, we could have been a world leader in the use of small, swarming long range autonomous drones - but of course that was ignored by Defence who could not see the benefits of the technology. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A ceasefire deal has been announced in the Middle East, but it's too early to know if it will be permanent. On the AUKUS front, the UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned last week in the middle of a visit by his Australian counterpart, Richard Marles. Whoops! While his resignation was not directly over AUKUS, it is connected to it because Mr Healey does not believe the UK is spending nearly enough on defence capabilities - and those include nuclear powered submarines. The UK industrial base is in such poor shape that - once again - no Astute class SSNs can go to sea because they are awaiting maintenance. One of those is HMS Anson, which made a visit to Australia in February that was nothing more than a publicity stunt. Anson started experiencing problems - possibly with reactor piping issues - and is now out of service for an unknown period of time. You won't hear about that from the Australian government. The Royal Navy surface fleet is not in much better shape. UK submarine construction happens at Barrow in Cumbria. Many Australian journalists have expressed an interest in visiting the yard, but all have been rejected for completely bogus security reasons. The real reason is because the town of Barrow is without any redeeming features, meaning the recruitment of an additional 10,000 workers to build SSN AUKUS looks like a pipe dream - and the main construction hall at the yard was probably badly damaged by a fire in 2024. Finally, Ukraine is scoring noticeable battlefield success against Russia. The Australian government needs to get off its backside and sign a security treaty with Kyiv - a process that has been stalled for at least a year due to the indifference of our politicians. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There has been more news about AUKUS Pillar One and the developing story that Australia will no longer receive two second hand and one new Virginia class submarine from the US - as had been previously promised. The government is all over the shop, claiming that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz somehow justifies the acquisition of SSNs. No it doesn't - submarines are almost completely useless in the current scenario because you can't use them for clearing minefields or shooting down swarms of drones. Under the original deal the new submarine was to be a Block VII Virginia, delivered in 2038. Block VII is much more powerful than the second hand Block IV.s They will carry 40 Tomahawk surface attack cruise missiles, compared with 12 for a Block IV. They will also have features for protecting undersea cables and launching a variety of uncrewed systems. Put simply, a Block VII is a far more powerful, modern, deterrent than Block IV. Any official who says Block IVs are preferred because they are cheaper to maintain - even though they cannot say how much cheaper - should be sacked. A single Block VII carries as many Tomahawks as three and a half Block IVs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What was going to be a philosophical podcast largely about uncrewed systems has been completely upended by a major change to AUKUS Pillar One. The plan from the get go has been for the US to sell us two second hand Virginia class SSNs, followed by a brand new one. But overnight that's been changed - and on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced that the new one has been dropped and we will now be sold three second hand boats. The government has gone into spin overdrive, claiming that this is a massive triumph of planning - but it's not. If it is such a brilliant idea, why not have made this the aim from the first day? The government has repeatedly insisted that there is a plan and that plan is being adhered to, no matter what. Well, that plan has been dropped and now we have a new plan. In all probability the explanation is even simpler - the US has changed its mind and is no longer prepared to sell us new submarines because their own needs come first. In the medium term, under the previous plan Australia would also buy an additional 2 new Virginias if the British designed SSN AUKUS runs late - as it almost certainly will. What has happened to that plan? Does it still exist - or will Australia now only be permitted to buy more used SSNs, taking the total to five? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There's a great deal to unpack, starting with the Strait of Hormuz - and no one knows the exact state of negotiations between the US and Iran. Neither are particularly trustworthy and the situation seems to change hourly. And a quick reminder - this is a war initially cheered on by our government and even more enthusiastically supported by the opposition. On the local front, the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been gutted, jeopardising Australia's submarine deterrence capability. Defence Minister Richard Marles gave an embarrassing speech last week focussed on blaming the opposition for all of the problems, overlooking the fact that he has just had his 4th anniversary as the Minister responsible. Quick summary - this has been a massive Defence failure, which has also been exposed by the ANAO. Even worse, it's this same group of manifestly incompetent people who are in charge of AUKUS Pillar One. Finally a few words about Israel, which is continuing to massively lose international support by the treatment of peaceful protesters, including from Australia. The continuing destruction of southern Lebanon using Gaza-style tactics isn't helping. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There were two major events last week - Donald Trump's visit to China and the Federal budget - and from a national security perspective both were something of an anticlimax, which is probably not a bad thing. The Defence budget continues to track upwards and is a 6% increase over the previous year, which looks to be well ahead of inflation. The Trump China visit doesn't seem to have achieved anything in particular, contrary to the boasts of the US President. Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint and it will be interesting to see if the US goes ahead with a $14 billion arms sale. If that does not happen in the next couple of months that will be evidence of a shift in the dynamic. Then some words about satellite technology and how Iran is probably accessing commercial services from China. Finally some thoughts about lagging US SSN production numbers and why our government says everything is fine when publicly available information shows otherwise. Also, why did Australia rush to supply military aid to the UAE? Could there be a connection with retired ADF and AFP personnel making a lot of tax free money in that country? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To follow on from last week, we start with some thoughts about Mogami frigates and why none of them will ever be built in Australia. The simple fact is that WA companies do not have the necessary experience - and building some landing craft for the Army will not get them there. Secondly, in an outrageous oversight during the bidding process, no one was asked by Defence to provide a single line of costings on how the ships will be constructed in Australia. Then some history of the Crimean War and the inability of British commander Lord Raglan to understand that the world had changed and that the enemy was different from what he was used to. This is appropriate remembering that just a fortnight ago, the retiring head of INDOPACOM USN Admiral Sam Paparo told Congress that the industrial base was not producing SSNs fast enough. All sorts of fissures are occurring in the Middle East with formerly close ally Saudi Arabia denying the US access to military bases for the short lived Project Freedom. One wonders if at some point the US and Israel might also experience a rupture. In our region, North Asia is nervously waiting for the Trump-Xi summit next week. No one knows what might happen - and this is the world we now inhabit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The stalemate in the Middle East continues with neither the US or Iran backing down. US President Donald Trump continues to do the bidding of Russia by withdrawing some troops from Germany. On the local scene, Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson addressed the National Press Club and outlined a vision noticeably different from the government's - particularly regarding the US alliance. He stated the obvious that under Trump the US is no longer the reliable, predictable ally it once was. He remains enthusiastic about the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines but is less certain about their delivery schedule. He said that AUKUS Pillar One needs to be examined in detail and if it looks like the schedule is slipping, Australia should consider alternatives such as the purchase of B-21 long range bombers. We conclude with some wise words from former foreign minister Gareth Evans and DFAT head Peter Varghese. Both believe Australia could be doing a lot more to strengthen our security without being totally dependent on the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We start with the US and another attempted assassination of President Donald Trump. While there might not be a causal link, his obvious pleasure in inflicting pain and suffering on others - identical to that of the appropriately named Secretary of War Pete Hegseth - has helped increase a propensity for violence. The US seems to be moving further away from what we regard as Australian values. Then we have the abrupt sacking of Navy Secretary John Phelan - unqualified for the job in the first place - which is part of a continuing purge of the US military. In Australia we have the news that the government is buying an additional 270 Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles and also we are spending $2.3 billion on Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) and a second regiment of HIMAR launchers. PrSM is an excellent weapon - but we are doubling down on an overloaded and unreliable US supply chain at precisely the wrong time. A better choice would have been PrSM plus the Strikemaster system using Bushmasters with Naval Strike Missiles on them. Also some words about a report by the UK House of Lords clearly and factually pointing out that the "Special Relationship" with the US is over - and will never return. When will our government accept this new reality and stop fooling themselves and the Australian people? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week saw the release of both the National Defence Strategy and the associated Integrated Investment Plan. Rather than squabbling over the amount - there is a genuine, if small, increase in funding - people should be asking how much additional capability will this buy. The answer is, probably not enough, though more on drones is undoubtedly a good thing. Speaking at the National Press Club, Defence Minister Richard Marles proved again how out of touch he is by claiming that the US is still a dependable ally and that the international rules based order is still in place when clearly it is not. People can see this daily with their own eyes. He also repeated the falsehood that the government is spending record amounts on Defence. This is untrue. We are currently at 2.08% of GDP. In 1981-82 the fraction of GDP was 2.4% rising to 2.6% three years later. During the Vietnam War it was over 3%. Can people please start holding Ministers to account for this absolute, provable, factually incorrect nonsense. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Events in the Middle East continue to evolve in rapid and unexpected directions. Following the failure of peace talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran, the US is now hoping to open the Strait of Hormuz by blockading it. In the short term, the fuel crisis in Australia may get worse before it gets better - not that you would know that by looking at the amount of jet fuel being burnt up by our PM and Defence Minister. Speaking of which, a new National Defence Strategy will be released this week. It is likely to be dead on arrival because it has been written by people who refuse to accept that the world is changing and that the US is no longer a reliable ally. Finally - what does this government have against South Korea, which is the largest supplier of petroleum to us, along with Singapore? Why are they being ignored in the current flurry of high level diplomatic activity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Enough of Donald Trump already! We can't avoid him completely but there's a lot more to talk about, including the visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius - and what a breath of fresh air he is. He has called the US attacks on Iran a mistake and is worried about declining US support for Ukraine. He speaks honestly and clearly - unlike our own politicians. Next was a seminar organised by Malcolm Turnbull on sovereign self reliance - and the general conclusion was that AUKUS is on shaky ground. Next - our question for the week: what hasn't happened? Contract signature for SEA 3000 which the government insisted would be signed by the end of March. Finally, 2 very positive local industry stories - a visit to BAE Systems at Osborn to look at Hunter class frigates and discussions with Penske Automotive about support for military diesel engines, where we have achieved self-sufficiency. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.