Macro Minutes

In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technology, to help clients to capture these opportunities. Speakers: Sian Hurrell, Co-CEO, RBC Europe & Europe Head, Capital Markets Mark Tinworth, Head of Global Markets Sales, Europe Learn how we combine depth of insight and executional excellence, to deliver leading solutions for our clients as their partner of choice: Partner of Choice | RBC Capital Markets Discover the how our combination of Canadian heritage, global scale and European expertise enables us to support our clients across Europe: Europe | RBC Capital Markets

EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget promises revelations on fiscal policy that could reshape the outlook for yields. Tune in to hear RBC's macro experts discusses these topics and related market themes. Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy) , Head of US Rates Strategy Jason Daw (Desk Strategy) , Head of North America Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy) , Head of UK/European Rates & Economics * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy) , Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy) , FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy) , LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May. Participants: Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates Strategy Mary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canadian Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means for equity market positioning. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy Callie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset Hedge Fund Sales * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance, and more. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political landscape in the UK might look like in the months and years to come. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two months, and what we are paying attention to for opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and EMEA. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the BoC and Fed will be more patient and hold the line. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public markets exist. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Marc Sanchez (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Sector Strategy *Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Robert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. This sustained pressure would create headwinds for EM growth, inflation dynamics, and external balances. We assess the implications of each path for emerging market currencies. Participants: Luis Estrada(Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts