The China-Global South Podcast

China's growing commercial footprint across the Global South is creating new opportunities, but major knowledge gaps remain over how Chinese businesses build trust, negotiate, and form partnerships. Guanxi, institutional norms, and long-term relationships can matter as much as contracts and competitive pricing. At the same time, Chinese companies are still adapting unevenly to local cultures. Firms operating in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East increasingly recognize the value of local relationships and cultural knowledge, but many continue to prioritize speed and product specifications over local expectations. Sun Muyang, author of How Chinese Business Actually Works: 15 Themes on the Institutional, Historical, and Human Logic Beneath the Surface , joins Eric to discuss the logic of Chinese business, including guanxi and trust-building, competitive pricing, and Chinese companies' adaptation to Global South markets. Show Notes How Chinese Business Actually Works: 15 Themes on the Institutional, Historical, and Human Logic Beneath the Surface (English Edition) by Muyang SUN and Joyce XIE 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Guanxi and Trust in Chinese Business The Hidden Logic Behind Chinese Business Practices Reading Chinese Business Signals Understanding Chinese Pricing and Competitiveness Chinese Companies Adapting to Global South Markets Practical Advice for Doing Business With China Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Latin America is facing intensifying pressure from Washington to distance itself from China even as Beijing remains the region's leading trading partner. Governments are increasingly caught between U.S. strategic demands and the economic opportunities offered by China, making geopolitical balancing more difficult. The shift from a rules-based order toward one defined by power is reinforcing the case for "active non-alignment," allowing countries to work with both powers according to their interests. At the same time, Latin America faces a deeper economic challenge: moving beyond exports of raw materials such as copper and lithium toward greater value addition and industrial development. Ambassador Jorge Heine, honorary professor at the University of Chile's Institute of International Studies and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, joins Eric to examine Latin America's balancing act, including U.S. pressure on China ties, active non-alignment, and opportunities for deeper China-Latin America economic integration. Show Notes ECLAC - Ruptures and opportunities: proposals for Latin America and the Caribbean to thrive in the new geopolitical era 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode How U.S. pressure is reshaping China-Latin America relations The rise of active non-alignment as a strategy between Washington and Beijing Why China's role as Latin America's leading trading partner limits U.S. influence The challenge of moving beyond raw-material exports toward greater value-added production How China and Latin America could cooperate on copper, lithium, EVs, and green technology Why stronger China literacy is becoming essential for Latin American policymakers Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @jorgeheine Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's influence in Africa's media landscape increasingly operates through content-sharing agreements, journalist training, paid placements, and support for local broadcasters. These "below-the-line" strategies give Chinese narratives a pathway into African newsrooms that extends well beyond the reach of traditional state outlets such as CGTN and Xinhua. But the push for greater Chinese influence raises a deeper question about decolonization. While Beijing presents its media engagement as an alternative to Western dominance, African journalists can be exposed to models of reporting that do not necessarily fit local political and social realities. At the same time, the shift toward social media makes the actual impact of these efforts increasingly difficult to measure. Emeka Umejei, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Johannesburg, joins Eric and Cobus to discuss the arguments from his book China in African Media: Between Influence Operations and Decolonization , content-sharing agreements, journalist training, and the future of African media independence. Show Notes China in African Media: Between Influence Operations and Decolonization by Emeka Umejei 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's evolving media influence across Africa The rise of content-sharing agreements with African news outlets Journalist training, media exchanges, and the spread of Chinese reporting models The tension between China's "decolonization" narrative and African media independence How Chinese economic engagement strengthens its media influence The shift toward social media and the uncertain impact of foreign media campaigns on African audiences Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @ stadenesque I @emekaumejei Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's influence in Latin America is increasingly being built through smaller, less visible deals rather than the headline-grabbing infrastructure projects that defined its engagement in the 2010s. Surveillance technology, electric buses, power networks, critical minerals and subnational partnerships are creating a decentralized web of economic and political ties that can be harder to scrutinize or unwind. For Washington, the challenge is that pressure on governments to reduce Chinese ties often comes without credible alternatives. Latin American countries, meanwhile, are balancing U.S. security pressure against China's economic complementarity, while seeking to preserve strategic autonomy. Natalia Cote-Muñoz, the Managing Partner and CEO of Vantage Point Strategies, joins Eric to discuss China's evolving influence in Latin America, the risks of technological dependence, and how the U.S. and regional governments can respond. Show Notes Foreign Affairs - China's Quiet Quest to Dominate Latin America: Small Projects, Big Influence by Natalia Cote-Muñoz 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's shift from mega-projects to smaller, less visible investments in Latin America How subnational partnerships are becoming a key tool of Chinese influence The growing risks of technological and infrastructure dependence on China Why U.S. efforts to push back against China are often falling short Latin American countries' balancing act between China and the United States What China, the U.S., and Latin American governments should do differently to manage long-term geopolitical risks Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @CNASdc I @ncotemunoz Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's growing appeal in the Global South is increasingly being shaped by everyday commercial experiences, not just diplomacy or cultural exports. Chinese phones, EVs, apps, infrastructure, entertainment, and consumer brands are becoming part of daily life, creating a form of familiarity that may prove more durable than social-media-driven fascination with China. But this commercial reach carries a major contradiction: the same low-cost Chinese products that benefit consumers can intensify pressure on local manufacturers. Across Southeast Asia, Africa, and elsewhere, governments are responding with tariffs and anti-dumping measures as Chinese firms challenge domestic industries and potentially constrain industrial upgrading. Lizzi C. Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, and Zhuoning Li, a research intern at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, join Eric and Cobus to examine China's expanding commercial soft power, including the China-maxing trend, the role of diaspora communities, and the tension between consumer benefits and local industrial competition. Show Notes South China Morning Post: China's brands must outgrow diaspora bubble to hit soft power potential by Lizzi C. Lee and Zhuoning Li Foreign Affairs : How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People by Eric Olander and Lizzi Lee *]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-6a979ea1-3b80-83e9-944f-48c8f1c9376f-11" data-turn-id-container= "request-6a979ea1-3b80-83e9-944f-48c8f1c9376f-11" data-testid= "conversation-turn-26" data-turn="assistant"> 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Why China is becoming more popular with young people The rise of the "China-maxing" trend How Chinese brands are building soft power Why Chinese products resonate across the Global South The role of Chinese diaspora networks How affordability is changing consumer markets Why Chinese brands can benefit consumers while hurting local industries Can China's commercial influence outlast the current trend? Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @stadenesque I @wstv_lizzi I @AsiaPolicy Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Public opinion toward China is improving across much of the world, especially in emerging economies across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. At the same time, perceptions of the United States have weakened, particularly around its reliability and contribution to global peace and stability. Younger people are especially likely to view China positively, shaped increasingly by technology, consumer brands, social media, and infrastructure rather than Cold War-era narratives. But attitudes toward China and the U.S. are not necessarily zero-sum. Laura Silver, an associate director at the Pew Research Center, joins Eric to unpack the Pew Research Center's polling findings on how China is viewed around the world, why China's image is improving, what is driving support among younger people and in the Global South, and what the numbers reveal about shifting perceptions of the world's two largest powers. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode: 🌍 Why global views of China are improving 📊 What Pew's 37-country survey reveals about China 👥 Why younger people view China more favorably 🇺🇸 Declining confidence in the United States globally 📱 How Chinese technology and consumer brands shape perceptions ⚖️ Why U.S.-China public opinion is not zero-sum Show Notes: Pew Research Center: Views of China and Xi Are Improving Globally by Laura Silver, Jonathan Schulman, Laura Clancy and William Miner Afrobarometer : African insights 2026: Beyond borders: Citizen perspectives on a shifting global order Foreign Affairs: How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People by Eric Olander and Lizzi Lee Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @pewresearch I @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

After the pandemic, as Chinese state-backed lending to developing countries largely dried up, critics declared the Belt and Road Initiative effectively dead. They were wrong. This year, China's financial engagement with BRI countries reached another record, driven by larger deals, private companies, green energy, and a growing focus on industrial development. Chinese firms are increasingly investing in processing, manufacturing, batteries, and other higher-value activities rather than focusing primarily on infrastructure and resource extraction. According to the latest data from the Green Finance & Development Center , BRI engagement reached its highest level for any first six months since the initiative launched in 2013. Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the report and a professor at the University of Queensland, joins Eric to discuss how the BRI is evolving, including changes in how projects are financed, where capital is deployed, and which industries are attracting Chinese investment. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🌏 Record-breaking BRI engagement 💰 New financing models 🏗️ Return of mega-deals ⚡ Green energy expansion ⛏️ Shift from extraction to processing 🌍 Africa's BRI surge Show Notes: Green Development Finance Center: China's investment and construction engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 2026 H1 Financial Times: China pours funding into green energy deals as Iran war hits oil demand by Edward White Semafor: Chinese investments in Africa soar to $34 billion so far this year by Yinka Adegoke Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

The war in Iran is reshaping the strategic landscape of the Persian Gulf, putting new pressure on China's relations with Iran and the Gulf Arab states. Beijing's response is exposing the tension between its deep economic interests in the region and its reluctance to assume a larger role in regional security. Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter, and Aaron Glasserman, a distinguished fellow at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, join Eric to discuss their latest article in Foreign Affairs on why China will remain an influential economic actor in the region with only marginal geopolitical influence. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode ⚔️ How the Iran War Is Reshaping the Persian Gulf 🇨🇳 China's Strategic Interests in Iran and the Gulf 🛡️ Why Beijing Is Reluctant to Take on a Larger Security Role 🇮🇷 The Limits of China's Influence Over Tehran 🌍 How Gulf States Are Reassessing Their Relationship With China ⚖️ The Gap Between China's Economic Power and Security Responsibilities Show Notes: Foreign Affairs: The Gulf's China Problem by Mohammed Alsudairi, Andrea Ghiselli, and Aaron Glasserman Reuters: Can China restrain Iran? Gulf states test Beijing's influence by Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari The Diplomat: The Iran-US War a Win for China? Not So Fast. by Wang Jin Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China is expanding its space partnerships across the Middle East through satellites, navigation systems, technology transfer, and other forms of cooperation. Beijing tailors these partnerships to individual countries, while governments such as Egypt, Iran, and the UAE use Chinese cooperation to pursue their own technological and strategic interests. A new report in the Texas National Security Review, Choosing Orbits: China's Space Diplomacy in the Middle East , explores how regional agency, technological competition, and the broader U.S.-China rivalry are increasingly intersecting in space. Two of the article's authors, Lawrence Rubin, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Lincoln Hines, an associate professor at Georgia Tech, join Eric to discuss how space is the new frontier in China's soft power diplomacy. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🛰️ China's expanding space partnerships across the Middle East 🌍 Space diplomacy as a tool of Chinese influence 🇪🇬 Egypt's growing space and technology cooperation with China 🇦🇪 How the UAE balances China and the United States ⚔️ Dual-use satellites and the security implications of space technology 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.-China competition over the future of space Show Notes: Texas National Security Review: Choosing Orbits: China's Space Diplomacy in the Middle East by Lawrence Rubin, Lincoln Hines & Dayana Alagirova South China Morning Post: For China and the Middle East, a Space Silk Road is written in the stars by Yang Xiaotong The Washington Institute for Near East Policy: China's Push for Satellite Cooperation in the Middle East by Henry Tugendhat Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Forty years ago, Shenzhen was a small southern Chinese fishing village, just across the border from Hong Kong. Today, it's one of the world's most advanced megacities, with a population of nearly 20 million people and home to many of the tech industry's largest companies, including Huawei, Tencent, DJI, and Transsion, among countless others. That remarkable transformation within a single lifetime offers important lessons for Kenya, Vietnam, and other developing countries seeking to build their own technology hubs. Grace Yuehan Wang, a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics and a research fellow at Stellenbosch University in Cape Town, joins Eric to discuss her new book, which explores how Shenzhen was able to develop so quickly and what lessons its remarkable rise offers countries across the Global South seeking to build their own technology hubs. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🏙️ Shenzhen's rise as a global tech hub 🇨🇳 Why Shenzhen isn't China's Silicon Valley 🏛️ The role of local government 💡 Grassroots innovation and entrepreneurship 🌍 Lessons for the Global South 🚀 Can the Shenzhen model be replicated? Show Notes: Amazon: Dragon Innovation: Shenzhen: Lessons for the West and global south countries from China's leading innovation cluster by Grace Yuehan Wang ThinkChina : Shenzhen: The city that built China's tech empire by Chen Xiangming and Taylor Lynch Ogan Financial Times: China's Xi pursues AI diplomacy to woo the Global South by Joe Leahy and Eleanor Olcott Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China and India are entering a cautious period of diplomatic re-engagement after years of confrontation, but deep strategic mistrust, unresolved border disputes, and competing security interests continue to define the relationship. Economic cooperation is gradually resuming even as political tensions remain unresolved. At the same time, shifting global power dynamics are reshaping the balance between Asia's two largest powers. Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University, joins Eric from New Delhi to explain how changing Chinese perceptions of India, evolving trade priorities, BRICS diplomacy, and the broader U.S.-China rivalry are creating new opportunities for engagement while reinforcing the structural challenges that make a lasting rapprochement difficult. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🇨🇳 Why China's view of India is changing 🏔️ The slow thaw after the Galwan border crisis 🤝 Can trade recover despite political mistrust? 🌏 How U.S.-China rivalry is reshaping India-China ties 🌐 BRICS, the Quad, and Asia's evolving strategic landscape 🔮 What comes next for one of the world's most consequential relationships Show Notes: South China Morning Post: India and China revive Himalayan trade at high-altitude pass by Junaid Kathju The Diplomat: Why India Does Not Interest China by Akhilesh Pillalamarri East Asia Forum: China–India rapprochement is tactical, not strategic by Chietigj Bajpaee Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

As competition between the United States and China intensifies, Southeast Asia has emerged as one of the world's most important geopolitical battlegrounds. But despite growing tensions in the South China Sea and mounting pressure from Washington and Beijing, public opinion across much of the region remains more favorable toward China than many policymakers assume. A new report from the Asia Society Policy Institute reveals how economic ties, consumer brands, and everyday interactions are reshaping perceptions of China in Southeast Asia. Kevin Zhongzhe Li, one of the report's lead authors, joins Eric from Jakarta to explain why this trend is particularly important in the region's "swing" states. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Why China is gaining an edge over the U.S. in Southeast Asia How public opinion toward China has shifted over the past two decades The role of Chinese investment, EVs, and consumer brands in shaping perceptions Why South China Sea disputes affect countries differently The gap between elite and public views of China across the region Common U.S. and Chinese misconceptions about Southeast Asia Show Notes: Asia Society Policy Institute : Global Public Opinion on China: China's Standing in Southeast Asia's Swing States by Kevin Zhongshe Li South China Morning Post: ' Practical' young Africans leaning towards China over US and away from ideology by Jevans Nyabiage Pew Research Center: Views of China and Xi Are Improving Globally by Laura Silver, Jonathan Schulman, Laura Clancy and William Miner Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

There's growing optimism across Africa, Latin America, and Asia that abundant reserves of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel can fuel a new era of economic development. Determined to avoid the "resource curse" that enriched foreign companies while leaving local populations behind, governments are increasingly moving to ban exports of raw ores and instead promote domestic processing and refining. It's an appealing strategy, but far more difficult to implement than many realize. Wei Shen and Anabel Marín, senior research fellows at the Institute of Development Studies in London, argue that processing alone won't transform resource-rich economies. In a new paper, they explain why lasting prosperity depends on building the knowledge, institutions, and technological capabilities needed to move up the value chain. They join Eric to discuss what it will really take for developing countries to turn critical mineral wealth into sustainable development. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Why critical minerals alone won't create prosperity Can resource nationalism break the resource curse? Why processing isn't enough to move up the value chain The role of knowledge and state capacity in development What China got right in building its mineral industry How developing countries can capture more value from critical minerals Show Notes: WATCH: Critical minerals and development: Breaking the structural impasse with Wei Shen and Anabel Marín Institute of Development Studies: China's role in critical mineral mining and its impacts by Wei Shen Institute of Development Studies: Living in a material world: What critical minerals mean for development by Wei Shen and Anabel Marín Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

There's an emerging consensus that China is among the chief beneficiaries of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While Beijing has undoubtedly welcomed Washington becoming entangled in yet another war in West Asia, and continues to reap commercial gains from booming exports of electric vehicles and other technologies, the conflict is also exposing the limits of China's geopolitical influence. China is, first and foremost, a commercial power in the Persian Gulf. Beyond trade and investment, however, it has little diplomatic, political, or security leverage to shape the course of the conflict or influence the region's postwar order. Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and author of the China-MENA Newsletter , joins Eric to examine why China's economic footprint in the Gulf has not translated into strategic influence. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Is China really benefiting from the Iran war? Why Beijing won't replace the U.S. in the Gulf The limits of China's geopolitical influence China's commercial strategy in the Middle East Gulf views on balancing China and America What comes next for China-Gulf relations Show Notes: Sign up to The China-MENA Substack Newsletter : https://chinamenanewsletter.substack.com/ The Diplomat: After the Iran War, China's Middle East Strategy Will Prioritize the Gulf by Chenjie Song The Guardian: China is a clear winner from Trump's war in Middle East, report concludes by Amy Hawkins Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Two weeks ago, a PLA Navy submarine in the South China Sea test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that flew 7,300 kilometers before splashing down in the South Pacific. The launch drew sharp criticism from several Pacific Island countries, whose leaders argued that it violated the region's longstanding identity as a nuclear-free zone. To be clear, the test did not violate international law or established norms. The United States, France, and other nuclear powers have conducted similar missile tests in the Pacific for decades. Even so, Zhang Denghua, a senior research fellow at the Australian National University's Department of Pacific Affairs and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Pacific, argues that the launch could erode Beijing's hard-earned influence in the region. He joins Eric to discuss the strategic implications of the test, China's intensifying competition with traditional powers in the Pacific, and why Taiwan remains such a potent issue for Beijing in this part of the world. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's unprecedented Pacific missile test Why Pacific leaders condemned the launch Australia's new Pacific security partnerships China's growing rivalry with regional powers Papua New Guinea closes Taiwan office What's next at the Pacific Islands Forum Show Notes: The China-Global South Project : What To Know About China's Recent Missile Test in the South Pacific by Zhang Denghua The China-Global South Project: How Pacific Island Nations Are Capitalizing on Major Power Rivalry by Zhang Denghua The China-Global South Project: Japan is Eyeing China's Moves in the Pacific by Zhang Denghua Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's suspension of rare earth exports to Japan has now entered its seventh month, with shipments in June again falling to a fraction of their level a year earlier. The restrictions are one sign of a broader collapse in relations between the two countries since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office last fall. The relationship, long marked by tension, deteriorated sharply after Takaichi said that Chinese military action against Taiwan would "threaten Japan's survival." Since then, ties have continued to worsen. William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, joins Eric to explain the politics driving this increasingly dangerous confrontation and why its consequences will be felt across Asia. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Why China-Japan relations are unraveling China's rare earth pressure on Japan Taiwan's role in the growing dispute Japan's expanding regional security strategy The future of the U.S.-Japan alliance What's next for Northeast Asia? Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

The U.S. and China clashed at the United Nations this week, with each accusing the other of fueling instability in the Persian Gulf. Washington has long argued that Beijing plays a pivotal role in the conflict as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of dual-use technologies that could support Tehran's military. Many experts, however, dispute that assessment. They argue that China's ability to influence Iran is far more limited than commonly assumed and that there is little evidence Tehran would bow to Chinese pressure on matters of national security. Nor is there any indication that Beijing is willing to use whatever leverage it may have. Jesse Marks, CEO of the Asia-Middle East consultancy Rihla Research & Advisory and a leading scholar of Chinese diplomacy in the region, joins Eric to explain why Beijing is likely to remain a largely passive player, both as the war continues and in whatever political settlement eventually emerges. Show Notes: East Asia Forum: Iran's bid for Beijing's backing meets its limits by Jesse Marks Arab Gulf States Institute : China's Mediation Ceiling in the Iran War by Jesse Marks Gulf International Forum: Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can't Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf by Jesse Marks & Chenjie Song 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China and the U.S. clash at the UN Does Beijing have leverage over Iran? Why China's diplomacy has limits Pakistan's role in Iran mediation The future Gulf security order What China wants after the war Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

The U.S. war against Iran is having a profound impact far away from the battlefield, all the way on the other side of Asia in the Western Pacific. There's an emerging consensus among Washington's allies and foes alike that the U.S. will be incapable, unwilling, or a mix of both to fight a war against China in this part of the world. That's prompting a rapid reevaluation of security postures across the region, a shift on full display over the past week: Australia moving to bolster security ties in the South Pacific and Japan building what many see as a new security architecture for the post-American order. Derek Grossman, CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific and a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, joins Eric to discuss the week's key events in the South China Sea, South Pacific, and Japan's latest moves to build a new intelligence agency. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode South China Sea tribunal at 10 China's Pacific missile test Japan's security shift Philippines vs. Vietnam on China U.S. alliances under Trump Asia's changing security landscape Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: Japan Emerges as Asia's New Strategic Anchor by Derek Grossman Nikkei Asia: Vietnam's new balancing act in an unbalanced world by Derek Grossman International Crisis Group: Manila's Push for a New Rulebook in the South China Sea Peters Out by Derek Grossman Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

With open conflict between the U.S. and Iran now underway again, it's still too early to determine which side will ultimately prevail. But one point is gaining broad agreement among analysts: China is one of the few major powers that stands to benefit from the war. The conflict has accelerated several trends that work in Beijing's favor. It has driven greater use of the Chinese yuan in international trade, boosted exports of Chinese solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, and, perhaps most importantly, stretched U.S. military resources. Some analysts now argue that the strain has made the Pentagon's long-standing ambition of being able to fight two major wars simultaneously increasingly unrealistic. Ahmed Aboudou, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London and head of the China section at the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi, is among the scholars who believe the war has created significant strategic opportunities for Beijing. He joins Eric to explain why Chinese policymakers may be quietly pleased with how the conflict is unfolding. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's strategic gains from the Iran war The yuan's expanding international role Why Chinese exports are surging The strain on U.S. military capacity Is the Pentagon's two-war strategy over? How Beijing views the unfolding conflict Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs. Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself. AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Kenya's landmark China debt deal Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion Why AidData challenges the narrative Ethiopia's restructuring prospects China's evolving lending strategy The future of sovereign debt relief Show Notes: AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas