Everyday Economics

The Federal Reserve faces a major decision this week: raise interest rates or hold them steady as energy prices push inflation higher. Markets are pricing in a strong chance of a quarter-point rate hike, but PhD economist Orphe Divounguy argues the Fed should hold. His concern: the current inflation increase is being driven largely by a supply shock in energy, while the underlying economy is showing signs of weakness. Core inflation is around 2.4%, wage growth is easing, hiring remains near a decade low and recent economic growth has been heavily concentrated in AI investment. Divounguy argues that raising interest rates can cool demand — but it cannot produce more oil or directly fix an energy supply shock. Chris Krug and Orphe Divounguy also examine the growing divide inside the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, the labor market and whether Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole have created a credibility problem heading into Wednesday's decision. The key question: Is another rate hike necessary to fight inflation, or could it risk over-tightening an already fragile economy? Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

President Trump made promises to lower prices on everything from gas and groceries to electricity, mortgages, prescription drugs and childcare. But how much control does a president actually have over the prices Americans pay? Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy break down eight major price categories and examine what drives them — from energy costs and supply shocks to interest rates and federal policy. Gas, beef, groceries, electricity and childcare have all become more expensive, while 30-year mortgage rates and prescription drug prices have moved in the opposite direction. The discussion also looks at the role of tariffs, the Middle East conflict, Federal Reserve policy and Medicare drug-price negotiations. So which prices can a president meaningfully influence, and which are largely determined by forces outside the White House? Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

America is pouring money into artificial intelligence — but the productivity gains have yet to fully show up in the economy. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment held at 4.1%, but PhD economist Orphe Divounguy says the latest labor market data look more like a stabilization than a true rebound. Hiring remains weak, real wages are falling, long-term unemployment is rising, and the labor force is nearly a million workers smaller. At the same time, businesses are making massive investments in AI infrastructure. Equipment and intellectual property investment accounted for a significant share of recent economic growth, while construction spending has shifted heavily toward data centers. So where is the payoff? Chris Krug and Orphe Divounguy examine whether AI is actually increasing productivity, why businesses are still figuring out how to use the technology, and what could happen to workers as AI changes the skills employers need. They also compare today's transition to previous technological shifts, including the adoption of electricity. Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. economy is making a massive bet on artificial intelligence, pouring capital into data centers, chips and power infrastructure — much of it financed with debt. But the productivity payoff investors are expecting has yet to show up in the broader economic data. Economist Orphe Divounguy explains why AI productivity growth is becoming less of an upside surprise and more of a requirement for the economy to justify the enormous investment. With roughly $40 trillion in government debt and real interest rates remaining elevated, the stakes of the AI boom are much bigger than the technology sector alone. If AI fails to deliver stronger productivity and real income growth, the consequences could spread across the economy through higher borrowing costs, weaker growth, and potentially tougher choices on taxes or government spending. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and Dr. O break down who is ultimately carrying the risk of the AI investment boom — and why the economy may need the payoff sooner rather than later. Everyday Economics is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Home builders are cutting prices and offering incentives, but buyers are still struggling to get into the housing market. New home sales fell to a 607,000 annual pace in July, while housing inventory jumped to 9.6 months of supply — the highest level since January. Builders are responding with rate buy-downs, closing-cost assistance and price cuts averaging about 6%. PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why the housing market is increasingly split into winners and losers, with luxury homes holding up while the middle of the market — roughly $500,000 to $800,000 — remains stuck. Mortgage rates around 6.7% are making it difficult for buyers to enter the market, while builders in the South and Sun Belt face growing inventories after years of heavy construction. Meanwhile, markets in the Midwest and Northeast continue to face a shortage of housing. Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The economy may look strong on the surface, but a closer look at the numbers reveals a much narrower and weaker expansion. In his first Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to a 4.1% unemployment rate, strong business investment and rising corporate profits as signs of a resilient economy. But much of that growth is being driven by the massive AI buildout, while housing, construction and other parts of the economy continue to struggle. PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why the U.S. economy is increasingly operating at two speeds, why roughly 80% of second-quarter GDP growth came from equipment and intellectual property spending tied to the AI boom, and why the labor market may be weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests. With hiring near its lowest level since the aftermath of the Great Recession and the labor force shrinking, the Fed faces a difficult decision over whether to raise interest rates or wait for more data. Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mortgage rates could remain elevated as the bond market does the Federal Reserve’s work for it, keeping borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses. Economist Orphe Divounguy explains what rising Treasury yields mean for mortgage rates, credit cards and the housing market. Homebuyers waiting for lower rates may be paying a price for holding off. Divounguy notes that someone who bought a typical U.S. home when mortgage rates were around 6% in February would have saved roughly $146 a month compared with those who waited. In this episode, we break down why the Fed may leave rates unchanged, how inflation is influencing the bond market, and why trying to time mortgage rates could be a costly strategy. Everyday Economics is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

American households are feeling the squeeze as inflation continues to push up the cost of everyday life. New personal consumption expenditures data shows income is finally growing faster than spending, but consumers are still spending more than their inflation-adjusted incomes and drawing down savings to keep up. In this episode of Everyday Economics , Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphée break down what the latest economic data means for American families — from healthcare and groceries to housing, interest rates and big-ticket purchases. They also examine how government spending, energy costs, tariffs and higher interest rates are affecting consumers, why housing demand is weakening, and what could happen to the economy heading into the fall and next year. In this episode: • Inflation and the rising cost of living • Americans drawing down savings • Household income vs. spending • Housing demand and mortgage-sensitive spending • Government spending and interest rates • Energy and transportation costs • Tariffs and their potential economic impact • AI investment and economic growth • What consumers can do in a slowing economy Subscribe to The Center Square for more reporting and analysis on the economy, government spending and the issues affecting American taxpayers. #Inflation #Economy #Economics #CostOfLiving #Housing #GovernmentSpending #EverydayEconomics Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Job growth has slowed to roughly 34,000 jobs added per month — less than a fifth of the typical expansion-era pace of about 186,000 per month. Ph.D. economist Orphe Divounguy joins talks with Greg Bishop for Everyday Economics to break down what's driving the slowdown and what to watch for this week, including FOMC meeting minutes due Wednesday. Divounguy notes business investment growth is concentrated in AI-related sectors and data center construction, with hiring outside AI, healthcare, and parts of the Pacific Northwest largely stalled. The hiring rate is at its lowest level since around 2012, and low quit rates suggest workers currently employed are reluctant to switch jobs given limited opportunities elsewhere. Retail sales are up roughly 5% year-over-year, but Divounguy attributes most of that increase to price growth rather than higher real consumer spending, with inflation currently outpacing wage growth. On housing, Divounguy expects building permits to remain at depressed levels due to elevated mortgage rates, though housing starts could tick up as builders work through previously authorized but un-started units. Read more and follow Everyday Economics at thecentersquare.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Government borrowing is never free — and taxpayers ultimately pay the bill. The Center Square publisher Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy break down the three ways government debt can hit American households: higher taxes, higher interest rates and higher inflation. The discussion examines why massive government borrowing can put upward pressure on Treasury yields, mortgage rates, car loans and business borrowing — while rising interest costs consume an increasingly large share of federal spending. Federal spending reached roughly $5.52 trillion, compared with $4.15 trillion in revenue, while interest costs have become one of the largest components of the federal budget. What does America's debt mean for your household, mortgage, business and purchasing power? And can economic growth actually help the country grow its way out of the debt problem? Watch the full discussion to understand how government borrowing can ultimately affect the taxpayer. #GovernmentDebt #Inflation #Taxes #InterestRates #Taxpayers #Economy #FederalDebt #MortgageRates #Finance #economics Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. job market isn't collapsing — it's stuck . July payrolls fell by 23,000, while unemployment held at 4.1%. But deeper revisions to May and June erased more than 100,000 previously reported jobs, raising bigger questions about the strength of the labor market. On this episode of Everyday Economics , Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphée Divounguy break down what the latest jobs numbers really mean for workers, businesses and the U.S. economy. They discuss: Why the July jobs report may be less alarming than the headline suggests How revisions erased more than 100,000 jobs from previous months Why hiring and layoffs are both unusually low What "stall speed" means for the labor market Why low labor-force participation is keeping unemployment at 4.1% The risks of weak job-to-job movement and slower wage growth Whether AI and data-center investment can drive a productivity boom Why future productivity gains could create new jobs — and new labor shortages Everyday Economics is brought to you by The Center Square , helping you understand the economic forces shaping your everyday life. #Economy #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Jobs #Inflation #FederalReserve #AI #Economics Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Illinois Democratic State Rep. Carol Ammons is facing a bipartisan Illinois House investigation after being federally charged with wire fraud and making false statements, with the special committee examining whether there are grounds for discipline or removal while Ammons maintains her innocence. Ammons and her husband, Aaron Adam Ammons, have pleaded not guilty to the federal charges, with a trial scheduled for September. Prosecutors allege the case involves nonprofit contracts and questions surrounding campaign contributions, while the House committee emphasized that it is not determining guilt or innocence. Also, in this episode: The committee voted to contact the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of Illinois before proceeding further, seeking guidance on whether the state investigation could interfere with the ongoing federal case. The investigation draws comparisons to the Illinois House's previous special committee examining former Speaker Michael Madigan, who was later convicted on federal corruption charges and sentenced to 7½ years in prison. The States also examines energy prices and the conflict in Iran, a newly uncovered effort by state attorneys general to coordinate litigation against the Trump administration, and the growing debate over data center expansion and taxpayer costs. Plus, America's Talking: California: https://www.thecentersquare.com/california/article_28a745de-6c13-4df1-88df-c0c150193eb7.html Wisconsin: https://www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/article_9cede801-b522-4172-9d2e-b8d50301bfad.html Georgia: https://www.thecentersquare.com/georgia/article_1db1ef45-8b75-4144-928a-7d670680111a.html Arizona: https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/article_b2a0c25a-f6ef-465c-ad4c-de89ea70d2f3.html The States delivers taxpayer-focused reporting from around America, powered by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged—but that doesn't mean borrowing is getting any easier. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Greg Bishop sits down with PhD economist Orphe Divounguy to explain why mortgage rates remain elevated, what it means for first-time homebuyers, businesses looking to expand, and taxpayers navigating an increasingly expensive economy. Topics include: Why mortgage rates remain near 7% The end of the era of cheap money Housing affordability and first-time buyers Why wealthy buyers are still purchasing homes The impact of high borrowing costs on businesses Inflation, jobs, and the Federal Reserve's difficult balancing act What taxpayers should expect if interest rates stay elevated If you're wondering how Federal Reserve policy affects your finances, this breakdown explains the real-world economic consequences. Subscribe for more reporting on economics, government spending, taxes, inflation, and how public policy impacts taxpayers. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Inflation #Economy #Taxpayer #EverydayEconomics #Finance #FederalReserveNews Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting—but the real story wasn't the decision itself. It was the message. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Dr. Orphe Divounguy explains why markets reacted so strongly after the Fed abandoned forward guidance, why Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2007, and why some Federal Reserve officials are now calling for higher interest rates—not cuts. What does this mean for inflation, taxpayers, businesses, retirees, homebuyers, and anyone saving for retirement? In this video: Why markets sold off after the Fed meeting Inflation risks that refuse to disappear Why three Fed officials wanted rate hikes How government deficits affect interest rates AI investment and its impact on borrowing costs Why volatility hurts workers and retirees What to watch in the upcoming jobs report If inflation remains stubborn, borrowing costs could stay elevated, affecting mortgages, business investment, federal debt, and ultimately taxpayers. Subscribe for more analysis on the economy, government spending, inflation, and the policies affecting your financial future. #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #FederalReserveMeeting #Taxpayer #Economics #JobsReport #StockMarket #Finance Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inflation remains one of the biggest financial challenges facing American families, and the Federal Reserve may not be done fighting rising prices. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Greg Bishop and economist Orphe Divounguy, Ph.D. explain why a stronger labor market has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus away from unemployment and back toward inflation. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gas prices posted their biggest monthly decline since 2020, giving Americans temporary relief at the pump—but is it enough to keep inflation under control? In this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy explain why cheaper gasoline is helping consumers continue spending, why rent prices may be about to rise again, and how Middle East tensions could send energy prices higher. They also discuss what the latest CPI data really means, whether inflation is actually cooling, and why the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Topics Covered: Why gas prices fell June CPI inflation explained Will inflation rise again? Rent prices and the housing market How oil prices affect everyday costs Federal Reserve outlook Consumer spending trends Everyday Economics analysis 📈 Subscribe for weekly economic analysis that breaks down the headlines impacting your wallet. #Inflation #GasPrices #Economy #CPI #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #ConsumerSpending #OilPrices #InterestRates #EverydayEconomics #TheCenterSquare Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

America remains 4.7 million homes short, leaving millions of families struggling to find affordable housing while home prices remain elevated. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Center Square Publisher Chris Krug and economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy explain why the housing shortage continues despite slowing consumer spending and why home construction has stalled. They discuss: America's growing housing supply shortage Why single-family home construction is slowing How high interest rates impact builders The rising cost of construction materials The role zoning laws and permitting delays play How government regulations increase the cost of new homes Why affordable housing remains out of reach for millions What policymakers could do to lower housing costs Whether you're a homeowner, first-time buyer, taxpayer, investor, or simply wondering why housing remains so expensive, this conversation breaks down the economic forces shaping America's housing market. Subscribe for more analysis on the economy, government spending, inflation, housing, taxes, and the policies affecting taxpayers nationwide. #HousingMarket #HousingCrisis #RealEstate #Economy #Inflation #AffordableHousing #HomePrices #MortgageRates #Construction #taxpayermoney Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in 2026 after all—and that could have major consequences for taxpayers, homeowners, businesses and anyone carrying debt. In this episode of Everyday Economics, Center Square Publisher Chris Krug sits down with economist Dr. Orfe Divungi to explain why inflation remains stubborn, how tariffs, housing costs and record federal deficits continue to pressure the economy, and why the Federal Reserve may have little choice but to keep borrowing costs elevated. Topics include: Why inflation may stay above the Fed's 2% target How tariffs continue pushing prices higher Why housing costs are becoming an inflation problem again The impact of federal deficits on interest rates Mortgage rates, credit card debt and business loans What this means for taxpayers and the U.S. economy If federal borrowing continues to rise, taxpayers could face higher financing costs throughout the economy, making homes, vehicles and everyday purchases more expensive while increasing the long-term burden of servicing the national debt. Subscribe for daily reporting on government spending, fiscal policy, state government, taxes and the economic issues affecting Americans. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #Taxpayer #FederalDebt #GovernmentSpending #MortgageRates #Finance #Economics #FederalDeficit #InflationNews #BusinessNews #TheStates #CenterSquare Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The housing market has stabilized—but that doesn't mean it's healthy. In this episode of Everyday Economics , Chris Krug and economist Orphe Divounguy explain why home sales remain stuck near historic lows despite expectations for a stronger 2026 housing market. They discuss why Americans aren't moving, how weak job growth is slowing housing demand, the impact of mortgage rate lock-in, rising rents, aging demographics, housing shortages, and why a lack of inventory continues to keep the market frozen. Plus, what to expect from the latest Zillow housing market report. Topics Covered: Why the housing market remains frozen Home sales and inventory trends Mortgage rates and housing affordability Why Americans aren't moving Labor market's impact on real estate Housing supply shortage explained Rising rents and the rental market 2026 housing market outlook Subscribe to Everyday Economics for weekly insights on housing, inflation, jobs, interest rates, and the U.S. economy. #HousingMarket #RealEstate #MortgageRates #HomeSales #HousingInventory #Economy #InterestRates #EverydayEconomics #TheCenterSquare Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

June's unemployment rate fell to 4.2% , but does that really mean the U.S. economy is improving? In this episode of Everyday Economics , Chris Krug and economist Orphe Divounguy break down why the latest jobs report may be sending mixed signals. They discuss weak private-sector hiring, shrinking labor force participation, healthcare-driven job growth, downward payroll revisions, and what the new Federal Reserve chairman's communication strategy could mean for interest rates, inflation, and the economy. Topics Covered: Why unemployment fell despite weak hiring June jobs report explained Private-sector job growth stalls Labor force participation declines Healthcare vs. private-sector employment Federal Reserve policy changes Interest rates and the U.S. economy Economic outlook for 2026 Subscribe for weekly, data-driven analysis of the economy from Everyday Economics and The Center Square. #JobsReport #Economy #Unemployment #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicNews #EverydayEconomics #TheCenterSquare Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.