Moving Markets

Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches. (00:00) - Introduction (01:02) - Equity market performance in 2026 (02:47) - Sector winners and laggards year to date (04:10) - Key surprises from the latest earnings season (05:45) - The challenge of beating market expectations (06:05) - Concentration risk and the AI-driven rally (08:28) - Equity research process and sector ranking (10:44) - Overweight sectors: financials, health care, communications (12:31) - Financials: retail banks, payment networks, rating agencies (12:39) - Health care: pharma, biotech, MedTech (17:29) - Communications: internet platforms, telecom operators, AI infrastructure (20:49) - Year-end investing mistakes to avoid (23:17) - Closing remarks (23:43) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - Fed and BOJ: David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:43) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (17:55) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Energy markets update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:35) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (13:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:59) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (12:23) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:14) - AI - pacing the frontier?: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation (13:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:13) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end? In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027. (00:00) - Introduction (00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond (02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle (03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance (04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics (05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact (07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end (08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership (10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration (11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook (13:49) - What investors should avoid now (14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective (15:33) - Closing remarks (16:20) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:46) - ECB and US inflation data: David Kohl, Chief Economist (15:03) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:59) - US and European Government bond markets: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (09:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on the energy market and explains why global oil supply remains more resilient than many investors fear. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, about rising political fragmentation across Europe and what it means for equity investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:15) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:45) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (14:11) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (19:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets - not only what has driven their wild ride this year, but also what would be needed for them to recover more permanently. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:35) - Update on the digital assets market: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets reacted to the August US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which surprised to the upside, leading traders to believe that a hike is now more likely from the Fed on 16 September. Treasury yields moved higher, and the Dow and the S&P 500 closed the day lower. The Nasdaq 100 however closed above the flatline on Friday as tech stocks received a boost from OpenAI. This optimism spread to Asian markets this morning, with tech stocks there in buoyant mood, despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, assesses rising Treasury yields and what investors should watch out for in the coming days, and also offers his technical view on the yen and Japanese equities after a remarkable week. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (07:32) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:55) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue? In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earnings season, the outlook for AI and the Japanese yen, opportunities beyond technology, and the structural drivers underpinning their constructive view on Japanese equities. (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Key highlights of a strong earnings season (03:19) - Why does management guidance remain conservative (04:26) - A pickup in earnings revisions (05:25) - Has the dynamic between yen and Japanese equities changed? (07:14) - Why are we still positive on AI? (08:16) - Japan’s position in the AI ecosystem (09:00) - Opportunities beyond AI (10:00) - The big narrative shift (10:44) - Why we remain constructive on Japan

Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen, gold and EUR/USD. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold gained after days of weakness on a weaker USD, and Asian equities were somewhat supported by renewed optimism around AI-driven chip demand. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and whether oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:30) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:09) - Yields on the rise, fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:20) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all means for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (05:55) - AI competition from China: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (11:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:44) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:03) - Jackson Hole comments: David Kohl, Chief Economist (09:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (13:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the importance of duration, credit risk, and liquidity, and how macroeconomic factors and central bank policy shape the opportunity set. The conversation covers the dynamics of the primary and secondary bond markets, the role of market technicals, and why short-dated bond strategies may offer a compelling alternative to cash and money market funds. Roman also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve’s evolving communication style under Kevin Warsh, the practicalities of managing strategic cash, and why now may be a particularly attractive time to lock in yields. (00:00) - Introduction (01:28) - Is fixed income really boring? (04:39) - Understanding duration and credit risk (06:53) - Liquidity and the importance of the primary market (10:08) - Macroeconomic factors and central bank policy (12:40) - Market technicals and the impact of supply and demand (14:03) - Hyperscalers and the shape of new bond issuance (16:31) - Cash versus bonds—what investors should consider (20:34) - The Fed’s new communication style and implications for investors (23:08) - Is short duration the right approach now? (25:27) - What makes short-dated bond strategies attractive? (28:28) - Managing short-dated bonds: hold to maturity or switch? (29:48) - Risk and return trade-offs in short-dated strategies (32:21) - Investment horizon and the role of strategic cash (34:51) - Yield curve steepness and the roll-down effect (36:16) - Is now a good time to invest in bonds? (38:23) - Closing and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the USD debasement trade and what he is seeing in markets amid widespread claims surrounding the theme. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:06) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.