The Living Market Podcast

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "I am the house," Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, took issue with the comparison. A casino is the house because the math structurally favours it. The U.S. Treasury is something else entirely: issuer, debtor, refinancing agent, regulator and occasional buyer, all at once. And at the end of every one of those roles sits the same requirement: roughly $30 trillion of government debt has to live on somebody else's balance sheet. Philip explains why the Treasury needs the market far more than the market needs the Treasury, why the buyback program won't fix the real problem and why the bond market is betting that Bessent loses.

This week, Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management shares the key trends currently dominating the team’s market strategy conversations and what they mean for investors. These include consistent double-digit earnings growth, growing interest rate risk, Canada’s economic momentum, the opportunities within energy and the long-term case for AI. He also shares what the team is watching out for, including corporate profits, inflation, central bank policies and geopolitics, and their potential impacts on the markets.

The U.S. Treasury quietly doubled the size of its bond buyback operations in August. The market called it QE-lite, a nod to the Federal Reserve's crisis-era quantitative easing program of creating new money to buy bonds. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains why that label is wrong, what the Treasury is actually doing and why the relief lasted about a day before disappearing. He breaks down what it means for investors, why the two-to-seven-year range offers the best balance of income and risk right now, and why Canadian bond yields follow U.S. long-term rates whether we like it or not.

What if the Bank of Canada's next move is not a cut? Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, makes the case that the conversation around Canadian interest rates has shifted fundamentally. With the economy improving, the mortgage renewal shock easing and inflation showing signs of moving in the wrong direction, he explains why the balance of risk is now tilting toward higher rates and what that means for bonds, the Canadian dollar and investor portfolios.

For two years, everyone asked when the next rate cut was coming. Now the question has flipped: what if the next move is a hike? Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, went back to 1958 to study what actually happens to stocks after a first rate hike. The answer is not what most investors expect. Philip explains what history tells us about the move everyone is now bracing for and why the first hike and the last hike in a cycle are two very different stories.

The U.S. goods cycle is turning, and it has implications well beyond American factories. Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, explains what a remarkably strong monthly survey of U.S. factory purchasing managers tells us about where earnings growth is headed, what it means for Canadian equities and why history says the current cycle still has room to run.

When markets move sharply, the instinct is to look at the numbers. Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, argues the real question is whether the story behind those numbers has changed. He explains why valuation isn't a timing tool but a measure of how far things can move, and why the same market moment can look completely different, depending on where you're standing.

Astronomers predicted the April 2024 solar eclipse to the second. Not one of them can tell you what the S&P 500 will do next Tuesday. That gap, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, is the point. Right now, the CAPE ratio, a widely followed measure that compares the total value of the U.S. stock market against the size of the U.S. economy, is at an all-time high, and the headlines are getting louder. Philip explains why that number is less alarming than it sounds, why measures like this are reliable guides for long-term returns but almost useless when predicting short-term market movements, and what valuation is genuinely useful for.

This week, a different format. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, runs through five market insights in one episode: why earnings expectations are the highest they've been in years; what June's soft inflation statistic does and doesn't tell us; why roughly four in ten S&P 500 stocks were down 20% or more from their highs, even as the index hit records; why the calendar gets tougher from here; and why record profit margins raise the bar for everything that follows. One thread ties it all together: expectations are high everywhere you look, and the next two months will tell us whether reality can clear them.

Nobody's bracket survives the World Cup. And nobody's market thesis survived the first half of 2026 either, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. All seven Magnificent Seven stocks are trailing the S&P 500 at the halfway mark, while emerging markets and Canada have been the tournament's surprise winners. He explains what changed with the tariff shock of April 2025, why favourites are still good teams but not a plan on their own and why owning the whole field is the only strategy that keeps you in every round.

The headlines in the first half of 2026 were loud: a war in Iran, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation concerns and a weakening consumer. None of it was enough to derail markets, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He breaks down the earnings and economic backdrop that drove returns across U.S., Canadian and international equities, explains why Canada and the U.S. are now heading in opposite directions on interest rates, and makes the case that any volatility in the second half of 2026 may turn out to be an opportunity.

While investors were focused elsewhere, the Canadian dollar quietly fell almost 5% against the U.S. dollar over the past two months. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains the two forces driving that weakness: falling oil prices and a widening gap between Canadian and U.S. interest rates. With the Bank of Canada likely to shift its focus from inflation to a slowing economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise rates further, his view is that the pressure on the loonie may not be over.

Markets don't climb because everything is fine. They climb because everyone is convinced it isn't, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He explains why the wall of worry that carried markets through the first half of 2026 has largely come down, and why that shift raises a simple question: what will carry the markets from here? He breaks down what history says about mid-term elections, why earnings remain the real floor under this market, and why the set-up for the second half of the year is more constructive than many investors might expect.

Two years ago, incoming U.S. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh warned that central banks were getting too comfortable with higher inflation and called it very dangerous. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains why that warning looks prescient today. With most central banks worldwide running above their inflation targets, and bond yields climbing, the boom in labour markets and asset prices is coming with a cost. The question is how central banks respond, and whether markets are ready for that answer.

Is inflation bad for stocks? Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, went back through 76 years of market data to test that assumption, and the answer is more nuanced than most investors might expect. Stocks have been at least partial inflation hedges across most of the range we've actually lived through. The real risk isn't the inflation level itself; it's the policy response and whether that response tips the economy into a downturn.

The stock market is doing something unusual: rising steadily while consumers feel worse than they have at any point in recorded history, and most of the usual warning signs are flashing. Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, breaks down the artificial intelligence concentration story driving U.S. markets and why 10 companies now account for roughly 40% of the entire index. He explains why this rally deserves respect but not blind faith, and why a truly diversified portfolio today means owning more than one version of the same trade.

The bond market has been sending a message, and equity investors are starting to have to listen. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, breaks down what rising long-term government bond yields mean for a stock market that has climbed sharply in value this year. With inflation still elevated, the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. Additionally, AI-driven growth remains powerful, but higher rates are forcing investors to reassess risk, future cash flows and the true cost of capital.

Most investors haven't been paying attention to Korea. Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, makes the case that they should be. He explains how sweeping corporate governance reforms have unlocked remarkable stock market gains and why Korean export data has become one of the most reliable early signals for where U.S. manufacturing is headed. For investors focused on artificial intelligence, global manufacturing and shareholder reform, Korea sits at the intersection of all three.

You have a will. But when did you last review it, and does the person you've named as executor truly understand what they're taking on? In this special edition of The Living Market, host Aurèle Courcelles, IG’s Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning, is joined by Dan Britton, IG’s AVP, Tax and Estate Planning and Devon Miller, VP, Partnerships and Distribution at ClearEstate. Together, they explore why a will that made sense years ago may no longer reflect your current reality, what the executor role truly demands, and how estate disputes — even in close families — often begin not with money, but with surprises.

When almost everything else feels uncomfortable, earnings have been the one thing working. Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, unpacks one of the strongest earnings seasons in years: broad-based growth, strong cash flow and all 11 sectors participating for the first time in four years. But Ashish also shares a word of caution: this is a powerful market but not necessarily a safe one. When a market is priced for perfection, good results aren't always enough. The question now isn't whether earnings are good, it's whether they can stay good enough to justify what investors are paying.