Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

China's boom ran on the largest credit expansion ever recorded — roughly a third of global GDP in eight years. Rhodium Group's Logan Wright, who spent fourteen years tracking the financial plumbing from Beijing and Hong Kong, argues that engine has been shutting down since 2018 and the economy behind the headline numbers is growing at 1.5–2%, not 5%. China peaked at 18.5% of global GDP in 2021 and has been sliding ever since. The US has quietly outgrown it every year since. Wright and host Dmitri Alperovitch talk through why PPP flatters an economy suffering from deflation, why $52 trillion of RMB penned behind capital controls makes outflows inevitable, and why the widely-cited pivot from property to EVs, batteries and AI doesn't survive contact with the data. Rhodium tracks industrial land sales and local-government revenue bonds: strategic industries went from 2% to 6% of issuance while the share of loans priced at or below the prime rate climbed to 59%. The story of China's credit of the last decade: not reallocation to productive industries but forbearance. What emerges is a picture with no Lehman moment and no bank runs. Just deflation, a 9.5%-of-GDP deficit buying less each year, export competitiveness that comes from weak domestic demand rather than strength, and a decade that looks uncomfortably like Japan's. 00:00 Introduction 01:16 China's economic decline 03:25 How the US has outgrown China for five years 06:11 Why China's PPP lead doesn't matter 12:41 Beijing's fear of capital outflows 16:39 What could trigger a financial crisis 17:14 Credit is flowing to the least productive sectors 19:31 Throwing good money after bad 26:59 China's dependence on Europe 34:19 Can China boost domestic demand? 38:58 The Chinese economy in 2035

Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026. In this episode: How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all. A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base. How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two. 00:00 Introduction 00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game 07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe 09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game 13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia? 15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise? 17:10 How to Defend the Baltics 24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles 27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition? 29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma 35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk? 40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026 48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare? 49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority

Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy. 00:00 Introduction 01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz 03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait 05:19 Cruise Missile Threat 11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem 19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf 26:43 Kharg Island 31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf? 36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them. 00:00 Introduction 02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place 12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds 14:33 Alternative Tariff Options 22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs 31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs 38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best. 00:00 Introduction 01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting 08:43 The Rare Earths Truce 11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal 12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments 16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year 17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World 18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal 20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export

Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going. 00:00 Introduction 01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy 10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending 19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions 30:10 Economic Headwinds 32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats. 00:00 Introduction 00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones 09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types 15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense 26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems? 28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare 29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery? 31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems? 34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses 36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses 38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics 44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies. 00:00 Introduction 00:57 Israel-Iran War 11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats 13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight a Nuclear War? 18:04 Debating Counterforce vs. Countervalue Nuclear Targeting Strategies 24:32 Is Nuclear Extended Deterrence Believable to Allies? 40:02 Is Pakistan Building ICBMs to Target the United States? 42:44 Does America Need Mobile ICBM Launchers? How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-new-nuclear-age-narang-vaddi

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution. 00:00 Introduction 00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program 07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution? 09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow? 11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue 12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility? 13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War? 16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists 18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles 20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs 22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment? 24:45 Was The War Worth It? 32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran. 00:00 Introduction 01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran 07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility 08:16 Shocking Success 11:20 Danger of Euphoria 14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies? 15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz 18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions 20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change 23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions. 00:00 Introduction 01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea? 15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy? 18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use 22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea 27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia 29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia 35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship 40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender? 44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs 47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea 51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea 54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers 01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea 01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy? Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sanctions have been the most impactful, and the one thing that could potentially trigger a crash and give Ukraine leverage to negotiate an acceptable peace deal

Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program. They discuss: - Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration - What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects - What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory - Putin's real redlines - Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine - Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM - The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup - How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine. They discuss: - How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle - 3rd Generation FPV drones - Quadcopter bombers - Mass-market EW systems - Fiber optics C2 - EW recon units - Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare - Impact of Chinese export controls - Thermite 'Dracarys' drones - Mothership drones - Long-range deep strike drones - Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones - How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage! - How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia's hands - Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different - Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with their August 6th offensive into Russian Kursk oblast, the achievable objectives of this operation and the risks that it brings. They discussed the achievements to date, the potential for holding newly captured Russian territory and the challenges that the Ukrainian forces currently face there. Constantine also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, LibertyUkraine.org, is providing vital and life saving combat support engineering equipment like excavators and generators to Ukrainian troops.

After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform? Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine." They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems. Music: Zaporizhian March

Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the book that lays out in great detail how China is likely to go about its invasion of Taiwan. In addition, Dmitri and Garrett discuss: - Why they wrote this book - What’s a stake in the potential conflict with China over Taiwan - Dmitri’s battles against Chinese IP theft over the course of his career - Why Taiwan matters to the United States - Why America will not achieve chips independence from Taiwan for the foreseeable future - Why Taiwan never fully belonged to China - Timeline for potential invasion and why invasion is unlikely to take place in 2027 - Why we are in a Cold War II with China that is remarkably similar to Cold War I with the Soviet Union - Strategy for victory in Cold War II - How to deter an invasion of Taiwan If you found this podcast interesting, please consider ordering the book from your favorite book stores or online at https://WorldOnTheBrink.com and writing a review!

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives. They discussed China's role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that caused the Korean War and Brezhnev's attempts to prevent Nixon's downfall in Watergate. Sergey and Dmitri also discussed their upcoming books, which are both publishing in the next few weeks, on Cold War I history and the history and strategy of Cold War II with China, respectively. They talked about what lessons the first conflict may offer for the second, whether it is possible to revive the detente strategy of the 1970s, and how America can achieve victory. Dmitri Alperovitch's book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" publishes on April 30th (https://WorldOntheBrink.com). Sergey Radchenko's book "To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power" publishes on May 30th (https://www.amazon.com/Run-World-Kremlins-Global-Power/dp/1108477356/).

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation. They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was estimated to be at 50/50 and how the US planned to respond to that outcome. Bill and Dmitri also debated the proposal to limit the power of the President to launch a first nuclear strike and discussed the destabilizing implication of the recent news that Russia may be seeking to put a nuclear weapon into space. Please check out Dmitri's book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" which comes out on April 30th. https://worldonthebrink.com

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolution, the challenge presented by electronic warfare and its logistical needs, whether unmanned systems are truly offering a radically new capability or are cheap replications of existing systems like torpedoes and cruise missiles, whether hypersonic missiles are worth the cost and the high manpower requirements of unmanned platforms and cyber weapons. Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2