World Review with Ivo Daalder

Key Topics Nicholas Burns recounts being the new U.S. ambassador to NATO when the attacks happened and describes the urgent push to invoke Article V for the first time in NATO history. Meghan L. O’Sullivan explains how 9/11 helped push a generation of foreign policy professionals into government and public service, including her own move from Brookings to the State Department. Juliette Kayyem recalls being on maternity leave and on an Amtrak train to New York when the attacks unfolded. The group discusses how 9/11 changed the American national security mindset from treating terrorism as a niche issue to making it a central organizing concern. O’Sullivan breaks down the evolution of the phrases “you’re with us or against us” and “the war on terror,” arguing that both became more problematic over time than they were at the moment they were first used. Burns emphasizes that NATO allies were unified immediately after the attacks and that Canada was the first country to raise the idea of invoking Article V. The guests contrast the diplomatic and alliance-based response to 9/11 with the later turn toward preemption, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq. O’Sullivan explains why the Iraq invasion cannot be understood apart from the post-9/11 atmosphere, even if the Iraq-9/11 connection itself was not proven. Kayyem describes the creation of homeland security as a major structural shift, from fragmented local and federal systems to a more centralized architecture with FEMA, the FBI, state homeland security advisors, and fusion-style coordination. The panel argues that domestic terrorism, political violence, technology, and radicalization now pose different challenges than the international terrorism focus that dominated the years after 9/11. Burns warns that the State Department and broader foreign policy bureaucracy have been weakened, arguing that America needs experienced diplomats and allies more than ever. The conversation closes with a shared lesson: America is strongest when it relies on friends, coordinates across institutions, and resists making the military the sole organizing principle of foreign policy. Links Juliette Kayyem - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/juliette-kayyem Meghan L. O'Sullivan - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/meghan-osullivan Nicholas Burns - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/nicholas-burns Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The Venezuela oil deal is framed as a huge geopolitical gamble, with claims of 65 billion barrels and a U.S. stake in a private Venezuelan company. Nahal Toosi explains why the deal is surrounded by legal, constitutional, and practical doubts, including questions about infrastructure, financing, and corruption. Alex Ward argues the deal reflects a Trump-era foreign policy that treats oil and regime change as spoils of victory, not just strategic assets. Shashank Joshi notes that Europeans see echoes of earlier resource anxieties, from Greenland to the Falklands, and worry about a broader collapse of principle in U.S. policy. The panel raises the possibility that the Venezuela arrangement could create incentives to delay democratic transition and keep an anti-democratic regime in place. The military segment focuses on the strain caused by extended deployments in the Middle East, especially the impact on munitions stockpiles, carrier availability, and long-term maintenance. Joshi cites the depletion of Patriot interceptors and the ripple effects in Ukraine, where reduced interceptor capacity may be affecting defense against Russian missile attacks. Toosi warns that the U.S. is simultaneously damaging its diplomatic, development, trade, and military advantages, leaving Congress and Pentagon leadership slow to respond. On Russia, Alex Ward says Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip appears to be both a warning and a broader attempt to preserve a back-channel with Russian intelligence. Joshi and Toosi discuss Russian hybrid risk, including the concern that Moscow may test NATO without triggering a classic Article 5-style response. Links Nahal Toosi - https://www.politico.com/staff/nahal-toosi Alexander Ward - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/alexander-ward Shashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/ Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topicas Canada’s resistance to U.S. tariffs and what it means for Prime Minister Mark Carney Whether economic pressure can succeed against Iran where military action has not The weakening of U.S. leverage when allies are no longer willing to cooperate How Trump’s approach is changing the transatlantic relationship What fragmentation in Europe and the Gulf means for future global power Links Prashant Rao - https://www.semafor.com/author/prashant-rao Matina Stevis-Gridneff - https://www.nytimes.com/by/matina-stevis-gridneff Anton La Guardia - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/anton-la-guardia/ Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics Artificial intelligence as a world-changing technology The promise and risks of AI AI’s potential to improve science and medicine Power, agency, and democracy in the AI era The US-China race for AI dominance China’s centralized approach to AI development Europe’s role in AI governance and sovereignty Why infrastructure and data centers matter for AI The tension between innovation and regulation Safety concerns from AI lab leaders themselves How AI could affect jobs, markets, and national security The need for transparency, accountability, and public oversight How political backlash could shape future AI policy The possibility of global AI guardrails and coordination Links Sebastian Mallaby — https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby Evan Osnos — https://www.evanosnos.com/ Marietje Schaake — https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/people/marietje-schaake Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Show Notes In this episode, Ivo Daalder is joined by Steve Erlanger, Christopher Miller, and Carla Anne Robbins for a wide-ranging conversation about three tests of U.S. power: Iran, Ukraine, and Cuba. The discussion begins with Iran, where the panel explores whether Tehran is outlasting Washington in a long war of patience and why sanctions and military threats may not produce the outcome the U.S. wants.The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where listeners hear how Ukrainians are adapting to modern warfare, why air defense remains critical, and how shortages of Patriot interceptors are reshaping the battlefield. The panel also examines the uncertainty around U.S. support and the broader lessons Kyiv is teaching the West about decentralized warfare.Finally, the episode looks at Cuba, where pressure, collapse talk, and regime-change logic collide with the reality of blackouts, shortages, and no clear post-collapse plan. Across all three cases, the central question remains: what happens when the U.S. escalates before deciding what success actually looks like?

Iran and Oman appear to have reached a tentative agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, but is it a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or simply a pause in a much larger geopolitical conflict? At the same time, Europe is grappling with renewed migration pressures in Ceuta and record-breaking heat that underscores the growing political and economic consequences of climate change. Host Giles Whittell is joined by Adam Cancryn (CNN), Shona Murray (Euronews), and Kim Willsher ( The Observer ) to connect these stories and explore what they reveal about the shifting global landscape. The panel examines President Trump's approach to Iran, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential impact on global energy markets. They also discuss Europe's response to increasing migration, the political tensions within the European Union, and the ways climate-related disasters are becoming central to policy debates. Together, they explore how international crises increasingly shape domestic politics, influence elections, and test alliances across Europe and the United States. From energy security and border policy to climate resilience and transatlantic relations, this episode provides the context behind the headlines and explains why these interconnected challenges will continue to shape global affairs in the months ahead.

Key Topics The details and potential consequences of the US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement and its departure from previous non-proliferation standards The strategic importance of the Iran war, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and regional reactions to new US policies The Trump administration's approach to tariffs aimed at combating forced labor and their impact on international trade UK’s post-election foreign policy outlook under Prime Minister Burnham, focusing on relations with Europe, the US, and support for Ukraine NATO defense commitments, international defense spending, and how UK’s role in security continues to shape global stability The influence of the UK’s domestic political landscape on its foreign policy and international partnerships Links Hugh Tomlinson — https://x.com/hughtomlinson Felicia Schwartz — https://x.com/felschwartz?lang=en Robbie Gramer — https://x.com/robbiegramer Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

In this episode, we take a critical look at FIFA, global sports politics, and the way major international events can reveal deeper institutional problems. Key Topics Criticism of FIFA leadership and governance How scandals reveal an organization’s true priorities The political meaning of the World Cup and other major sporting events Large events can temporarily distract from deeper structural failures. Leadership is best judged under crisis, not during calm moments. Institutions often protect reputation before they protect integrity. Links Mehreen Khan – https://x.com/MehreenKhn?lang=en Edward Luce – https://x.com/EdwardGLuce Bobby Ghosh – https://bobbyghosh.substack.com/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

In this episode of World Review , we explore the shifting dynamics shaping global security, from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran brinkmanship to the political and military challenges facing Ukraine. The conversation also examines Gaza’s stalled recovery efforts and the role leadership style plays in both diplomacy and war. Key topics include: Escalation risks in the Middle East Internal debates over U.S. military strategy Ukraine’s drone warfare innovation and leadership disputes Gaza reconstruction obstacles How trust, coalition-building, and execution shape international outcomes The episode offers a sharp look at how geopolitics, technology, and political decision-making collide in real time.

Key Topics Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran Whether the Strait of Hormuz could become a toll-based choke point NATO unity, Trump’s unpredictability, and Europe’s response Greenland tensions and the future of transatlantic relations Russia’s fuel crisis, drone strikes, and domestic pressure on Putin The broader shift toward rearmament and a more fragmented world order Links Karin Axelsson - https://politiken.dk/person/7961_Karin_Axelsson Anna Sauerbrey - https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/anna-sauerbrey Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics How the American experiment of government based on consent and inalienable rights ignited global movements and reshaped societies, from Europe to Asia. The complex legacy of America’s post-1945 institutional order, the Marshall Plan, NATO, United Nations, and whether this framework still works or if it's fundamentally broken. The rise of competing models like China’s authoritarian capitalism and the implications for democracies worldwide. Why America’s internal struggles, polarization, and quest for national self-redefinition threaten its ability to lead and inspire future generations. The risks and opportunities of a world where the U.S. steps back, and other nations forge a new, possibly more interdependent, global order. Links Zanny Minton Beddoes - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/zanny-minton-beddoes/ James Harding - https://observer.co.uk/contributor/james-harding Sylvie Kauffmann - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/signataires/sylvie-kauffmann/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The evolving political landscape in the UK a decade after Brexit, including public sentiment and potential reintegration into the EU The current state of Iran's nuclear deal negotiations, sanctions, and regional power dynamics Ukraine's recent large-scale strikes on Crimea targeting Russian military infrastructure and the implications for the ongoing war Links Catherine Philp - https://www.thetimes.com/profile/catherine-philp Yaroslav Trofimov - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/yaroslav-trofimov Yannis Palaiologos - https://def-ix.delphiforum.gr/speaker/12656901759 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics Geopolitical implications of the World Cup and its representation of global powers. Economic analysis of hosting the World Cup and its impact on host countries. FIFA's political dynamics and relationships with global leaders. Cultural and national identity shifts in international football. Stories of players with diverse backgrounds representing different nations. Links Giles Whittell - https://x.com/GWhittell Mehreen Khan - https://x.com/MehreenKhn Gideon Rachman - https://x.com/gideonrachman Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The implications of SpaceX's IPO valued at trillions in the context of AI's environmental and geopolitical impact How the US's withdrawal from NATO commitments and reconsideration of missile deployments reflect shifting transatlantic relations The ongoing US-Iran negotiations and their impact on regional stability and global diplomacy The rise of AI and its regulatory challenges, including oversight, ethical concerns, and potential societal upheavals The influence of US policy on European defense, sovereignty, and the transatlantic alliance dynamics Links Stefanie Bolzen - https://x.com/StefanieBolzen Adam Cancryn - https://x.com/adamcancryn James Harding - https://www.tortoisemedia.com/contributor/james-harding?type=listen Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The evolving situation with Iran and Israel, including negotiations and proxy conflicts Ukraine's recent territorial gains and the shifting momentum in the war against Russia The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, highlighting US and global response deficiencies The impact of US political dynamics on foreign aid and international policy The significance of vaccine development and global health infrastructure gaps Links Carla Anne Robbins - https://www.cfr.org/experts/carla-anne-robbins Yasmeen Abutaleb - https://www.reuters.com/authors/yasmeen-abutaleb/ Bobby Ghosh - https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/APEY-AVaoBA/bobby-ghosh Christopher Miller - https://www.ft.com/christopher-miller Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics Iran's potential nuclear agreement and regional implications Europe's diplomatic paralysis and its impact on Ukraine and Russia The Vatican's moral challenge to AI and the political repercussions Europe's defense posture and NATO readiness amid escalating threats U. S. tech industry influence and regulatory debates on AI Links Shona Murray - https://events.euronews.com/euronews-on-air/speaker/1136912/shona-murray Michael Shear - https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-d-shear Susan Glasser - https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/susan-b-glasser Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The implications of the US indicting Cuba's former president Raul Castro and what regime change might look like The impact of President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping on Taiwan’s security and US strategic ambiguity The political crisis in Britain, the decline of the Labour Party, and the future of UK leadership How European countries view US and China strategies in the context of Taiwan and broader global influence The potential for a shifting European posture towards closer integration with the EU and re-evaluating Brexit Links Philip Stephens - philipstephens.net Karen DeYoung - washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung Anton LaGuardia - economist.com/people/anton-la-guardia Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The symbolism and outcomes of President Trump's meeting with President Xi in Beijing Russia's economic and military challenges amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine The strategic stalemate in the Persian Gulf and its global implications The evolving U.S.-China relationship and its impact on global geopolitics Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential for diplomatic resolutions The role of symbolism in international diplomacy The impact of U.S. domestic politics on foreign policy Europe's response to shifting global power dynamics Links Yannis Palaiologos - insidestory.gr Carla Robbins - cfr.org/experts/carla-anne-robbins Jamil Anderlini - politico.eu/staff/jamil-anderlini Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics The emergence of war crimes trials in Syria and their impact on societal reconciliation The break between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over oil production and regional influence The decline of US-European relations amid troop withdrawals, trade disputes, and strategic disagreements The instability in Lebanon and the implications for Israeli and Lebanese relations The evolving nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics, including Iran's regional posture and Israel's security The influence of U.S. policy decisions, including Syria’s oil pipelines and the Iran nuclear negotiations Links Deborah Amos - journalism.princeton.edu/people/deborah-amos-2018 Steven Erlanger - nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger Felicia Schwartz - politico.com/staff/felicia-schwartz Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

The Iran War stalemate and dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the mounting pressure on both sides to reach a deal Iran's hardliners consolidating power and the growing likelihood the regime pursues nuclear weapons as a deterrent King Charles III's address to a joint session of Congress and its surprising ability to unite a deeply divided chamber The diplomatic lesson of royalty and why pomp and circumstance may be more effective than elected leaders in dealing with Trump Germany's unprecedented defense spending surge and what it means for NATO, European autonomy, and the transatlantic relationship Trump's threats to withdraw US troops from Germany, Italy, and Spain, and whether they signal policy or political posturing The economic toll of the Iran War on European publics, with inflation rising and governments increasingly vulnerable to far-right challengers Europe's fundamental challenge of broad agreement on what needs to be done, paired with near-total failure to agree on how to do it The AFD surpassing Merz's CDU in German polls for the first time, signaling deepening public discontent The limits of strategic autonomy and why Germany's reliance on American nuclear guarantees and weapons systems keeps it tethered to NATO and Washington