The State of It

Will Labour raise taxes? The cost of government borrowing is going up and up. That means the chancellor, John Healey, may well need to cut spending or raise taxes next month - and tax rises are much more likely. Labour MPs are overwhelmingly happy for the first time in living memory, but is that because they haven't woken up to the grim economic reality? The Labour Party conference slogan this year is ' Hope Again' , but while the prime minister is projecting optimism, the chancellor is cutting a much more sombre figure as his fiscal headroom shrinks. Will Andy Burnham's desire to lead on economic policy survive next month's budget? How likely is an early election? The assumption has been that Burnham will either stick to the Labour manifesto or he'll call an early election. Would he consider breaking, or at least bending, the manifesto to pay for all the things he wants to do? The donations row explained Labour's plan to block donations to Reform UK from Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo is nakedly partisan. The row shines a light on the strange world of political donations and the surprisingly vague laws that govern them. How much of a difference would the £72m make to Reform's electoral prospects? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producer: Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

MPs have voted against the assisted dying bill. The legislation was defeated by a margin of 16 votes, with 286 MPs in favour and 270 against, after 314 MPs backed the plan last year. It's a huge moment in the House of Commons. Why did the support for it fall away? How much of a difference did it make that Andy Burnham was not a supporter? Does it mean the issue is off the table for the foreseeable future? Where do we go from here? Does it galvanise the prime minister's mission to reform social care and palliative care? Plus, Andy Burnham is turning left, trying to appeal to the voters that Keir Starmer lost to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Will it work? And are the odds of an early election narrowing? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times Producer: Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images Audio: Parliament TV This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ed Miliband , the foreign secretary, is announcing sanctions on Israel over West Bank settlements. Why is it such a priority for Andy Burnham 's government and what are the risks? It creates yet another diplomatic sticking point for the prime minister when he meets President Trump later this month. At Reform UK 's conference, a protester who disrupted Nigel Farage 's speech was whacked with a stick and had her hair pulled. The party's economic spokesman Robert Jenrick says she had it coming. An astute political calculation or will it put off wavering voters? Has Reform weathered the storm after last week's resignations in the wake of the Verbatim/Channel 4 undercover investigation that showed senior aides arranging off-the-books polling? The party denies all wrongdoing. Does the story seriously damage them in the eyes of voters? John Healey 's first speech as chancellor was a chance to show a radical new vision and also to show the markets he can be trusted not to do anything too radical. The problem is you can't do both. We look at some of the calculations going into next month's budget. Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Producer: Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Parliament TV Audio: Sky News This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reform UK’s 2026 conference has begun in Birmingham under a cloud after Channel 4 broadcast allegations of an attempt to circumvent the rules on foreign donations — prompting Nigel Farage to turn on two of his closest aides, Dan Jukes and James Orr. Farage’s relationship with Jukes has been described as “father-son” so it’s a huge step for Farage and for Reform. Find out how it all unfolded in the early hours. The extraordinary fallout has overshadowed Farage’s big migration announcement with Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally running mate and the man who hopes to be the next French prime minister. Nigel Farage says Reform UK has done nothing wrong and that the investigation was carried out by far left activists. How much does the story damage Brand Reform? Are voters more interested in his small boats policy or in the questions raised by the documentary? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham wants the first day back in the Commons to be all about hope. But how long can he and his chancellor John Healey keep up the feel-good vibes? After much talk of change, there's a whiff of continuity in the air. Find out what is making Labour MPs most nervous and angry - and why. The toughest calls on defence spending and the economy are deferred to 2027, creating a juggernaut for next year. The PM says that public control is a priority but a decision on Thames Water has been postponed. What is Labour's policy on North Sea oil and gas drilling? Scoop: the government will confirm gas drilling at Jackdaw, but it's unclear what they'll do about the more controversial Rosebank oil and gas field. What did we learn from Kemi Badenoch's reshuffle? Kemi Badenoch's ruthless shadow cabinet reshuffle has demonstrated her hold over her party. But will it help the Conservatives' electoral prospects? Reform UK Conference: what to expect Polling suggests Nigel Farage is most likely to be the UK's next prime minister, and at their conference this week Reform UK will attempt to show us all what it would be like. What would a Reform government deliver in its first 100 days? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Scoop: Ed Miliband is expected to announce two different kinds of sanctions over Israeli settlements in the West Bank. We have the details, but will the plan be enforceable? Get ready for politics on hyperspeed this autumn: a decision on North Sea oil and gas, an announcement about the prisoner early release scheme, two welfare reviews, conferences, a budget and a 10-year plan. But amidst the flurry of activity, is Andy Burnham putting off some tough decisions? Reform UK says British-born workers should get priority for social housing. We look at the shifting Overton window on citizenship as three parties on the right - The Conservative Party, Reform UK and Restore UK - jostle for votes. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Fraser Nelson, columnist, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images 00:00 - Parliament Returns: The Autumn Political Agenda 01:45 - Ed Miliband, Gaza Sanctions & West Bank Trade Bans 07:50 - Early Release Scheme & Police Backlash (PC Harper Case) 10:45 - The Mini-Budget, Welfare Reviews & 10-Year Plan 15:00 - Reform UK's Housing Policy & Citizenship Split 23:30 - Kemi Badenoch Meets Giorgia Meloni in Rome This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The prison early release scheme is Andy Burnham's first big test as prime minister. There are no good options. Can he make a successful argument that he's picked the least bad? No 10 wants the Autumn Budget to be all about devolution, but they also need to raise money - a lot of money. Fraser believes there are reasons to be cheerful about welfare reform. Can Labour MPs really get behind a plan that inevitably will come with painful political decisions? Reform UK has suspended Tim Montgomerie as a member. What's going on within the party? And Gabriel lifts the veil on Insight's reporting into George Cottrell and Christopher Harborne's donations to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Gabriel Pogrund, Insight editor, The Sunday Times Fraser Nelson, columnist, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nigel Farage has done the inevitable and defeated Count Binface in the Clacton by-election. To celebrate, Reform threw a gigantic Glastonbury-style festival on Clacton beach. Farage-fest 2026 featured disco, live music and even a Ferris wheel. But during his victory speech, Farage admitted for the first time that he may have made a mistake by failing to declare the £5m gift he received from Christopher Harborne. Now, just hours after his victory, the parliamentary standards watchdog has resumed its investigation into the Reform leader. So, after the Ferris wheel and the fanfare, what next for the embattled Farage? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Picture: Getty images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, Andy Burnham said he had reached “the very limits of what is possible”, appearing powerless to prevent the early release of PC Andrew Harper’s killers. But after a wave of public outrage, he has now promised to stop it. This is Burnham’s first major collision between style and substance – can his positive-vibes politics really trump the reality of a political nightmare? Then over to Clacton, where a tanned Nigel Farage has embedded himself in his constituency. What comes next for Reform’s leader after he does the inevitable and defeats Count Binface in the by-election? Can he get Reform back on track after a difficult few months? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Picture: PA media This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has Andy Burnham's vibes-based politics collided with the reality of governing as he wrestles with the prison early release crisis? Restore leader and right-wing insurgent Rupert Lowe has publicly reached out to Nigel Farage, urging him to unite the right. Can Farage and Lowe finally put the bad blood behind them, or is the divide simply too deep? And on the left, the Greens have endured a bruising few weeks, with leader Zack Polanski's social media habits creating unwelcome headlines. But has Westminster been too quick to write them off? With Polanski at the helm, anything is possible. Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham's first week as prime minister has been decisive, optimistic and proactive. Labour has overtaken Reform UK in the polls for the first time in more than a year. Now Burnham is taking on education and social care reform: knotty political questions with many landmines. We look at the pitfalls that lie ahead. Zack Polanski's Green Party is losing support. And as Reform and the Conservatives fight to be the main party of the right, how does the new Labour government change things for Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch? Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Gabriel Pogrund, Insight editor, The Sunday Times Executive producer: Molly Guinness Producer: Euan Dawtrey Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham's first week as Prime Minister has been all about creating good vibes. He's pledged to end rough sleeping, cut VAT on energy bills, cap bus fares at £2, and save Britain's pubs. The obvious question is: how is he going to pay for it all? Steve takes us inside Burnham's call with Donald Trump, where everything was surprisingly cordial and the pair ended up talking about their mums. But next week, the easy announcements give way to the hard choices. Burnham is expected to unveil major interventions on social care and unemployment. Can he deliver reform while also tackling the cost of living, boosting defence spending and keeping the public finances under control? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producer: Euan Dawtrey Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Grafton Pub Purge: inside the pub where Keir Starmer had drinks with allies as they were sacked one by one. It's fair to say that Andy Burnham 's new cabinet has caused an astonishing amount of bitterness in the Labour Party. The Chancellor Shock: John Healey 's surprise appointment as chancellor means he'll have to find £25bn, or the equivalent of 3p on income tax, to fund defence. Get ready for a Mega Budget : the new government is preparing announcements on bus fares and Thames Water, but it's still unclear how they will pay for spending pledges. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, George Clare Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Russel Herneman This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Who is Shabana Mahmood, the 'ruthless' politician set to enter Downing Street as Andy Burnham’s Chancellor? After a fierce cabinet debate effectively ended Ed Miliband's hopes for the Treasury, all eyes are on her. And what does her potential appointment means for the future of UK politics, from welfare reform to the economy? Meanwhile, Westminser has descended into a surreal waiting game as the incoming Prime Minister prepares to take power. No one knows if their job is safe, and desperate insiders have resorted to asking our very own Steven Swinford if he knows anything they don't. Will Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting or Yvette Cooper feature? And how exactly will Number 10 North work? Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Who will be in Andy Burnham's cabinet? It looks like Ed Miliband will not be chancellor after all. We have scoops for you about who's in line for the big jobs in the Westminster cabinet reshuffle. Burnham needs to make room for allies like Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell, so who will be sacked on Monday when Burnham takes over as prime minister? Westminster is like a hornet's nest of briefing and counter-briefing as Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and others wait to hear what next week will bring. David Lammy has organised a whip-round for Keir Starmer's rather odd leaving present. And what will Burnham do once he's in post? We look at his immediate priorities and the possibility of a mega fiscal event in the autumn. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images. 01:10 - Blocking Ed Miliband From Chancellor 02:30 - Why the City Doesn't Trust the "London Left" 03:50 - Will Miliband Accept a Demotion? 05:05 - The Brutal Briefing War Behind Closed Doors 06:40 - Defending the "Net Zero Zealot" 07:45 - Cabinet Jenga: Filling the Great Offices of State 09:25 - Angela Rayner & The "Day One" Loyalists 11:05 - The Starmer Purge: Who Is Getting Sacked? 12:45 - The Yvette Cooper Foreign Policy Question 15:05 - Secret Policy Clashes: Josh Simons vs. Miatta Fahnbulleh 17:15 - Angry Loyalists With "Nothing To Lose" 19:40 - Starmer’s Bizarre Leaving Present 21:30 - Flying to the World Cup Final 22:35 - Burnham's Radical Plan for the Cost of Living 25:00 - The Warning Over a "Mega Budget" & Wealth Taxes 26:15 - North vs. South: The Growing Regional Rebellion Picture: Getty Images Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A furious Nigel Farage has said he will ‘stick two fingers up to the establishment’ by resigning and then winning a by-election in Clacton. Kemi Badenoch has accused him of having a hissy fit and Andy Burnham has said it's a gimmick designed to distract from questions over undeclared gifts. Will the Conservatives and Labour field candidates in the Clacton by-election? Will a Reform UK victory in Clacton boost Nigel Farage's standing in the rest of the country? And can Nigel Farage be suspended after a parliamentary standards investigation even if he wins the by-election? Who is George Cottrell, aka Posh George? Listen to the series here podfollow.com/posh-george Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images Audio: Reuters Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nigel Farage could face an investigation by the parliamentary watchdog after a Sunday Times investigation and podcast series raised questions about gifts and benefits in kind that he has received from George Cottrell, a crypto-gambler and convicted fraudster, who's better known as Posh George. Gabriel and Steve discuss how Reform UK has reacted to the story and what could happen next. Both George Cottrell and Nigel Farage deny any wrongdoing. Listen to the series here: podfollow.com/posh-george Episode 3 is out on Thursday 9th July Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Gabriel Pogrund, Insight editor, The Sunday Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Image: Getty/Alamy This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham is keeping his cards close to his chest and no one seems to know who'll get what job. That means there's a huge amount of paranoia and jostling for position the Labour Party. Cabinet ministers and MPs are lavishing praise upon him, but they're worried about his plans - both on policy and personnel. There's a lot of ill-feeling that could bubble up to the surface surprisingly quickly. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images 00:00 - Burnham's Intense One-on-One MP Meetings 00:32 - Paranoia and Panic in the Cabinet 01:44 - Will Burnham Appeal to Southern Voters? 02:50 - Desperate Ministers Begging to Keep Their Jobs 03:40 - The Ghost of 2007: Burnham's "Woman Problem" 06:13 - Ed Miliband's Chancellor Dilemma 07:18 - How Departments Are Pandering to Burnham 08:29 - Is David Miliband Making a Comeback? 10:54 - The Real Reason Angela Rayner Has Been Weakened 13:10 - Burnham's Frustration with Westminster "Ambulance Chasers" 16:56 - A Long Goodbye: Starmer's Farewell Barbecues 17:30 - The £15 Billion Defence Plan Black Hole 18:20 - Government Paralysis and the Rochdale Case This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is considerable intrigue around Andy Burnham's possible cabinet, not least because the eldest Miliband brother is being linked to the position of Foreign Secretary. Are we about to see UK politic's Cain and Able story return for a second round? And most importantly, Is Andy Burnham ready? Burnham's debut speech caused headlines with his bold plans to reshape the British state. But there are difficult questions lurking behind the rhetoric, namely what does any of it actually mean? Plus, Reform UK gears up to choose their top candidates to challenge Burnham in his own backyard. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images Audio: Reuters Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk 00:00 The Return of David Miliband? 02:53 The Miliband Brothers Psychodrama 04:23 Labour's "Boys Club" Optics Problem 08:02 The Brutal Fight for Top Cabinet Jobs 11:20 How Burnham is Manipulating Westminster 13:56 Burnham vs Starmer: The Real Difference 16:27 The Hidden Cost of Devolution (Tax Rises?) 19:31 What is "Number 10 North" Really About? 22:31 Why the Tories Fear Ed Miliband as Chancellor 25:29 Nigel Farage's Secret Plot for the North 27:35 The £5 Million Farage Crypto Investigation This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer both want an orderly transition but one day in, it's looking anything but orderly. It's a transition beset with bad blood and uncertainty and also some serious technical hurdles. Is he building a plane mid-flight or is he more like Gromit, sitting on a speeding train, laying down the track in front of him? The biggest unanswered question facing Andy Burnham is who will be his chancellor. Three names are in contention: bookmakers' favourite Wes Streeting, rank outsider Shabana Mahmood, and Ed Miliband — the bête noire of the bond markets. Patrick reports from parliament's bars, where the champagne is flowing and Labour MPs have suddenly become shameless attention-seekers, hoping to seduce Andy Burnham's allies. Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson Executive producer: Molly Guinness Picture: Getty Images Audio: Reuters Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk 0:00 - Can Andy Burnham Build the Plane Mid-Flight? 1:15 - Drama on the Commons Terrace: Euphoria & Champagne 4:20 - Keir Starmer's "Revenge" Timetable 6:30 - The Next Chancellor: Miliband vs. Streeting vs. Mahmood 13:12 - Scrapping the Triple Lock & Upcoming Wealth Taxes 17:37 - Inside Number 10: Starmer's Farewell Speech 19:33 - The £10bn Defence Plan Rupturing Labour 21:55 - Civil Service Gridlock: Why Access Talks Are Delayed 25:20 - The Crypto Billionaire Bankrolling Nigel Farage & Reform UK 29:00 - Will There Be an Emergency Election? This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.