Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update

Daniel Mahoney , James Sproule and Johan Löf talk about the cautiously positive thinking behind the latest Global Macro Forecast , our flagship research report which is published three times per year. Download and read it here. Do you agree with the outlook analysis?

Our weekly podcast is back for the autumn. Since our last episode the UK has gained a new prime minister and new chancellor but some problems haven't changed much since July. In this week's opening episode, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at the current issues heating up global bond markets. They also turn their attention to commercial property where higher gilt yields have squeezed the premium commercial property typically enjoys over them. What could happen next to valuations and yields? 🎧 Listen in to find out.

As we get ready to put away the microphones until September, there's just time to look ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision on July 30, and dig into what's happening in the US economy - why does it seem to be defying economic gravity? Plus, what is happening with AI stocks and why? With Daniel Mahoney, Cameron Willard and Johan Löf . Subscribe where you're listening to get our first podcast of the new season, out on September 7.

As Andy Burnham is confirmed as the new UK prime minister, Sonia Rothwell and Daniel Mahoney pick out some of the areas of economic stress that await in the Downing St in-tray. As the Middle East ceasefire appears to have collapsed, how is it feeding into markets? And could AI be a blessing or challenge for the new PM as he pledges to fix the economy? All in under 15 minutes. Why not leave us a review wherever you're listening?

In this week's podcast, Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule gauge the economic impact of the latest escalation between Iran, the US and Israel. Plus, James talks about the OBR's view of what the UK economy could look like 50 years in the future. And is the UK becoming more or less unequal? Listen in to find out.

A new dawn is imminent in Westminster, so Sonia Rothwell and James Sproule discuss some of the ideas being floated by the man expected to become the UK's next prime minister, Andy Burnham. And the Bank of England’s influential decision-makers panel reported last week – what’s keeping the UK’s CFOs awake at night? And in our regular property segment, as 10-year gilt yields are raised, what’s the long-term impact on property returns? Please subscribe wherever you're listening.

On a special spotlight edition of the podcast this week, we're looking at how the spike in oil prices has affected central banks' plans for interest rates. Join Daniel Mahoney and Johan Löf as they look at which signals central banks are listening to as they plot the path of base rates. Why not share this episode on social media or rate us wherever you're listening?

On this week's Handelsbanken Insights podcast, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney react to the breaking news that Sir Keir Starmer is resigning as the UK's prime minister and as leader of the Labour Party. The big question for markets is who will be the likely new chancellor? Plus, James and Dan dig into what the latest Bank of England MPC decision and other data tell us about the path of interest rates. All in under 15 minutes. Why not leave us a review wherever you're listening, to help other people find out about us?

After several false dawns, has a peace deal finally been agreed in the Middle East? Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule set out how the economic picture could change if the deal endures. Plus, David Cameron's happiness index was meant to be a way of tracking how content we are with our lives. James has looked at it and finds something surprising. And although reports say the house planning process is slightly improved, James looks at whether that's enough to revive the UK's housing construction activity. All in under 15 minutes. 📊 If you want a regular update of economics news, click through to our economic research hub: https://handelsbanken.researchonline.se/macro

As the Fed's new Chair Kevin Warsh prepares for his first meeting in charge, he's facing a complicated economic and political environment. On this week's podcast, our Global Head of Forecasting Johan Löf joins Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule to explain why. And James shares how recent data on consumer credit and purchasing managers confidence is affecting his view on the outlook for the UK economy. All in under 15 minutes. We'd love to hear what you think, why not leave us a comment? 💡Browse our other macro economic insights and reports .

On this week’s podcast with Sonia Rothwell and Daniel Mahoney . As the Iran war enters its fourth month, we’ll look more closely at how the effects are showing up in economic data. Plus, the cost of borrowing in the UK has gone up more than the rest of the G7 in the past five years, we’ll look at why. And what’s having the bigger effect on UK financial markets? Domestic or international politics? We'd love to hear what you think, why not rate us and leave a comment? 💡Browse our other ⁠macro economic insights and reports⁠ .

The continuing political uncertainty in the UK is top of the agenda for markets. Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule look at what effect it's had on gilts. Plus, it's a busy week for economic data, with fresh figures due on inflation, employment and earnings, and retail sales. And as we release our fifth annual Property Investor Report, James and Dan look at how some of the results fit in with the existing market. All in under 15 minutes. Subscribe where you're listening, and why not leave us a review too? Read our 2026 Property Investor Report Browse our other macro economic insights and reports .

Our latest Global Macro Forecast includes a number of possible scenarios for the world's combined economies. Global Head of Forecasting Johan Löf looks at which is currently the most likely. Plus: political risk has risen following a bad set of results in the UK local elections for the Labour Party - what do markets think of them and have they changed the path of interest rates? Senior UK Economist Daniel Mahoney explains. Why not share this episode on social media and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts? Presenters: Daniel Mahoney, Johan Löf Producer: Sonia Rothwell 🔗 Read: April 2026 Global Macro Forecast 🔗 Read: UK political risk may exacerbate financial market movements arising from geopolitical risk

This week, Sonia Rothwell and James Sproule dive into the data likely to be on the minds of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee as it gathers to vote on interest rates. And James talks about a practical consideration that could affect whether Iran can keep pumping oil during the current blockade. Plus, how is the government's housebuilding target looking? James explains with the latest building starts figures. All in under 15 minutes. We're back in a fortnight, please subscribe and rate us wherever you're listening.

James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at the continuing Middle East conflict's impact on jet fuel and diesel supplies. Is the situation as bad as some commentators are saying? Plus, ahead of this week's inflation figures, February's GDP data showed that before the conflict, UK GDP was slightly healthier than thought. James explains why that might not be as positive as it looks. And as property investors tell us they see opportunities in data centres, Daniel shares how current economic challenges could affect the sector. Please leave us a review wherever you're listening.

In this week's podcast, as the US commits to starting a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney look at several potential economic scenarios the latest action could prompt. Plus, what is private credit and why is the energy price shock drawing more attention to it? And in property news, James looks at what's happening in the UK's prime property market. Subscribe wherever you're listening - and why not leave us a review too so that other people can find us? Presenters: James Sproule, Daniel Mahoney Producer: Sonia Rothwell

Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule take stock of the latest economics news and consider recent calls for more North Sea oil drilling to counteract the effects of the Iran war. Plus, what other tools are available to help government and central banks control those effects? Don't forget to subscribe and rate us wherever you're listening.

With developments from the Middle East still emerging at time of writing, our economics experts James Sproule , Johan Löf and Daniel Mahoney give their latest analysis on how markets and central banks are responding to events over there, including reaction to the Bank of England's unexpected unanimous decision to hold interest rates. And listen in to find out what happens when a story breaks during recording... All in a specially-extended edition. 🔔 Sign up to our free monthly Rate Wrap newsletter to keep up with developments in interest rates and the wider economy.

The Bank of England will announce its decision on UK interest rates this week, in the shadow of continuing conflict in the Middle East. Our UK Chief Economist James Sproule joins Sonia Rothwell to unpack the implications. And following news of flat month-on-month GDP figures for January, where does that leave the UK economy as it faces the effects of the Iran war? All in under 15 minutes. Don’t forget to rate us wherever you’re listening. Handelsbanken Research War in the Middle East – macro scenarios

Just over one week from the start of the Iranian conflict and although things are slightly clearer, it’s a fast-moving situation. ⁠Johan Löf ⁠ and ⁠ James Sproule join Sonia Rothwell to give their reaction to weekend developments in the conflict, such as a spike in the price of oil, and to explain how they will affect: 📊 Interest rates 📊 Inflation 📊 Growth Plus, James explains why upcoming UK GDP figures are still relevant despite the recent market volatility. Please rate us and wherever you're listening don't forget to subscribe!