Democracy Paradox

The irony of democratic backsliding is a lot of these things are pitched to people and understood by people as actually pro-democratic. Noam Lupu Support for democracy is rising across the Americas after more than a decade of decline, but what kind of democracy do citizens actually want? Noam Lupu , director of Vanderbilt University’s Center for Global Democracy and LAPOP Lab, joins Justin Kempf to discuss findings from the latest AmericasBarometer and Pulse of Democracy. They explore why better economic and security conditions may be strengthening democratic support, even as distrust of political institutions persists; how citizens can embrace democracy while supporting illiberal leaders; and what attitudes toward representation, inequality, generational change, and political polarization reveal about the future of democracy across the region. Noam Lupu is the Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University and Director of the Center for Global Democracy and LAPOP Lab. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Is Democracy Delivering? - 2:36 The Illiberal Bargain - 9:56 The Outliers: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay - 19:56 Whose Democracy Is It? - 29:31 Links Learn more about Noam Lupu . Learn more about the AmericasBarometer survey. Read the Pulse of Democracy 2026 report. Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

There was an assumption that influence could only run one direction... but influence could run the other direction as well. Alexander Cooley Authoritarian governments are exercising growing influence not only within their own borders but across the institutions, markets, and organizations that shape global life. Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis, authors of Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics , join Justin Kempf to examine how authoritarian states have learned to reshape the liberal international order for illiberal ends. They discuss cooperation among autocracies, the growing economic power behind authoritarian influence, pressure on corporations and universities, and what these changes mean for liberalism, democracy, and the future of global governance. Alexander Cooley is the Claire Tow Professor of Political Science and Vice Provost for Research and Academic Centers at Barnard College, Columbia University. Alexander Dukalskis associate professor in the School of Politics & International Relations at University College Dublin. They are the authors of the recent book Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics . The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Liberalism, Not Democracy - 3:18 The Autocratic Axis - 15:01 Profits Over Principles - 28:20 What Comes After Liberalism? - 38:47 Links Learn more about Alexander Cooley . Learn more about Alexander Dukalskis . Learn more about their book Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics (Oxford University Press, 2026) Learn more about the Kellogg Institute Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

We barely disagree with each other, but we can't stand one another's party. Suzanne Mettler Suzanne Mettler is the John L. Senior Professor of American Institutions at Cornell University. She is the coauthor of Four Threats with Robert Lieberman and Rural Versus Urban: The Growing Divide that Threatens Democracy coauthored with Trevor Brown. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 From a 2-Point Gap to a 20-Point Chasm - 3:10 The NAFTA Betrayal Democrats Never Escaped - 15:01 Why Are You Kowtowing to These Elites? - 23:31 Power Without Prosperity - 34:35 Links Read the book Rural Versus Urban: The Growing Divide That Threatens Democracy Learn more about Suzanne Mettler Learn more about the Kellogg Institute Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

I'm by nature optimistic, but am extremely worried because of the structural moment we live in. Rachel Beatty Riedl Political scientist Rachel Beatty Riedl joins host Justin Kempf to examine how extreme economic inequality and the growing power of transnational elites have contributed to democratic backsliding. Drawing on experiences from Africa and other third-wave democracies, Riedl explains how concentrated wealth can weaken states, distort political competition, and prevent citizens’ preferences from being represented equally in government. Rachel Beatty Riedl is a Professor in the Brooks School of Public Policy and in the Department of Government at Cornell University and the Peggy J. Koenig ’78 Director of the Cornell Center on Democracy. She is the coeditor of Global Challenges to Democracy: Comparative Perspectives on Backsliding, Autocracy, and Resilience with Valerie Bunce, Tom Pepinsky, and Ken Roberts and the author of many articles including “Neoliberalism and the Third Wave" in the Journal of Democracy . The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 The Third Wave's Broken Bargain - 4:16 Elites Without Borders - 14:50 The Reagan Test - 24:35 The Rocky Road Ahead - 34:26 Links Learn more about the Cornell Center on Democracy Read the book Global Challenges to Democracy: Comparative Perspectives on Backsliding, Autocracy, and Resilience Read her article “ Neoliberalism and the Third Wave " in the Journal of Democracy Learn more about Rachel Beatty Riedl. Learn more about the Kellogg Institute Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

You can only get to the point of restoring democratic institutions if you win the last election with such a huge majority that you really have the public with you as you make radical change. Kim Lane Scheppele Kim Lane Scheppele is the Laurance S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and International Affairs in the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the University Center for Human Values at Princeton University. Some of her articles include “Autocratic Legalism”, “The Rule of Law and the Frankenstate: Why Government Checklists Do Not Work”, “How Viktor Orbán Wins," and most recently “Can Péter Magyar Restore Hungary's Democracy?” The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Magyar's Playbook - 3:24 A Party Without a Party - 18:26 Breaking the Rules to Save Democracy - 30:48 Looking to the Future Instead of History - 44:29 Links Learn more about Kim Lane Scheppele Read her Journal of Democracy article “Can Péter Magyar Restore Hungary's Democracy?” Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

The question is not whether polarization is dangerous, but the conditions under which it becomes violent. Jeffrey Kopstein Jeffrey Kopstein joins the Democracy Paradox to discuss when polarization turns violent. Drawing on his Journal of Democracy essay “When Polarization Turns Violent” and his book with Stephen Hanson, The Assault on the State , Kopstein explains why affective polarization, struggles over belonging, and the weakening or politicization of state authority can create the conditions for organized political violence. The conversation ranges from Charlottesville to lynching in the American South, pogroms in Eastern Europe, communal violence in India, and the rise of patrimonial leaders who treat the state as personal property rather than an impersonal rule-of-law institution. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 From Disagreement to Hate - 2:55 Who Owns the Polity? - 13:51 When the State Steps Aside - 26:32 The Assault on the State - 36:10 Links: Learn more about Jeffrey Kopstein . Read his Journal of Democracy article "When Polarization Turns Violent.” Learn more about his co-authored book The Assault on the State . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

We think the next ten years are going to be anti-billionaire. Pepper Culpepper Pepper Culpepper joins the Democracy Paradox to discuss when populism can strengthen democracy. Drawing on his Journal of Democracy article “When Populism Can Be Good” and his book with Taeku Lee, Billionaire Backlash , Culpepper argues that corporate scandals can channel public anger toward billionaires and large corporations in ways that reinforce democratic accountability. The conversation explores good and bad populism, economic unfairness, AI, regulation, and whether democratic governments can still stand up to concentrated corporate power. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Good Populism - 3:05 Latent Opinion - 12:33 The Next Progressive Era - 20:42 Regulation vs. Abundance - 35:48 Links Learn more about Pepper Culpepper. Learn more about his Journal of Democracy article “ When Populism Can Be Good .” Learn more about his book Billionaire Backlash: The Age of Corporate Scandal and How It Could Save Democracy (Bloomsbury, 2026). Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

We think of World War II as this global democratizing event, but what it really did was strengthen left-wing authoritarianism. Dan Slater Dan Slater is the James Orin Murfin Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Center of Emerging Democracies at the University of Michigan. He is the coauthor (with Joseph Wong) of the book From Development to Democracy: The Transformations of Modern Asia. More recently, he authored the article "The Authoritarian Origins of the Third Wave" in the Journal of Democracy . The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Why Scholars Stopped Taking Ideology Seriously - 3:02 The Difference Between Authoritarian Left and Right - 5:31 Why the Third Wave Narrative Gets the History Wrong - 20:45 Can Democracy Survive Ideological Extremes - 33:43 Links Learn more about Dan Slater . Read his article in the Journal of Democracy, " The Authoritarian Origins of the Third Wave ." Learn more about the Center for Emerging Democracies . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

What happens when the violent state forged under autocracy survives into democracy? Guillermo Trejo In this episode of The Democracy Paradox , Kellogg faculty fellow Guillermo Trejo discusses his new book, Accountability Shock , coauthored with Lucía Tiscornia and Juan Albarracín. Trejo explains how authoritarian security forces can survive democratic transitions and fuel organized crime, and why truth commissions, prosecutions, and institutional reforms are essential tools for preventing violence and building more durable democracies. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 What Is the State? - 3:23 From Order to Crime - 9:12 The Accountability Shock - 19:10 Beyond Elections - 37:20 Links Learn more about Guillermo Trejo . Learn more about his book Accountability Shock: Why Transitional Justice Prevents Criminal Wars in New Democracies (Cambridge University Press, 2026) Learn more about the Notre Dame Violence and Transitional Justice Lab . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

The left pays a very steep price when they break with democratic norms and procedures. Kenneth Roberts Kenneth Roberts is the Richard J. Schwartz Professor of Government at Cornell University. He is the coauthor (with Santiago Anria) of Polarization and Democracy in Latin America: Legacies of the Left Turn. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 The Origins of the Left Turn - 3:21 Polarization and Its Discontents - 13:18 The Autocratic Temptation - 21:40 Populism and the Left's Democratic Reckoning - 37:24 Links Learn more about Kenneth Roberts Read his book Polarization and Democracy in Latin America: Legacies of the Left Turn Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the 2026 Global Democracy Conference at the University of Notre Dame. Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

If democracy wants to regain the upper hand, it has to not only do a better job than the other guys, but in fact, a good job. Sheri Berman This episode features a conversation with political scientist Sheri Berman on why today’s global "democratic recession" was actually predictable. Drawing from her deep historical research, Berman argues that every democratic wave eventually faces an "undertow," especially when the social and economic foundations of stability begin to fail. From the cautionary lessons of Weimar Germany to the modern rise of partisan "bubbles," this episode explores what we have forgotten about democratic stability and what it will take to secure its future. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 What We Forgot About Democracy - 3:39 The Social Foundations of Democracy - 13:55 Inequality, Insecurity, and Policy - 28:16 Universities, Cruise Control, and the Purpose of Democracy - 40:55 Links Learn more about Sheri Berman . Read her article " Democracy's Troubles Should Be No Surprise " in the Journal of Democracy . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the 2026 Global Democracy Conference at the University of Notre Dame. Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

Sharp power seeks to exploit the openness of free societies because their institutions are open. Christopher Walker Christopher Walker, a leading expert on authoritarian influence, returns to the origins of the concept of "sharp power," a term he helped develop to distinguish coercive and manipulative forms of influence from Joseph Nye’s idea of soft power. While soft power relies on attraction and persuasion, Walker explains that sharp power instead works by penetrating democratic institutions, restricting debate, and shaping narratives in ways that undermine openness. The conversation situates this concept within a broader shift in global politics, where expectations of democratic expansion after the Cold War have given way to a more contested and authoritarian-influenced world. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 The Origins of Sharp Power - 2:51 How Sharp Power Works - 11:29 Do Democracies Use Sharp Power? 21:15 Sharp Power in the Current Geopolitical Moment - 30:32 Links Learn more about Christopher Walker . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the 2026 Global Democracy Conference at the University of Notre Dame. Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

I don't think populism is necessarily a challenge to democracy. I think it's part and parcel of it. Hugo Drochon Hugo Drochon joins The Democracy Paradox to explore why elites are an unavoidable part of democracy – and why that may not be a bad thing. Drawing on classical elite theory, he explains how democratic systems depend on the constant circulation of competing elites and why outsider movements, including populism, can play a vital role in keeping democracy responsive. The conversation challenges conventional views by reframing democracy as an ongoing, dynamic struggle rather than a fixed set of institutions. Hugo Drochon is an Associate Professor in Political Theory at the University of Nottingham and the author of a new book titled Elites and Democracy . The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Nobody Wants to be an Elite - 3:52 Lions, Foxes, and the Circulation of Elites - 15:34 Is Populism a Threat to Democracy? - 31:37 The Role of Ordinary Citizens - 41:12 Links Learn more about Hugo Drochon . Learn more about his upcoming book Elites and Democracy (Princeton University Press) Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the 2026 Global Democracy Conference at the University of Notre Dame. Apes of the State created all Music Email comments or questions to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

We are badly mismeasuring whether and how much people care about democracy. Milan Svolik In this episode of the Democracy Paradox , host Justin Kempf speaks with political scientist Milan Svolik , the Elizabeth S. & A. Varick Stout Professor of Political Science at Yale University and author of The Politics of Authoritarian Rule . Their conversation explores one of the central puzzles in contemporary democracy: why citizens who say they strongly support democracy sometimes vote for politicians who undermine it. Drawing on Svolik’s experimental research, the discussion examines how traditional survey questions often overestimate democratic commitment and why understanding voters’ real trade-offs offers a more accurate picture. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Measuring What Voters Really Believe - 3:33 Militant Democracy and the Risks of Overcorrection - 16:51 The Left, the Right, and Who Defends Democracy - 37:18 The Voter as Democracy's Last Gatekeeper - 52:13 Links Learn more about Milan Svolik . Learn more about his book The Politics of Authoritarian Rule (Cambridge University Press) Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the 2026 Global Democracy Conference at the University of Notre Dame. Apes of the State created all Music Email questions or comments to jkempf@democracyparadox.com Support the show

The paradox of dictatorship is that dictatorships do well when they do not have a genuine dictator. Minxin Pei In this episode of Democracy Paradox , Justin Kempf speaks with China scholar Minxin Pei about his book The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism and his argument that China under Xi Jinping has shifted from authoritarianism back toward totalitarianism. They explore the missed opportunities for political reform in the 1980s, the party’s post-Tiananmen survival strategy, and how Xi consolidated power through purges, ideological revival, and expanded social control. The conversation also reflects on what China’s trajectory reveals about the strengths – and fragility – of democracy itself. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 China's Missed Opening - 4:22 The Return of Control - 21:03 The Making of a Strongman 38:16 Lessons for Democracy - 50:41 Links Learn more about Minxin Pei . Learn more about his new book The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the Global Democracy Conference Apes of the State created all Music Support the show

Traditional programmatic parties serve as a critical guardrail for democracy. Erica Frantz In this episode, Justin Kempf speaks with Erica Frantz about her book The Origins of Elected Strongmen and the rise of personalist leaders in democracies. Frantz explains how leader-dominated political parties – more than populist rhetoric alone – can erode democratic institutions from within, drawing on cases from El Salvador to France. The conversation explores why voters support such leaders and what this trend means for the future of democracy worldwide. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Personalism Defined - 2:50 Personalism's Appeal - 14:19 Threat to Democracy - 19:38 Pushing the Boundaries of the Theory - 33:13 Links Learn more about Erica Frantz . Learn more about her coauthored book The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Register for the Global Democracy Conference Apes of the State created all Music Support the show

By dismantling certain capacities today, you're making the democratic choices of tomorrow harder. Javier Pérez Sandoval In this episode, Javier Pérez Sandoval discusses his Journal of Democracy essay, coauthored with Andrés Mejía Acosta, on why populist leaders often “hollow out” the state. Moving beyond familiar debates about executive aggrandizement and democratic backsliding, Pérez Sandoval argues that democracy depends on the state’s capacity to deliver essential public goods – from health and education to security, justice, and credible elections. Drawing on examples from Mexico and Argentina, he explains how both left- and right-wing populists may weaken institutions through austerity, politicization, and institutional restructuring, often prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term democratic resilience. The conversation explores how state erosion can constrain future democratic choices, undermine public trust, and create a vicious cycle that leaves democracy structurally weakened from within. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Reducing State Capacity - 3:47 Core Functions of the State - 12:23 Is Reducing State Capacity Antidemocratic? 21:13 Does the Public Want to Hollow Out the State? 33:31 Links Learn more about Javier Pérez Sandoval . Read the Journal of Democracy essay “ Why Populists Hollow Out Their States .” Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Support the show

The group of people who have an interest in defending liberal democracy might be broader than many academics, and maybe even liberals, would have shown. Kate Baldwin This episode features Yale political scientist Kate Baldwin in a conversation about her book Faith in Democracy , which challenges the assumption that religion is inherently hostile to democratic governance. Drawing on research from sub-Saharan Africa, Baldwin explains how Christian churches have often emerged as defenders of liberal democracy – not because of ideological commitments, but because democratic institutions protect church autonomy and social service work from state overreach. The conversation explores when and why churches mobilize against democratic backsliding, how institutional incentives shape political behavior, and what this reveals about the broader coalition of actors invested in sustaining democracy. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 Why Churches Defend Democracy - 3:20 Role of Education - 14:09 Why Churches Choose Autocracy - 20:09 Leadership - 27:00 Links Learn more about Kate Baldwin . Learn more about her book Faith in Democracy: The Logic of Church Advocacy for Liberal Democratic Institutions in Africa . Check out " Democracy's Devout Defenders " in the Journal of Democracy . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Support the show

You can take a cognitive bias so far down the road that you can live in an objectively very clear dictatorship and sit there and say, 'I live in a democracy.' Natalie Wenzell Letsa In this episode of The Democracy Paradox , host Justin Kempf speaks with political scientist Natalie Wenzell Letsa about why some voters genuinely support ruling parties in electoral autocracies. Drawing on her book The Autocratic Voter and fieldwork in Cameroon, Letsa explains how partisan identities form under dictatorship and what these dynamics reveal about democracy, polarization, and political behavior more broadly. The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 What is an Electoral Autocracy - 3:20 Voters in an Autocracy - 12:55 Opposition in an Autocracy - 21:04 Parallels to Democracies - 30:31 Links Learn more about Natalie Wenzell Letsa . Learn more about her book The Autocratic Voter: Partisanship and Political Socialization Under Dictatorship . Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Support the show

The heart of ungoverning is going after expertise - eradicating expertise - and replacing it with the power of the great ruler. Russ Muirhead Russell Muirhead is the Robert Clements Professor of Democracy and Politics and the co-director of the Political Economy Project at Dartmouth University. He's also the co-author, with Nancy Rosenblum, of Ungoverning: The Attack on the Administrative State and the Politics of Chaos . Patrick McQuestion joins to help introduce the episode. Patrick is a PhD student in his fourth year at the University of Notre Dame studying political science and peace studies, and also the co-host of the Global Stage Podcast . The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Read the full transcript here . Key Highlights Introduction - 0:20 What is Ungoverning? 9:00 The Fourth Branch - 32:29 Other Examples of Ungoverning 36:28 Ungoverning and Democracy - 46:59 Links: Learn more about Russell Muirhead Learn more about his book Ungoverning: The Attack on the Administrative State and the Politics of Chaos Learn more about Patrick McQuestion Learn more about the Kellogg Institute . Apes of the State created all Music Support the show