Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! . Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously , Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets . Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Locali s ation Thesis Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble" The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding) Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts The Iran War and American Exceptionalism The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error The Rise of Kevin Warsh The Brexit Reality Check Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin Story Global Economic Resilience The AI Capex Boom Labour's Declining Income Share The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine Revisiting Forward Guidance AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star The Era of Global Fragmentation Optimism for the Next Generation You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website .

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist , as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV . He has also written for The New York Times , The New York Times Magazine , and The Wall Street Journal Europe , and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking Nationalising Money via the Civil War The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market Stablecoins as " Schmanks " (Unregulated Banks) Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years , he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys , including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief? Wage Growth Divergence The Working Hours Trap Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability The Enigma of Yen Weakness Work-from-Home and Birth Rates Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump" US vs. Japan: Labo u r Participation Trends

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: Defining AI as a Moving Target The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey Agentic AI and Unstructured Data RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate The "Alpha Factory" Workflow Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction The Critical Role of Human Context Advice for the AI-Native Job Market

William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ' for services to financial journalism ' . In this podcast, we disc uss: AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology Market Complacency in the Middle East Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit From "Democratic Recession" to Depression The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth Advice for the Next Generation

Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, an investment firm with over $1 billion in assets under management across multiple asset classes. He is the author of The Humble Investor (2025) and American Uprising (2011) . Prior to founding Verdad, he worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. In this podcast, we discuss: Investing as Meta-analysis The Evolution of Private Equity Stranded Software Assets The Private Credit Mirage The "Adjusted EBITDA" Trap Small-Cap Growth Dangers The AI Capex Cycle AI Productivity Mindset

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research ( renMac ). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them. Prior to RenMac , Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss: Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story" The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis The Real Income Squeeze AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance" The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance Productivity Boom or Demand Story? AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting The 2027 Fiscal Headwind Substack vs. Institutional Research

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss: Unlearning the QE Reflex Trading "Close to the Fire" The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags The "GMO" Bubble Methodolog y Credit as the Equity Canary The Four-Indicator Dollar Model Fading Geopolitical Shocks The Role of Human Judgment in AI

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro , where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey . In this podcast, we discuss: The Hormuz Supply Shock Stagflation as the New Base Case AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds A Hawkish Fed Outlook Canada's Productivity Pivot The USMCA Trade Cloud Private Market Maturation Normalising Credit Defaults AI's Private Market Future

Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co. , where he was a managing director in the company's fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. In this podcast, we discuss: Engineering Trust through "Entailment" Automating "The Bloomberg Way" ASKB : Reimagining the Terminal Workflow-Specific AI Expansion Actionable Alternative Data Empowering Non-Programmers Accelerating Data Onboarding Competition vs. Domain Knowledge A Cautious View on AGI

Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss: The Five Pillars of Global Macro The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing Australia's "Lucky Country" Crisis From Supply Shock to Demand Shock The Significance of "Critical Dates" Risk Management and Emotional Resilience US Equity Outperformance and Policy Makers

Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist , Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated into business strategy. Fordham was Wall Street's original Chief Global Political Analyst, spending 17 years at Citigroup. She created Eurasia Group's financial markets research business; was appointed to the United Nations' first HighLevel Panel on Women's Economic Empowerment; and has served as a Senior Advisor to the U.K. Prime Minister and 2-and 3-star Generals. Tina is a member of the International Advisory Boards of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, her alma mater, and Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics. She hosts "The Navigator ", produced in collaboration with the London Stock Exchange, and is a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg. Her forthcoming book, Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Business Leaders, will be published in July 2026 by Whitefox . In this podcast, we discuss: The Geopolitics Super Cycle The 1973-Scale Oil Shock Europe's "Barely Controlled Panic" The 2026 Greenland Maneuver Venezuela and the Iran "Jujitsu" Move China's "Silent" Advantage The Rise of Middle Powers Raising Your "PQ" (Political Quotient) You can follow Tina 's work on X , Linked In , a nd th e Fordham Global Foresight website . You can also contact Tina here ,

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor , the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact US Economic Stagnation and Population Seismic Shift AI as a Short-Term Inflationary Impulse The Fed's Potential Hawkish Pivot European and Japanese Central Bank Outlooks China's Resilience and the "Thucydides Trap" Market Rotations and the "Safe Asset" Shift US Midterms and Trade Tensions

Nader i s Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Fragmented GCC Stances Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold" The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate The Hormuz Transit Toll US Naval Blockade Tactics Downstream Infrastructure Damage Returning Shut-in Production Bypassing the Strait

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality

Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi -strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry. Pr ior to Cinctive , Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that , Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital , where he was a portfolio manager . In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha Silos vs. Collaborative Culture Protecting the Left Tail AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds Middle East: The New Financial Hub The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent Fed and Sector Outlook

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University, He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Boom-Bust" Myth Recessions as " Apophonies " Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age Policy Hubris The 1785 Structural Break Supply Shocks as Choke Points Misnaming the 2001 Recession The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection Impairment of Creative Destruction Fidelity to Long-Run Trends

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer . Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is f luent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica . H e combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining The Abdication of Western Capital Markets Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivi s ing New Capacity From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition