West of Centre

It’s crunch time to sway conservative voters ahead of Alberta’s referendum. But are federalist leaders doing enough? So far, separatists have reported raising nearly three times as much money as federalists and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has pushed the unity file to another Alberta MP. Host Kathleen Petty and former Conservative MP Damien Kurek look at what needs to happen in the final weeks and what’s at stake if federalist get-out-the vote efforts fall flat. Plus, journalists Alex Boyd and Matthew Scace on why separatists seem to be more organized when it comes to fundraising, online dialogue and big public events — and, how getting out the vote could matter more than any of that. And will a new ad campaign championed by Premier Danielle Smith do anything to sway voters ahead of the referendum? Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Damien Kurek, Alex Boyd and Matthew Scace Producers: Emily Senger, Emily Williams, Diane Yanko, Josh Pagé

Separatists think they’ll win a vote they’re poised to lose by a wide margin, according to an exclusive new poll. With a little more than five weeks to go before Alberta’s fall referendum, host Kathleen Petty explains how the heck we got here and where we’re headed next. David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, does a deep dive into Alberta public opinion. His numbers say if the referendum was held today, Albertans would vote decisively to remain. Motivations for the other side aren’t clearcut. Do they actually want to leave? How many just want to send Ottawa a message? Danielle Smith says she wants to have this vote and move on, but can we? University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young has also been tracking the rise of separatist sentiment and western alienation in Alberta since it flared up following the 2019 re-election of Justin Trudeau. She helps analyze the data, and questions whether polls might be systematically under-estimating separatist support. Background listening: Here’s a link to the episode we mentioned: “Is a trade war good for separatists?” — we interview one Alberta separatist leader, Keith Wilson, on why not everyone voting Option 2 is looking for full independence. https://link.mgln.ai/P987Bo Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: David Coletto, Lisa Young Producers: Emily Senger, Emily Williams, Diane Yanko, Josh Pagé

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are using very different tactics in the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade war. As Smith travels to Nashville, we ask whether her kill them with kindness approach is working. And Alberta’s senior representative in Washington, Nathan Cooper, weighs in on the delicate dance of diplomacy in Donald Trump’s America. To put it all in context, two conservative insiders join host Kathleen Petty. Evan Menzies worked with the United Conservative Party, and before that with Smith during the early days of the Wildrose Party. Cole Hogan helped get both Doug Ford and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney elected. Together, they break down the politics behind the premiers' actions and whether these strategies will make headway toward renewed trade talks or at least less punishing tariffs. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Nathan Cooper, Evan Menzies, Cole Hogan Producers: Emily Senger, Emily Williams, Diane Yanko, Josh Pagé

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Putting oil and gas on the bargaining table as the U.S.-Canada trade war heats up would pour gasoline on Alberta’s fall referendum. At least that’s what one separatist leader, Keith Wilson, is arguing. This week we ask Wilson why he thinks the trade war means Albertans should push for a binding referendum on separation in October. After that, journalists Tyler Dawson from the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star’s Richard Warnica weigh in with host Kathleen Petty on some major questions: how will the trade war influence the referendum campaign? What's the likelihood oil will be used as a cudgel in this dispute? And who comes out ahead when everyone from Doug Ford to Mark Carney to Danielle Smith is talking trade and unity? Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Keith Wilson, Tyler Dawson and Richard Warnica Producers: Emily Senger, Emily Williams, Diane Yanko

From how we entered confederation to how Alberta is debating its future within it, a new book tries to anticipate where the province is headed. "The Dawn of Competitive Party Politics in Alberta: An End To Solitude" explores the enigma that is Alberta and pulls back the curtain. Anthony Sayers, David Stewart and Royce Koop provide a revelatory journey through how the province has defined itself politically over the years, what that tells us about what makes Alberta tick and how that may be changing. Sayers joins host Kathleen Petty to explore how Alberta is unique among the provinces and why, more than ever, it's important to understand its influence in Canada. Host: Kathleen Petty Guest: Anthony Sayers Producer: Diane Yanko

**New episode drops Friday, August 21** ENCORE PRESENTATION There’s great concern that people in Ottawa aren’t taking what’s happening in Alberta seriously enough. With national unity at stake, some Senators are looking west from the upper chamber and acknowledging there are indeed structural issues at the federal level that’s fueling frustration. This week on West of Centre, Kathleen Petty welcomes a panel of Prairies senators. Alberta Senator Paula Simons, who was appointed in 2018 and sits in the Independent Senators Group; Saskatchewan Senator Pamela Wallin, appointed in 2008; and Manitoba Senator Charles Adler, who was appointed in 2024. Both sit in the Canadian Senators Group. The panel pulls no punches in questioning whether Canada has done the work it needs to become a true energy superpower. For them, it’s time to turn words into action. As trade tensions with the U.S. simmer, they’re blunt on CUSMA: Canada can’t take its own self-interest out of the equation because negotiations are not about love, but business. And while they disagree on the strategy for a potential fall referendum on separation, they also tackle another referendum question about Senate abolishment. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Senator Charles Adler, Senator Paula Simons, Senator Pamela Wallin Producer: Diane Yanko

**New episode drops Friday, August 21** ENCORE PRESENTATION Back in January 2001, six influential Alberta conservatives sent then premier Ralph Klein the now famous 'firewall letter.' Under the heading 'Alberta Agenda,' the letter proposed withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan, establishing a provincial police force, bypassing the Canada Revenue Agency in favour of the province collecting its own income tax, and Senate reform. These ideas were seen as fringe. Extremist even. But with the passage of time, some of the key measures in the firewall letter have influenced conservative policy in Alberta, and are now being set in motion 25 years later by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. This week, West of Centre host Kathleen Petty gets the inside story on the firewall letter, straight from two of its signatories. Ted Morton, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and a former PC cabinet minister; and Ken Boessenkool, a longtime policy advisor who worked with former prime minister Stephen Harper (credited as the catalyst for the letter, and another one of its six signatories). These insiders describe how the hostile reaction to the letter came as a surprise, as the ideas contained in the letter were things other provinces were already doing. They talk about the visceral reaction 25 years ago to the word 'firewall,' and how it came to be added to the letter. And how the nine questions on a referendum that Albertans will vote on in the fall is seen as 'anti-firewall letter.' Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Ken Boessenkool, Ted Morton Producer: Diane Yanko

**New episode drops Friday, August 21** ENCORE PRESENTATION What does a kid from Nanton, Alta., write in his private journals after spending his days influencing some of Pierre Elliott Trudeau's most controversial policies? This week on West of Centre, host Kathleen Petty takes a peek into The Coutts Diaries: Power, Politics, and Pierre Trudeau 1973-1981, with the book's editor, Ron Graham. As the prime minister's principal secretary, Jim Coutts was said to have exercised more backroom power than anyone else in modern Canadian political history. He was everywhere that mattered during the Trudeau era 50 years ago, and then went home and wrote a lot of it down. Just as you'd expect from a diary, Coutts' offers juicy insight into exactly what he thought of both Alberta premier Peter Lougheed and Progressive Conservative Party leader Joe Clark. His entries reveal how influential he was as the reviled National Energy Program was being devised in the spring of 1980. And his private anxieties about inflation, affordability, energy prices and Western alienation read like they could have been written today. As Albertans' anger toward Ottawa reached a boiling point, Coutts understood the West's legitimate grievances. But his diaries show he was a strategist first, who prioritized his party's survival no matter the cost to his reputation back home. Host: Kathleen Petty Guest: Ron Graham Producer: Diane Yanko

As Canada stares down the barrel of fresh U.S. tariffs (50 per cent), there is a realization that the counter-strategies that succeeded in President Donald Trump's first term won't cut it today. For our expert panel, the power to change Trump's mind won't come down to the federal government or Prime Minister Mark Carney. Instead, the pressure will come from America's voters, businesses and political funders. What game is the U.S. playing in targeting products such as Christmas decorations, dog leashes, toilet paper and hockey sticks, while exempting crude oil, potash and critical minerals? Host Kathleen Petty has assembled a couple of the big guns to help make sense of the strategy: Gitane De Silva, executive director of the University of Alberta's Peter Lougheed School of Politics and Democracy; founder and president of GDStrategic; and Alberta's senior representative to the United States from 2016 to 2019. Martha Hall Findlay, a member of Carleton University's expert group on Canada-U.S. Relations; director of the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy; and a former Liberal MP. As Canada contemplates how it may respond, the experts caution there's a big difference between standing strong and hitting back. They say our country needs to stop wishing the U.S. would play fair, and focus on what can actually be done about the trade relationship. They say Alberta is getting greater recognition thanks to the dispute, and that Albertans and Canadians are seeing how each province contributes to the country as a whole. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Gitane De Silva, Martha Hall Findlay Producer: Diane Yanko

A non-binding trilateral agreement to advance the multibillion-dollar Pathways Project, as part of the push to build a new bitumen pipeline to B.C.'s southwest coast, has now been reached. But in this episode of the podcast, there are serious questions about the math: on emissions, economics, and business case. Host Kathleen Petty is joined this week by three journalists who have all been analyzing this latest MOU: Max Fawcett, lead columnist for Canada's National Observer. Emma Graney, energy reporter for the Globe and Mail. Jason Markusoff, writer and producer for the CBC. Along with some head-scratching when it comes to the math, the panel wonders about the ability to fill the new pipeline. They note the absence of oil company representatives alongside the prime minister and Alberta premier for these major announcements, and question how long the companies will sit on the sidelines. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Max Fawcett, Emma Graney, Jason Markusoff Producer: Diane Yanko

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and several prominent federal Conservatives, including leader Pierre Poilievre, had a showdown with Calgary's mayor over a local noise bylaw. It was a master class in political communication by Jeromy Farkas, according to one panellist, in a battle with the Conservative political machine over how long and how loudly people are allowed to party in the Stampede city. Sounding off with host Kathleen Petty this week: Alex Boyd, Calgary-based writer for the Toronto Star. Rob Breakenridge, a columnist and podcast host at The Line. Jason Markusoff, producer and writer for the CBC. The panel also dissects the nine referendum questions on immigration and constitutional reforms on the fall ballot in Alberta, musing whether they're moot when voters are being asked to contemplate breaking apart the country. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Alex Boyd, Rob Breakenridge, Jason Markusoff Producer: Diane Yanko

About 3.4 million Albertans are eligible to receive a $100 energy rebate. The provincial government says the cash will bring meaningful relief from the pain of the cost of living. But for some on this week's episode, the move doesn't cure what's causing affordability issues in the province. This week, host Kathleen Petty is joined by The Hub's Alberta Edge podcast panellists. Falice Chin, Alberta bureau chief for The Hub. Amber Ruddy, a former Conservative staffer and a vice-president at Counsel Public Affairs. Keith McLaughlin, a former chief of staff for Alberta NDP cabinet ministers and a partner at New West Public Affairs. Also on this episode: disagreement about where the heated rhetoric is headed around Alberta treaty chiefs calling for the RCMP and auditor general to investigate whether the fall referendum amounts to criminal treason by Premier Danielle Smith and her UCP government. However, all agree the option of an early election is a strategic necessity even if it's highly unlikely. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Falice Chin, Amber Ruddy, Keith McLaughlin Producer: Diane Yanko

Danielle Smith uses the energy MOU has Exhibit A in her argument for remaining in Canada. Pierre Poilievre uses it as Exhibit A in making his case that the federal government is failing Alberta. Our guests worry that divisions over how to battle separatism could fracture the provincial conservatives and even pose problems for federal conservatives. Host Kathleen Petty is joined by two people with deep ties to the Conservative movement. Ian Brodie is a former chief of staff to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, and a senior advisor at New West Public Affairs. Sean Speer served as senior economic policy advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and is editor-at-large at The Hub. Both explore the perils of this debate within the broader Conservative movement. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Ian Brodie, Sean Speer Producer: Diane Yanko

West of Centre 's citizen panel is back, this time to weigh in on October's referendum, where Albertans will be asked to decide the future of their province within Confederation. Returning to join host Kathleen Petty are Darryl Stanier, who runs a logistics supply chain business; Sunil Shah, an electrical engineer; and Chelsea Matisz, a research scientist. The panel agrees Alberta has legitimate grievances within Confederation. But they disagree on whether the 10 questions Albertans will vote on are necessary. They have differing takes on whether the Alberta-Ottawa memorandum of understanding will lead to a new bitumen pipeline to B.C. One panellist says Premier Danielle Smith is losing the art of humility and the United Conservative Party is governing for its base rather than the majority of Albertans. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Chelsea Matisz, Darryl Stanier, Sunil Shah Producer: Diane Yanko

As Albertans contemplate an October referendum that will see them choose between the province remaining in Canada or starting the process toward a future binding independence vote, the governing United Conservative Party is starting to show signs of internal strain and vulnerability of its leader, Premier Danielle Smith. The political game in Alberta has changed. The debate around the future of the province has ignited emotion on all sides, and has morphed into "primordial politics," a deeply-entrenched, identity-based attachment to your side. This week on West of Centre , host Kathleen Petty is joined by two long-time observers of politics in Alberta, with deep knowledge of how the political landscape has evolved. Anthony Sayers is a political science professor and director of Canadian governance policy in the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy; and David Stewart is a professor emeritus in the University of Calgary's political science department. Both are frequent collaborators who have co-authored a number of papers and academic book chapters, and they have a new book that will be published this summer, The Dawn of Competitive Party Politics in Alberta: An End to Solitude. In this rare conversation, Sayers and Stewart tap into the past, where the governing Progressive Conservatives enjoyed little opposition until the Wild Rose Party came along and posed a credible threat. But the merging of the parties has pushed the UCP further to the right, forcing the party to keep its base motivated and ready to turn out in an election. They say the UCP is a different party from when Jason Kenney was leader, and even more difficult for Smith to manage. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Anthony Sayers, David Stewart Producer: Diane Yanko

Let’s make a deal, Alberta! Will it be door No. 1 or door No. 2? Except there’s no zonk prize, and you’re not allowed to switch. Alberta’s premier has put an end to the speculation about whether voters will get a say on the future of the province. Danielle Smith has announced a tenth referendum question on the ballot in October with two choices: should Alberta remain in Canada or should the provincial government start the process toward a binding referendum on separation? What is the premier’s wager, based on the design of the question? And will anyone be happy with this next move to try to settle an emotional debate happening in the province? It’s one of the topics of discussion this week on West of Centre . Host Kathleen Petty is joined by Matthew Scace, a Calgary-based reporter for the Globe and Mail who covers politics and provincial affairs, and Jason Markusoff, a writer and producer for CBC. Also in this episode, we’re drilling down on the landmark Alberta-Ottawa energy deal, which has now entered the implementation agreement phase. How will industry and investors feel about a referendum on the question of separation pushing uncertainty about the province's future well past October? Amanda Stephenson, Canada energy correspondent for Reuters, and Robert (RJ) Johnston, director of energy and natural resources policy with the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, share their analysis. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Jason Markusoff, Matthew Scace; Amanda Stephenson, Robert (RJ) Johnston Producer: Diane Yanko

'The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat'. It's an old chestnut that seems apropos in the blood sport of Alberta politics. The victory is for the Alberta government, as it clears another hurdle in its landmark energy deal with Ottawa. The province has reached an agreement with the federal government on increasing the effective industrial carbon price to $130 per tonne by 2040. While the Pathways Project on carbon capture, utilization and storage, a potential pipeline route, and a private sector proponent are still to come, the agreement could see construction on an oil pipeline to British Columbia start as early as September 2027. The defeat is for Alberta separatists hoping to see a question about independence on October's referendum ballot. A judge threw out a separatist petition, ruling that Elections Alberta should not have approved it and citing a failure to consult with First Nations. Premier Danielle Smith is now facing calls to put the separation question on the ballot herself. Kathleen Petty is joined on West of Centre this week by Trevor Harrison, a political sociologist at the University of Lethbridge; Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University; and Jack Farrell, an Alberta legislative reporter for The Canadian Press. Host: Kathleen Petty Guests: Jack Farrell, Trevor Harrison, Lori Williams Producer: Diane Yanko

Supporters of Alberta independence are celebrating this week after over 300,000 signatures calling for a referendum on separation were submitted to Elections Alberta. But it comes as another separatist group, the Centurion Project, is being investigated by the RCMP, Elections Alberta and Alberta’s privacy commissioner for its use of a voters list with the information of nearly three million Albertans. West of Centre guest host Jason Markusoff is joined this week by Tyler Dawson, an editor for the Globe and Mail’s opinion section and the author of the new book The Republic of Alberta , and Rob Breakenridge, a Calgary-based journalist and podcaster. Host: Jason Markusoff Guests: Rob Breakenridge, Tyler Dawson Producer: Diane Yanko