UBS On-Air: Market Moves

China's latest economic data showed a lackluster domestic economy. Retail sales slowed, and were weaker than expected. Domestic investment plunged more than expected. Industrial production is being supported by external demand and China's success in helping US customers avoid tariffs.

Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing, sheds light on the evolving relationship between women investors and the wealth management industry. We discuss whether there is a need for a different approach when it comes to working with women investors, what to know about the next generation of women investors, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The recently reported AI-assisted solution to the Navier–Stokes problem points to AI’s broadening role in frontier scientific research, raising the question of where faster discovery could translate into investment value. This episode explores how that progress could open new opportunities across healthcare, energy, and advanced materials, and reinforce the long-term investment themes of AI, power and resources, and longevity.

Political polarization is testing Europe’s established parties and confronting markets with the prospect of larger policy shifts. Germany’s regional elections have brought the growing influence of parties outside the traditional mainstream into focus, while France’s presidential election could shape the pace of future European integration. Why might fiscal spending fail to ease voter discontent, and how should investors respond to a less predictable political landscape? In the latest episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Ulander are joined by UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan to discuss the implications for European integration, fiscal policy, global trade, and portfolio diversification.

This week, Shane talks about recent developments surrounding Missouri’s redistricting efforts, recaps President Trump’s keynote address at GOP midterm convention, and reflects on the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is a sad comment on the quality of communication by the US central bank that a single US consumer price inflation number can have so much sway over policy expectations. Single data points should not be relied on to this extent. If today’s data does not produce a US rate hike in September, disinflationary forces may keep rates on hold this year. If rates are raised, a second rate hike would probably follow.

The ECB is almost certain to repeat its earlier policy rate error and unnecessarily raise interest rates. There is unlikely to be any inflation or economic growth impact, but a further rate increase erodes borrowers’ ability to manage future economic crises. This should be the last error, unless oil prices get so high the ECB feels it needs to create a recession in the non-oil economy to create non-oil deflation.

Sunny Mehra, Consumer Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide a health check on the US consumer, including a look a recent spending trends and overall sentiment. Sunny reflects on the 2026 back to school shopping season, and previews how retailers are preparing for the upcoming holidays. Plus, a look at positioning preferences across the US Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Hamburg, Germany as he shares takeaways from meetings held with families and their family officers where they discussed family wealth, family governance and generational transfers. Burkhard also recites the poem “IF” and explains how the messaging relates to the art of investing.

China’s August consumer and producer price inflation was slightly higher. The suggestion is not that better demand is driving up prices, but that global inflation forces are being allowed to trickle into domestic pricing.

Kurt and Shane drop by to discuss the two of the most consequential policy questions of the 2025 mid-term election cycle - something old (Social Security), and something new (Artificial Intelligence). These two issues differ greatly in age and character, but voters in both parties share concerns about each. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors from Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

China’s July trade data showed ongoing growth in exports—some of this reflects re-exporting. The gap between what China says it is selling to the US and what the US admits to buying from China has reached extraordinary levels. China’s market share of US non-oil imports is 13.2% (China export data) or 8.4% (US import data). This suggests China’s US customers have become adept at avoiding tariffs, supporting China’s export sector.

Markets’ responses to last Friday’s US employment report rebuke US monetary policy communication. The report showed strong payrolls growth, but unemployment rates drifted very slowly higher. The labor market is not creating accelerating wages. Market rate hike expectations increased, but the decision is still essentially a coin toss. With a clearly communicated framework for monetary policy, markets would not be plagued by such indecision.

With inflation and labor data providing a mixed picture on the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the Fed faces a closely balanced decision between a rate hike and a hold. This episode explores what either outcome could mean for the yield curve, equity valuations, and portfolio positioning in an environment of uncertain policy outlook.

Shane drops by ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend to update on this week’s developments up on Capitol Hill, including Congressional efforts to keep the government funded, and progress on the Open-Source AI Leadership Act. Plus, an update on renewed military tensions between the US and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the unnecessarily uncertain world of US monetary policy, we heard from Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Waller signaled a desire for unchanged policy, as disinflation forces seem to continue. If disinflation ceased, then Waller would reconsider. This is similar to New York Fed President Williams’ outlook. These two Fed members command more respect than some other Fed members, and their words moved markets.

Paul Baiocchi, Head of ETF Distribution with SS&C ALPS Advisors, drops by UBS Studios for a wide-ranging discussion around “the electrification of everything”, including a look at the opportunity-set, risk considerations, and how to think about investing in the theme. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The yen has been gyrating amidst speculation about intervention in the markets and the possibility of more aggressive action by the Bank of Japan. A Japanese market holiday looms. Intervention only changes a currency’s value if there is a speculative attack to defeat (there is not) or if fundamentals change. Interest rates are a relevant fundamental, but one of many.

While on a visit to Portugal, Burkhard drops by to highlight the factors that have contributed to the country’s economic success, and what investors should know. Burkhard also reflects on the Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech last Friday, and how markets responded.

Crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing fighting in the Gulf. US gasoline prices have not moved much higher, because they did not move much lower when crude oil prices fell. US President Trump’s seeming willingness to overlook record low approval ratings and the threat of losing the midterm elections is challenging markets’ optimism bias.