Macro Waves

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, energy markets have experienced increased volatility, with a marked rise in oil and gas prices. However, our analysis indicates that the impact on advanced economies is likely to be moderate, provided that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not drag on. What mechanisms are at work and what risks have been identified? In this new episode, Lucie Barette and Marianne Mueller analyse the consequences of the current energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East on advanced economies BNP Paribas Economic Research website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Welcome to this new episode of MacroWaves , the podcast from BNP Paribas’s Economic Research department. In this episode, we’re joined by Pascal Devaux to discuss a crucial issue for Europe: its energy dependence. Reliance on imports highlights the European Union’s lack of energy sovereignty. This applies to both the primary energy mix and the infrastructure needed for its low-carbon transition. The EU is making progress, however, albeit very slowly. To what extent is the European Union dependent? What approaches could enable it to reverse the trend, or at least make progress? That is what we will explore in this episode. https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this new episode of MacroWaves, we examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping growth in emerging economies. We hear from three economists at BNP Paribas Economic Research: Lucas Plé, Christine Peltier, and Hélène Drouot. While Asia dominates semiconductor production, other countries, such as those in Latin America and Africa, are either exploiting their mineral resources or falling behind. What challenges will they face? The answers lie in moving upmarket, securing energy supplies and avoiding increased geopolitical dependence in order to transform this opportunity into sustainable productivity gains. https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Between rising interest rates, an ageing population and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for advanced economies is becoming increasingly complex. Why is debt continuing to grow in the United States and France, while it is falling in Spain and Italy? How does Germany intend to finance its infrastructure and defence without jeopardising its budgetary stability? In this new episode of En Eco dans le texte, Stéphane Colliac, Marianne Mueller and Benjamin Puiseux explain the inner workings of public debt. They also explore reasons for optimism: from the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity to reforms in the employment rate of senior citizens. These are certainly significant constraints, but are they really insurmountable? Delve into the issues that will shape global economies between now and the end of the decade. https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Macro Waves, the BNP Paribas Economic Research podcast. Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, growth has remained very moderate in the Eurozone, while it has accelerated sharply in the United States. After the pandemic, the inflationary crisis and contrasting economic policies of recent years, where do we stand on either side of the Atlantic? https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries? That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert on Latin America and Lucas Plé, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade? Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries. In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics. #growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk Reading advice : Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas Sound credit : Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, during the IMF World Economic Outlook' press briefing, April 2025. # Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2025 - YouTube Extract from Jérome Powell's speech at the May 7, 2025 FOMC press conference. # FOMC Press Conference May 7, 2025 Extact from the speech by Christine Lagarde, Président of the ECB, at the announcement of the ECB's latest monetary policy decisions, April 17, 2025. # President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025 Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured. Clic here to consult the graphic Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that? Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are:Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace? Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this third and final episode of the series dedicated to labour productivity in Spain, signs of encouragement for a recovery in Spanish productivity are presented, in particular thanks to a national recovery plan (2021-2026) that is in line with the España 2050 strategy, which consists of raising R&D investment. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this second episode of the series on labour productivity in Spain, Hélène Baudchon and Guillaume Derrien discuss the three main factors that explain Spain's low productivity. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this series of three podcasts "Focus on Labour Productivity in Spain" Hélène Baudchon, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of the OECD team, BNP Paribas Economics Department and Guillaume Derrien, Senior Economist in the same team, discuss productivity as an endemic weakness of the Spanish model. This first episode reviews the main trends in the evolution of productivity in Spain compared to its European neighbours over the last 25 years. Economic Research Website Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.