Mallen Baker: Faultlines

All weekend, the talk has been about the AI apocalypse, with the most well-known and powerful AI company leaders letting it be known that they favour a slowdown so the technology doesn't get out of control. It turns out that President Donald Trump has no time for such talk, he's obviously better informed on such things that the AI CEOs, and anyway - there's one driving reason why he doesn't want to slow down. And if it means accelerating towards aforementioned apocalypse, well, so be it. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 11th 2026: The Iranians take actions to escalate the war with the US, even as Trump is trying to keep it quiet. JD Vance lays out his stall for his shot at the presidency in 2028 as echoes of politics-as-usual can just faintly be heard. Everybody is talking about whether AI is soon about to end all human life on the planet - which would put the other items into context. And Germany lets it be known it is not happy with President Trump's promotion of the far-right AfD party's recent success.

President Donald Trump spoke for two hours at his unusual midterm elections conference - and the big headline was that he promised to pay every adult citizen of the United States $5,000 should Republicans win both the Senate and the House. Yes, this is obvious and naked bribery. Yes, it should be illegal if anyone's enforcing such laws any more. But really it's part of a pattern - a promise that's made that is clearly going to fail by design. And while it's been truly massive in terms of grabbing attention, it is much more a sign of desperation than it is a winning strategy. Let's discuss.

Today saw the imposition of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in the latest phase of its trade war with Donald Trump's America. In response, he has blustered and insulted, and today launched a broadside against Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier. But those covering the dispute as being about trade are missing the essential core of the conflict - which explains why the recent deal always had to fail, and the nature of the real struggle facing Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadians over the coming two years. Let's discuss.

The AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was not unexpected - polls have been forecasting the likely victory for months. But it remains shocking for what it represents. Because the AfD is not a populist like President Donald Trump, the clown show variety. Nor is it like Giorgia Meloni, the radical who detoxified the party into moderation. It is avowedly radical, and hostile to current Western attitudes to its core. And it has two big-picture implications that will resonate for the coming decade. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 4th 2026: The resignation of US Army secretary Dan Driscoll leaves Pete Hegseth exposed as more voices are raised against him - but could that actually make him the next MAGA presidential candidate? The US tells American space companies to consider avoiding a space conference being held by President Macron because the US wants to monopolise anything to do with space and France is to be considered a borderline enemy. And MAGA-lite Reform UK have their big reset day after difficult times, but find themselves in yet another almighty row. And this comes at a moment when the Trump administration, which they fashion themselves after, is gearing up to make life extremely difficult for Britain indeed.

The last few days have seen missiles exchanged once again between the United States and Iran. For all President Trump's threats to escalate and hit Iran 'harder than ever', he obviously is keen for the outburst to subside. And that's because the strategies have shifted into one where stalemate is the underpinning context, and each side is pursuing the course that they believe gives them the most advantage. Let's discuss.

The United States grabbed its turn to host the G20 summits in order to boast to the world about how wonderful its economic policies are, and to encourage everyone else to follow its lead, to submit to its rules, to experience the freedom of subservience. They may not have used those exact words, but not far off. By now, however, the rest of the world is looking to move on. Some, like the G20, are quietly planning their own path distinct from the Donald Trump one. Others - well, there was another summit happening this week, one that is founded on the vision of a very different world order. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump shamelessly declared almost immediately that he aimed to get a big slice of Venezuela's oil for the United States once it had removed former dictator Nicolas Maduro. But not only is he finding the practical reality of that oil grab more difficult than he had anticipated, his administration is having to try to manipulate the creation of some semblance of democracy in the country in such a way that doesn't immediately reverse the plunder. And it raises questions about what level of democracy the US will seek to allow, and how it will stop leaders it finds 'unhelpful', such as Maria Corina Machado, from leading it - and just how badly it might all go wrong. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 28th 2026: The US pushes NATO alliance members to declare their loyalty to Donald Trump, even as different stories emerge over the secret mission to talk to Moscow. President Trump signs an executive order to rename the Lake of Ontario while pretending it means something - but could the trade negotiations be restarted after a US climbdown? And AI firm Anthropic wins its lawsuit against Pete Hegseth's Pentagon over the retribution campaign being waged against it. Also, just a passing observation following the death of Dolly Parton.

John Ratcliffe, CIA Director, just made a surprise visit to Moscow. Nobody will say why, and speculation turned immediately to the idea he was there to push Putin on moving towards making peace with Ukraine. But that seems like wishful thinking, compared to the other likely explanations - one of which is supported by the suggestion of anonymous briefers, one of which is very much in line with this week's events so far. President Donald Trump has denied that anything significant is going on whatsoever, which is as big a tell that something is up as you could possibly need. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump really wants to make the decisive move that will bring Iran to heel, and end the war there in triumph. But his best chance is blocked by China. And he really wants to be able to bully all the former allies of the US into doing whatever he wants, whenever he wants it. But his power to do so is being exposed as weak by Canada. As his frustration at his impotence increases, we are seeing more noise and drama, but none of it can hide the fact that his strength is ebbing away before our eyes. Let's discuss.

The trade deal, which had been described as 'nearly there', fell apart. And Mark Carney explained after the event, it did so because a last minute insertion of demands that intruded onto Canada's sovereignty, as well as being one-sided. This is no surprise - it is the Trump playbook of the last two years. But Mark Carney went further, and called the US campaign 'war'. And this is the plain language that so far none others are daring to replicate. Perhaps it's time they did. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 21st 2026: Canada's Mark Carney is head to head with the Trump administration as attempts are made to get a last minute trade deal over the line. But is there more to it than meets the eye? Disney is fighting an apparent punitive censorship push by the Trump-friendly regulator, the FCC. And the US sanctions more top officials from the International Criminal Court - which could become a real test case in how many countries are going to be prepared to stand up to Trump's mafia behaviour.

The war in Iran has been at a standstill for months, with traffic trickling through the Strait of Hormuz, and no real impetus for negotiations. You should expect that, in such a situation, eventually people will change their approach to seek to gain a breakthrough advantage. And over the last week, we've seen this being signalled by President Donald Trump, and also by the Iranian leadership. The nature of the emerging plans is different, and you have to imagine that the chances of success are likewise. Let's discuss.

We've seen the bluster and the bullying of President Donald Trump in the headlines, but there is a quiet daily push going on much more under the surface. It is all the more insidious because it is little noticed, part of the daily friction of life in Trump World, and more to the point - it works. It is legal. It is unaccountable. And it is shaping decisions in all sorts of ways that many simply didn't see coming. Particularly focused on South America, as Trump claims the entire Western Hemisphere as his sphere of influence. Let's discuss.

President Trump has the appearance of a man furious at his lack of options - to the degree where he is thrashing out at whatever is within reach. So he threatened US ally Oman with being bombed if it 'gets in the way'. He slated ally South Korea because it declined to help him in Iran, even though its forces are very much needed on its own front line. However, he praised their enemy, North Korea. And, at times, he has praised as well the Iranian leadership. What is anyone serious to make of it all? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 14th 2026. President Trump is demanding expressions of loyalty from NATO members before deciding where US troops will be withdrawn. Is this the moment where it really gets ugly? 150 thousand Canadians are demanding that the US ambassador to their country Pete Hoekstra be booted out, as Alberta squares up to an independence referendum. The UK's MAGA-lite populist Nigel Farage wins his by-election against a man wearing a bin on his head - and astonishingly that seems not to have solved his problems. And various people are asking - what could every replace Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who is standing down?I have a suggestion. Let's discuss.

We just learned that Trump switched planes to fly out of the Turkey NATO summit, and he did so under the cover of a catering truck. There's one detail to this that nobody is commenting on - and a wider context that is likewise not getting attention, even though it's absolutely key to the dynamic of the Iran war, and why it's going the way it is. Let's discuss.

Various people in the know have said that President Donald Trump has not given up on his ambitions to get Greenland. And so we can see, as an oil company with strong connections to the president has been preparing to drill for oil there without the needed permission from the Greenlandic authorities. It's exactly the sort of pushing the system, asserting American privilege to do whatever they want, that could be part of Trump's battering ram approach. Interestingly, the Gandalv substack today published a very detailed scenario of how a US takeover of Greenland would be likely to proceed - and amongst the surprises contained within it are just how hard the US ultimately finds it to hold onto, and just how crucial a role Canada plays in deciding the outcome. Let's discuss. A link to the Gandalv scenario discussed in this video (paywalled, I'm afraid) https://gandalv.substack.com/p/what-a-us-war-with-europe-and-canada?r=1sy3z&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web