Art of Boring

AI CapEx is on track to reach roughly $700 billion at the four largest hyperscalers this year, and equity analyst Irena Petkovic breaks down where all that money is going and what has to be true for it to earn a return. She explains how data centers turned from cost centers into revenue-producing AI factories, the four ways hyperscalers monetize compute, and how the token economy actually works. She then weighs the early evidence of returns against the risks around token pricing, debt financing, and public backlash, and describes how the team positions the portfolio around it. 0:00 - Introduction: The $700 Billion AI CapEx Question 1:29 - How Big Is the Spend? Apollo, Telecom, and Railroads 4:11 - Data Centers as AI Factories: From Cost Center to Revenue 5:53 - Four Ways Hyperscalers Monetize Compute 7:10 - The Token Economy Explained 11:26 - Early Evidence of Returns on AI Investment 14:39 - The Bear Case: Token Prices, Debt, and Backlash 18:49 - Positioning the Portfolio Around AI 20:35 - Outro & Subscribe Highlights: Hyperscaler AI CapEx of about $700 billion this year is a scale rivaled historically only by the railroads. Capital intensity at Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon has jumped from 5-10% of revenue to upwards of 45%. A high return on invested capital justifies spending down free cash flow rather than protecting it. The data center is now a revenue-producing AI factory that turns electricity and chips into sellable tokens. Compute is monetized four ways: GPU rental, productivity products, enhancing own businesses, and selling tokens. Early returns look encouraging, with sub-three-year hardware payback cited and demand exceeding supply. Risks to watch are token prices falling faster than volumes and a shift toward debt-funded build outs. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Irena Petkovic, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@ MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/ company/mawer-investment- management/ https://www.instagram.com/ mawerinvestmentmanagement/

How do you value a memory semiconductor stock like SK Hynix when no one can predict DRAM prices? Equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo walks through the team's Monte Carlo valuation framework: a discounted cash flow run through thousands of scenarios that prices the business on a distribution of returns rather than a single forecast. He also explains how two-times leveraged single-stock ETFs have been amplifying SK Hynix's daily price swings, why regulators and Korean brokers are responding to retail leverage, and why flow-driven volatility can be a gift for long-term investors. The through-line: memory can be cyclical, structurally growing, and wealth-creating all at once. 0:00 - Introduction & Disclaimer 0:21 - How Do You Value a Memory Stock Amid Huge Uncertainty? 0:54 - Monte Carlo Valuation: Pricing SK Hynix on a Distribution of Outcomes 5:27 - Day-to-Day Volatility: Fundamentals or Flows? 6:17 - How 2x Leveraged Single-Stock ETFs Amplify SK Hynix Price Swings 9:40 - What Investors Underappreciate About the Memory Industry 10:21 - Closing Thoughts & Subscribe Key Takeaways Key uncertain variables (DRAM prices, supply response, China risk) are modelled as ranges and run through thousands of scenarios; the output is a distribution of returns, treated stochastically. SK Hynix scenarios: bull (prices hold through the decade), realistic (decline from 2028 as supply arrives), bear (accelerated decline on over-investment and Chinese supply). The test is being paid adequately across the whole distribution, not picking the right scenario; the distribution centred around 12% with positive skew. New data points (LTAs signed, capacity expansion) update the distributions; position sizing follows the shape, and the team trimmed as the shares ran. Two-times leveraged ETFs rebalance by buying after rises and selling after falls, amplifying 10 to 15% daily moves in SK Hynix. Flow-driven volatility widens the gap between price and value, which long-term investors can use. Memory can be cyclical, structurally growing, and wealth-creating at the same time. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Shan Rui Yeo, CFA, Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@ MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/ company/mawer-investment- management/ https://www.instagram.com/ mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcast #Finance #Investing #semiconductor #tech #techexplained #memory #skhynix

Memory has been one of the strongest corners of the semiconductor industry, and strong returns invite hard questions. In the second part of this series, equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo examines the main risks to the memory thesis: rising competition from China's CXMT and YMTC, the technologies that could reduce AI's appetite for memory, and the wave of capacity investment that could eventually tip the industry back into oversupply. He weighs each risk against the constraints holding it back, from equipment export controls to limited EUV supply, and notes that memory companies already trade at three to five times forward earnings. The conversation closes on a working principle: treat the terminal value as a distribution, not a fixed number. Key Takeaways China's CXMT is expanding DRAM capacity aggressively, but export controls on sub-18 nanometre equipment and EUV keep its effective supply share (about 10%) below its capacity share (about 15%). YMTC is the more credible technological threat: NAND density comes from stacking layers, and its Xtacking hybrid bonding architecture is proprietary. Efficiency gains may grow memory consumption rather than reduce it; cheaper tokens get spent on larger context windows (the Jevons paradox). The deepest risk is architectural: if large language models are not the path to AGI, the next paradigm may not be memory hungry, so terminal value is a distribution, not a fixed number. Announced capex is enormous but back-loaded into the 2030s, and EUV and equipment capacity are the bottleneck to bringing it online. Memory companies trade at three to five times forward earnings; the market is not assuming supernormal profits forever, and the NAND supply outlook is better in the near term. Companies Mentioned: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT (ChangXin Memory), YMTC (Yangtze Memory), Apple, NVIDIA, Google, ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, TSMC, Intel, Kioxia Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Shan Rui Yeo, CFA, Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

One of the defining market stories of the past 12 months has not been AI chips that compute, but the chips that remember. Equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo explains how memory works, from DRAM and NAND to high bandwidth memory, and how an industry that destroyed wealth for four decades became disciplined after consolidating to three players in 2013. He then walks through what changed: AI inference has made memory the key bottleneck, memory content is climbing with each new generation of GPUs, and new supply takes three to four years to build. With prices up sharply and customers signing long-term agreements, Part 1 of this three-part conversation lands on a commodity industry whose business model is changing in real time. Key Takeaways Memory is a commodity with a three-to-four-year supply lag, which is why the cycle has always been difficult. Consolidation to three players in 2013 turned four decades of wealth destruction into at least 15% returns on capital through the cycles. In AI inference, memory bandwidth sets the speed of token generation, making memory the key bottleneck. NVIDIA's Rubin GPU carries 384 GB of DRAM, the equivalent of 32 iPhones per GPU, or 160 million iPhones across five million GPUs. HBM consumes three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM (four times with HBM4) and is forecast to absorb 30% of DRAM wafers by 2027. DRAM contract prices are up roughly 200% year to date and 400 to 500% year over year, and price increases are reaching phones, laptops, and consoles. Customers are signing three-to-five-year agreements with prepayments, which could support a re-rating of memory companies. Companies Mentioned: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, NVIDIA, Intel, Texas Instruments, Apple, Nintendo Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Shan Rui Yeo, CFA, Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

Canada has spent a generation underinvesting in the infrastructure and resources that underpin its economy, and that may be starting to change. Canadian small cap equity analyst Dominic Drzazga examines the Build Canada theme: what it actually means beyond the headlines, and what has shifted since the federal election. He walks through the legislative groundwork, from the Building Canada Act to a fast-tracked pipeline of named projects, and explains why the clearest near-term opportunities potentially sit in the middle of the value chain rather than with the eventual asset owners. Above all, he frames Build Canada as a long-horizon shift, one where the discipline is separating the projects that break ground from those that stay on the press release. Key Takeaways What the Build Canada theme really means, beyond physical infrastructure to Canada's untapped resources and human capital. The legislative changes since the election: the Building Canada Act, faster approvals, and the new Major Projects Office. The project pipeline taking shape, from LNG Canada's Kitimat expansion to Ontario Power Generation's small modular reactors. Why the near-term beneficiaries are in the middle of the value chain, not the eventual asset owners. How the portfolio is positioned: Bird Construction, Dexterra Group, and Black Diamond. The key risks: projects that stall, and cost and schedule overruns, and how the team manages them. Companies Mentioned: Bird Construction, Dexterra Group, Black Diamond Group, Aecon, Dow Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Dominic Drzazga, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Canadian equities gained in the second quarter of 2026 even as the economy tripped the technical definition of a recession and an oil shock sent crude toward $120 before it fell back. Institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas and investment counsellor Stu Morrow review the quarter, from the gap between the Canadian market and the Canadian economy to the case for holding commodity exposure as geopolitical risk becomes a recurring feature rather than a one-off. They also discuss what a narrow, AI-led rally means for a diversified portfolio, record hyperscaler bond issuance in Canada, and how the Bank of Canada and the Fed held rates through a volatile stretch. The conversation closes on the quarter's asset allocation: trimming equities back toward a neutral mix. Key Takeaways Canada met the technical definition of a recession, but the picture underneath was nuanced. GDP rebounded about 0.5% in April with most industries expanding, and per-capita output grew, closer to a stall-speed economy than a true contraction. The market and the economy can tell different stories. Financials and energy dominate the TSX while real estate and healthcare drive more of the real economy, which helps explain a roughly 7% TSX return alongside soft growth. Geopolitical risk increasingly looks like a recurring condition rather than a rare tail event. With oil spiking near $120 before falling back toward $70, the episode makes the case that commodity exposure can play a portfolio-construction role, chosen selectively where valuation and business quality support it, rather than serving as a call on prices. The Fed stood pat under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the Bank of Canada held across its April and June meetings after cutting substantially. In Canadian bonds, the team added duration as yields rose on inflation fears and removed it as they fell. On AI, the aim is not to guess whether the buildout keeps running, but to choose which risk to live with: too much concentration in the theme on one side, or falling behind by stepping away from it on the other. The team keeps the portfolio from leaning too far in either direction by weighing the companies spending on the buildout against the hyperscalers earning from it, since one company's capital spending is another's revenue. With memory stocks, the risk lies less in the multiple paid than in the cyclicality of the earnings. Credit was constructive, with record hyperscaler issuance in Canada including a $14 billion Amazon deal that Mawer participated in. With spreads tight, positioning stayed higher-quality and shorter-dated, and the balanced strategy trimmed equities back toward a neutral asset mix. Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA, Mawer Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

Investment teams increasingly build and rely on their own AI tools, but the payoff depends on how deliberately a team reinvests the time that AI frees up. Emerging markets portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong walks through how his team puts believability-weighted decision making into daily practice, and where AI has genuinely enhanced the process. He closes with a tour of the emerging-market themes he is watching most closely, from reshoring and clean-room capacity to physical AI, low-earth-orbit satellites, and businesses winning simply by putting the customer first. Above all, he returns to the idea that AI's real value lies in what a team chooses to do with the time it saves. Key Takeaways The team practices believability-weighted decision making: deferring more to teammates with deeper expertise on a given name, while still doing enough independent work to spot blind spots. One of AI's biggest productivity gain so far for the team has been in forensic analysis, running deeper, more consistent checks across longer time periods than a human could alone, freeing up time for higher-value work like idea generation and company research. That saved time is meant to be reinvested, not banked: attending more conferences, joining more management calls, and turning insight generation itself into a discipline, described as "learning compression." On reshoring, the team sees opportunity less in the household names and more in the infrastructure behind the shift: industrial park developers, port operators, and specialized clean-room engineering firms like Acter Group and CTP. Beyond AI and reshoring, the team explores other areas such as physical AI and low-earth-orbit satellites, as well as EM businesses, such as NU Holdings, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank, that win by being more customer-obsessed than entrenched incumbents. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Wen Quan Cheong, CFA Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

AI portfolio construction in global equity markets (memory semiconductors, mega IPOs, and how to manage concentration risk) is the focus of this conversation with Mawer's global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz. Drawing on Homer's Odyssey, he explains the discipline the team applies when navigating themes that are moving quickly: from trimming SK Hynix systematically as the position grew, to sizing up what a wave of large IPOs means for cost of capital, to the central trade-off between underexposure and overconcentration in the AI complex. He also puts numbers around the portfolio's AI positioning and explains how hyperscaler holdings act as a natural offset. The episode closes on humility as a process requirement, reflected in the portfolio's expansion to nearly 90 names with smaller, more incremental position sizing. Key Takeaways Memory semiconductors, including SK Hynix, illustrate the discipline required around fast-moving themes. The team has sold back nearly as much as it invested in SK Hynix while the position has grown to over 5% of the portfolio — a deliberate trimming driven by ongoing valuation modeling, not a change in the thesis. The risk is not the price-to-earnings multiple; it is the cyclicality of earnings, and the question of how long the current upcycle runs. Odysseus' response to the Sirens when he ties himself to the mast and has his crew row with beeswax in their ears is a useful analogy for process. Decisions made in advance of the moment of seduction, grounded in a systematic valuation framework, are more reliable than decisions made in the heat of a rapid move. Large IPOs entering markets signal a more capital-intensive economic period and raise real questions about where the capital comes from. Companies already in the S&P 500 benefit from a structural cost-of-capital advantage over those outside it, and the team watches for what needs to be sold as large new issuers absorb liquidity. A period of multiple compression, while uncomfortable for near-term statements, improves long-term reinvestment returns. The Scylla-versus-Charybdis choice (the monster on one side, the whirlpool on the other) maps directly onto the AI portfolio construction problem. The team's AI hardware exposure sits at approximately 22.7% of the portfolio; a 50% drawdown in that sleeve would represent roughly an 11-12% hit to the overall portfolio. An offsetting 15.5% is held in hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) whose capital expenditure is the revenue of the hardware side, producing a natural hedge that brings net directional AI exposure to around 7-8%. The team's response to the Cyclops story (Odysseus boasting after his victory, which brought years of suffering from Poseidon) is portfolio humility expressed through construction. The global equity portfolio now holds just under 90 names, with positions sized smaller and traded in smaller increments to reduce the cost of being wrong and to manage in a high-volatility environment. Some holdings that look nothing like AI businesses have begun moving with AI sentiment. The team treats these correlation shifts as arbitrage opportunities: when something is priced as an AI stock but carries different underlying risk, there may be a better entry or exit available elsewhere in the complex. 0:00 - Introduction: Homer's Odyssey and the AI Trade 1:39 - The Sirens: Memory Stocks, SK Hynix, and Valuation Discipline 7:54 - Managing a Position That Has Grown Beyond Its Cost Base 10:30 - Mega IPOs, Cost of Capital, and Index Inclusion Advantage 15:49 - Scylla vs. Charybdis: Choosing Your Risk in AI 17:58 - AI Portfolio Construction: Numbers, Offsets, and Net Exposure 23:11 - Correlation Creep: When Non-AI Stocks Start Acting Like AI 24:42 - The Cyclops Story: Humility, Diversification, and Process 26:53 - Closing: Managing Money Across Generations 27:15 - Outro and Subscribe Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA, Global Equity Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Canada's stock market has set repeated record highs in 2026, even as the domestic economy feels soft. Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford explains the gap between the two, and why a large weight in financials can represent more diversification rather than less. He walks through how the team rotated within the sector as the banks re-rated, and the discipline behind trimming a gold position that had run. As indexes themselves have grown more concentrated, the conversation lands on a simple idea: knowing what you own matters more than ever. Key takeaways • The Canadian market and the Canadian economy can tell very different stories. Commodities and financials drive a large share of corporate earnings even though relatively few people work in those sectors, which helps explain record markets alongside near-zero real growth. • A large weight in financials is not a single bet. Beneath the label sit banks, life, property and casualty insurers, alternative asset managers, and exchanges, each with its own return drivers and correlations. • Position weights reflect what has worked, but they are not fixed. As the banks re-rated from roughly 10 to 12 times earnings toward 15 to 16 times, the team recycled capital into property and casualty insurers and alternative asset managers offering more attractive returns. • Gold earns its place through company economics, not a price forecast. Royalty businesses and selected miners were added for their free cash flow and differentiated correlation, then trimmed as the combined weight grew and the rate and inflation backdrop shifted. • Trimming winners is as much a part of the discipline as finding them. Allowing any single position or exposure to grow unchecked introduces risk that has nothing to do with the original thesis. • Indexes have become increasingly concentrated vehicles. Knowing what you own, and holding exposures by deliberate choice rather than by default, can be key to real diversification. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

In this episode, portfolio manager Steven Visscher covers how Mawer's balanced portfolios navigated 2025 and how they are positioned in 2026. With a war-driven energy shock on one side and an AI investment boom on the other, the market is pulling in two directions at once. Steven walks through what that means for asset mix, where the team is seeing signs of investor complacency, and why cracks in private credit could soon create a meaningful opportunity. Key Takeaways: Two forces are competing for market direction in 2026: a war-driven energy shock from the conflict in Iran pushing inflation and rates higher, and a broadening AI investment boom driving strong earnings momentum across the global economy. AI capital investment has expanded well beyond the hyperscalers to include memory, storage, cooling, data centres, and electrical grid infrastructure, with more than 80% of S&P 500 Q1 reporters beating earnings expectations. Current positioning remains close to neutral at 60% equity, with a continued underweight to U.S. equities in favour of international and emerging markets. Valuations, interest rates, and investor psychology all support staying close to that neutral stance. Cracks in private credit are emerging through rising defaults and client redemption gating. The team is building global credit exposure gradually and is prepared to deploy capital more aggressively when a dislocation occurs. In an environment of competing forces and mixed signals, staying diversified, maintaining valuation discipline, and building portfolios that can withstand multiple scenarios remains the priority. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Jeff Mo, U.S. mid-cap portfolio manager, explores a fundamental shift in how economies may grow over the next decade. He makes the case that after 25 years of intangible, internet-driven expansion, growth may increasingly depend on building physical things again: data centers, electrical infrastructure, factories, defense systems, satellites. Jeff walks through the forces driving this transition, from AI's voracious appetite for capital to geopolitical tensions reshaping supply chains and defense spending. The conversation examines how these macro themes connect to bottom-up stock selection, where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities today, and why maintaining inherent contradictions in the portfolio remains essential even as thematic investing dominates market behavior. • Why producing one unit of GDP today requires about a third as much oil as in the 1970s, yet capital expenditure per unit of GDP growth may be rising as the economy shifts from intangible services back toward physical infrastructure and manufacturing. • How AI data center buildouts, reshoring of manufacturing, rising defense budgets, and the expanding space economy are all driving higher demand for physical capital, commodities, and industrial capacity after a decade of underinvestment. • How the hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are moving from massive net cash positions to net debt as they fund AI infrastructure, tightening capital availability for the rest of the economy and potentially raising interest rates and dampening consumer spending. • Where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities aligned with these themes, from companies like Northrop Grumman, SanDisk, and OSI Systems, while maintaining portfolio balance through inherent contradictions. • Why humility matters most when contemplating big-picture themes: the goal isn't predicting the future but building a diversified portfolio of wealth-creating companies that can withstand multiple scenarios. [00:00] Introduction: From Intangible to Physical Economy [00:50] Opening Discussion with Jeff Moe [01:42] Oil Efficiency vs. Rising CapEx Requirements [03:39] Economic Growth: Labor, Capital, and Productivity [04:11] Infrastructure Investment and Reshoring Trends [06:52] Defense Spending and Capital Intensity [07:08] The Space Economy: Satellites and Connectivity [11:00] Memory Market Dynamics and Contract Changes [12:22] Cyclicality in a Capital-Intensive Economy [15:04] Consumption vs. Investment: Portfolio Implications [17:44] Connecting Themes to Bottom-Up Research [18:44] Idea Generation and Stock Selection Process [21:32] Winners and Losers: The Bits to Atoms Trade [22:00] Portfolio Construction: Inherent Contradictions [25:21] Where the Theme Might Be Wrong [26:09] Long-Term Wealth Creation and Economic Optimism [28:18] Closing and Subscription Information Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts #capitalmarkets #geopoliticalinvesting #commodityMarkets #capitalexpenditure #physicalEconomy #GDPGrowth

In this episode, Peter Lampert, international equity portfolio manager, examines the Middle East conflict and its implications for global markets. He walks through the portfolio's diversification strategy, explains the team's nearly 40-year history with Shell, and explores how a changing market backdrop has challenged traditional definitions of quality and why forward-looking analysis may matter more than historical patterns. How the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are affecting oil and LNG flows, and why equity markets have largely looked through the disruption so far. The portfolio's diversification strategy, balancing energy importers like TSMC with energy producers like Shell to create resilience across different scenarios. Why the team exited Shell in 2015 during the commodity boom, and what changed to make it attractive again when they reinitiated the position in 2022. How the traditional quality factor has underperformed over the last five years as interest rates and commodity prices rose, rotating investor interest away from high-quality growth companies. Why forward-looking analysis is critical—finding wealth-creating companies that don't fit the conventional quality mold, like European defense companies and Korean memory producers benefiting from AI demand. 0:00 Introduction & Episode Overview 0:27 Disclaimer 0:44 Middle East Conflict and Market Implications 1:13 Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Energy Disruption 2:10 Key Risks: Oil, LNG, and Infrastructure Damage 3:30 Portfolio Positioning and Energy Exposure 4:39 Case Study: How TSMC Manages Energy Risk 6:42 Portfolio Diversification Strategy 7:27 Balancing Energy Importers and Producers 8:37 Shell: A 40-Year Investment History 10:35 Quality Factor Underperformance 11:00 Redefining Quality in Changing Markets 14:41 Final Thoughts: Long-Term Perspective 15:19 Closing Remarks and Subscribe Host Info: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert, CFA Portfolio Manager Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@ MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/ company/mawer-investment- management/ https://www.instagram.com/ mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #Podcasts #BeBoringMakeMoney

In this episode, Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, examines a fixed income backdrop reshaped by geopolitical escalation, an energy shock, and sharply changing interest-rate expectations. He explains why higher benchmark yields and modestly wider spreads still leave many parts of credit looking expensive, where Mawer is finding more selective value through bottom-up research, and why the strategy remains tilted toward shorter-duration, higher-quality credit. The conversation also explores AI-related bond issuance from hyperscalers, signs of strain in leveraged finance and private credit, and what a more fragile lending environment could mean for investors. Highlights: How geopolitical escalation and higher oil prices have pushed inflation concerns back to the forefront and reshaped rate expectations in major markets. Why higher benchmark yields have not been enough to make much of longer-duration or lower-quality credit compelling today. A look at two selective opportunities: CoreWeave, tied to AI infrastructure, and a fallen angel with potential catalysts and downside protection. How AI is being used inside Mawer's research process to sort through a vast global credit universe and surface new ideas. Why massive borrowing by hyperscalers to fund AI CapEx could pressure investment-grade spreads over the next 12 to 18 months. Early signs of stress in leveraged loans and private credit, and why Brian sees growing evidence of "decay" in parts of the lending market. Chapters: [0:00] Introduction [0:32] Disclaimer [0:49] Welcome and Guest Introduction [0:54] Macro Environment Shifts: Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Shocks [1:44] Impact on Global Credit Markets and Central Bank Expectations [4:32] Where to Find Value in Credit Markets Today [6:47] Portfolio Positioning: Defensive Stance Explained [7:18] Credit Opportunity #1: CoreWeave and the AI Revolution [8:35] Credit Opportunity #2: A Fallen Angel Opportunity [9:49] Using AI Technology in Credit Research [10:59] Hyperscaler Bond Issuance: The New Market Dynamic [13:47] Impact of Tech Giants Crowding the Investment Grade Market [14:56] Private Credit Risks and Bank Syndication Challenges [16:53] Signs of Decay in Private Credit Markets [20:42] Closing Thoughts: Positioning for Opportunity [21:16] Outro Host: Kevin Minas, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Brian Carney, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas and Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow examine the forces shaping markets in the first quarter of 2026. From the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil, inflation, and growth to the broadening AI disruption across software and asset-light business models, they explore how investors can stay thoughtful in an increasingly complex environment. The conversation covers stagflation risks, bond market dynamics, the role of gold as a hedge, and the portfolio adjustments being made as quality businesses face new tests of durability in a changing world order. Key Highlights: • Middle East conflict and stagflation risks: The escalation in Iran has dominated Q1, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of daily global oil and gas consumption. Beyond energy, the conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, semiconductor inputs, and global growth—raising the specter of stagflation as slowing growth meets rising inflation, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates. • Equity market performance beneath the surface: While headline quarterly returns appeared calm, significant sector and regional divergence emerged. Energy outperformed (benefiting Canada and developed international markets), while U.S. mega-cap tech and software faced scrutiny over AI CapEx spending and disruption risks. • Bond markets challenged in inflationary environment: Central banks stayed on the sidelines in Q1, balancing inflation concerns against growth risks. Yields rose across the curve, with bonds selling off alongside equities and challenging their traditional safe-haven role. Diversification within fixed income—including global credit with higher yield and lower duration—remains critical for navigating different market regimes. • AI disruption broadening beyond software: The AI "loser" narrative expanded from software providers to consultants, insurance brokers, wealth managers, and other asset-light business models. Markets are pricing in disintermediation risk even where fundamentals haven't deteriorated, with stocks treated as "guilty until proven innocent" based on concerns about future cash flows. • Discipline through uncertainty: Despite multiple potential outcomes from geopolitical and market disruptions, Mawer's investment process remains focused on competitive advantages, durable returns on capital, and disciplined management. The playbook has been updated through broad diversification and careful position sizing—emphasizing that a quality approach carries investors through periods of heightened complexity. Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz examines how investors can navigate a market increasingly shaped by conflict, shifting narratives, and wider ranges of possible outcomes. He begins with the recent escalation in the Middle East and the market's relatively measured response, then considers the second-order effects that can matter just as much as the initial shock. The conversation also explores how recent AI-driven swings in software have revealed a market increasingly influenced by thematic flows and short-term sentiment, rather than the more measured process of weighing business fundamentals. Throughout, Paul returns to a central idea: good portfolio management is rarely about one big call, but about making many small, disciplined decisions within a diversified portfolio. Highlights: Why the market's reaction to the recent escalation in the Middle East has remained relatively measured so far John Deere as a second-order effects case study: how rising oil and fertilizer costs can affect customer economics, margins, and capital allocation Thematic trading and the gap between price and intrinsic value: the Centrini AI thought piece in February triggered a broad software sell-off, showing how quickly disruption narratives—not fundamentals—can dominate market pricing Capital intensity isn't the enemy—poor returns are. Microsoft and Amazon are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, but a key question is whether bundling compute with distribution advantages will deliver attractive returns on that capital. Why Paul believes the market's "voting machine" is increasingly overwhelming the "weighing machine." Markets vote on sentiment every day but building real businesses (and real wealth) takes years of focusing on fundamentals while tuning out the noise. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, U.S. equity portfolio manager Grayson Witcher explores what it means to invest exclusively in American businesses at a time when the U.S. is becoming more short‑term, more transactional, and more central to global change. He contrasts a shifting U.S. "extraction" mindset with China's longer-term industrial strategy and considers how that dynamic is reshaping globalization into a more regional, security-conscious world. The conversation then turns to portfolio implications: why the team has been reducing exposure to mature, highly penetrated software names facing intensifying competition and AI disruption, how the market's treatment of AI has evolved from hype to a more "show me the returns" phase, and where they see resilient opportunities. Highlights: How a more short-term, "extraction"-oriented U.S. policy stance—via tariffs, reshoring, and industrial policy—is altering incentives for companies and trading partners. The evolving nature of software moats in an AI world, including higher competitive intensity, mature end markets, and why some long-term winners' valuations may no longer be justified. The market's transition from rewarding any AI narrative to demanding clearer evidence of economic returns on massive cloud and data-center capital spending. A deliberate tilt toward businesses positioned for a more regionalized, security-focused world order, including nuclear, defense, and automation suppliers with multiple ways to win. The importance of remaining bottom-up and valuation-driven while acknowledging regime change—using portfolio construction to manage uncertainty rather than making binary macro bets. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Wen Quan Cheong, co-manager of Mawer's emerging markets equity strategy, outlines four major themes shaping the opportunity set today. First, the "picks and shovels" of AI: upstream enablers such as advanced chip manufacturers, memory makers, and specialized chip-testing firms that are benefiting from structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. Second, companies that are actually converting AI investment into higher returns on capital. Third, the "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," where national security concerns, tariffs, and "China plus one" strategies are driving a reconfiguration of strategic manufacturing infrastructure across Asia and the U.S. And finally, a broader universe of less obvious EM stories that illustrate how opportunity is evolving across regions and sectors as these forces play out. Highlights: Why upstream AI enablers are seeing such powerful earnings leverage: how capacity cuts, equipment bottlenecks, and surging demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND have flipped the memory market from oversupplied to structurally tight. What it takes for companies to truly convert AI investment into sustainable returns on invested capital, and why early, well-run adopters may enjoy a multi year edge. How shifting geopolitics, U.S. tariffs, and national security concerns are driving a "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," from TSMC-linked clean room specialists like Actor Group supporting new fabs to Chinese manufacturers using their domestic scale and integration to expand overseas. Why emerging markets are more than just China and tech, with examples ranging from Saudi insurance aggregation and Vietnamese pharmacies to ship maintenance businesses with recurring revenues. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Wen Quan Cheong, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Equity analyst Alex Romaines joins the podcast to unpack "accounting shenanigans" and why getting from reported numbers to the economic truth of a business is so critical for long-term investors. Drawing on forensic accounting frameworks, he explains how a deep grounding in accounting shapes the way he interrogates financial statements—moving beyond compliance with standards to questions of judgment, incentives, and sustainability. The conversation discusses the issue of stock-based compensation: why adding it back to "adjusted" earnings can be misleading, how dilution and buybacks can quietly transfer wealth from outside shareholders to insiders, and practical ways investors can incorporate these real costs into valuation. Alex then highlights other red flags on his radar today—from lengthening depreciation schedules on fast-changing tech hardware, to vendor financing that may inflate revenues, to the quiet return of special purpose vehicles. Highlights: How a forensic accounting mindset helps investors move from reported numbers to the real economics of a business—and why that gap matters. Stock-based compensation as a quiet wealth transfer mechanism, and practical ways long-term investors can account for its true cost. The growing role of judgment in modern financial reporting, from "adjusted" earnings to the incentives shaping management's disclosures. Other accounting signals Alex is watching now, including depreciation assumptions, vendor financing, and the renewed use of special purpose vehicles. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Alex Romaines, CFA Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In a world where geopolitical tension, economic inequality, and technological change are all accelerating, what does it mean to be a long‑term, bottom‑up investor? In this episode, portfolio manager Paul Moroz explores how today's regime differs from the post‑crisis "Pax Americana" era. Drawing on history—from Shakespeare to ancient debt jubilees—he connects recurring human patterns of fear, greed, and class conflicts to today's tensions. The discussion then turns to specifics around how investors must adapt in a more volatile world, and how AI is emerging both as a powerful market force and as a tool that is reshaping the day‑to‑day work of investors. Highlights include: How recurring historical patterns—from Shakespeare's Coriolanus to ancient debt jubilees—shed light on today's tensions around inequality and financial repression How portfolio construction may need to adapt: broader diversification, smaller positions, heavy emphasis on risk management Why bottom‑up analysis still matters as much as ever, even when top‑down forces feel louder How AI's ability to let fewer people do more work could widen existing wealth divides, reshape career paths in knowledge‑based fields, and force organizations to rethink how they hire, train, and promote talent Why the edge in investing is shifting from gathering information to asking better questions and exercising sound human judgment Host: Rob Campbell, CFA I nstitutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, we sit down with equity analyst Joshua Samuel to explore how artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are fundamentally reshaping the nature of competitive advantages tied to data. Josh presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating data moats in the modern era, breaking down four critical categories that can separate lasting advantages from temporary ones. The conversation examines how companies across sectors—from FinTech to defense—are leveraging data to drive better decision making and outcomes. He also addresses the flip side: where traditional data advantages are being eroded by AI's ability to synthesize information, and why trust and execution remain crucial even amongst data advantages. Key Highlights: AI systems now capture and analyze subconscious behavior patterns through clicks and scrolls, potentially knowing users better than they know themselves Traditional data moats in legal, medical, and scientific databases face existential threats as LLMs trained on humanity's collective knowledge can synthesize equivalent insights General-purpose AI can outperform specialized systems by piecing together disparate information, even without access to proprietary datasets In high-stakes B2B environments, established relationships and trust remain powerful defenses against AI disruption, especially where career risk is involved Examines Tencent as a rare example of a company that combines all four dimensions of a strong data moat—proprietary, continuously refreshed, high‑dimensional, and closed‑loop data—spanning social, payments, commerce, and mini‑program ecosystems. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager Guest: Joshua Samuel, CFA Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com . Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/