Know Your Risk Podcast

September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI capital expenditure. He estimates it at 3 to 3.5% of the entire US economy this year, against real GDP growth of roughly 4 to 4.5% — take it away, he says, and growth is at best flat, more likely negative. Also today: Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6 billion stock buyback plan appears to have backfired (bond yields rose, not fell, right after the announcement), and what that says about credibility and half-measures. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes may no longer fit today's fiscal and monetary environment, how persistent inflation changes the role of cash and hard assets, and what could eventually signal that the cycle is ending. They also examine oil nearing $100, rising diesel prices, escalating supply risks in the Middle East, the outlook for interest rates, and why strong nominal growth makes the case for rate cuts increasingly difficult. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult to justify at an extraordinary valuation, and where they see more attractive opportunities outside the market's most crowded names. Zach and Chase also discuss a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it means for the Fed, record seasonal gasoline and diesel prices, improving Chinese oil-demand signals, and why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may have been built for an economic regime that no longer exists. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of major U.S. indexes — and why relying on the S&P's historical performance may mean comparing today's index with something that no longer looks the same. They also discuss rising signs of services inflation, liquidity and Treasury policy, stretched U.S. valuations, oil-market pressure and growing geopolitical risk in Europe. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 2, 2026 — The AI data-center buildout is accelerating, but what are local communities actually getting in return? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the economics behind the data-center boom, why enormous investments in power and infrastructure don't necessarily translate into enormous employment, and why state and local governments are increasingly asking harder questions about the tradeoff. They also discuss market inefficiencies, opportunities created when entire sectors get sold indiscriminately, renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows and the growing pressure higher energy prices could put on interest rates. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

September 1, 2026 — Could diesel prices be headed toward $6? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why ship-to-ship oil transfers may have become much more difficult again, and why refined products could become an even bigger problem than crude oil itself. They also discuss rising Treasury yields, the pressure higher borrowing costs are putting on businesses and consumers, weakness beneath the surface of the economy, and where volatility may be creating opportunities in precious metals. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

August 31, 2026 — Chase Taylor explains why Iran’s apparent ability to threaten smaller ship-to-ship oil transfers could sharply reduce the volume moving through the Strait—from roughly 7 million barrels a day toward 2–3 million.Chase examines why that would be such a serious shock for an oil market already relying on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, declining floating inventories and a limited onshore inventory cushion. He also discusses the renewed exchange of attacks involving Iran and why the market may have far less protection against another supply disruption than headline oil prices suggest. Later, Chase covers the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a new high for the year, Scott Bessent’s attempt to step back from earlier bond-market intervention rhetoric, and a reported U.S.-Venezuela oil arrangement that Chase believes carries substantial political, legal and execution risk. Under the structure he discusses, the U.S. government would reportedly receive a 35% stake in a Venezuelan oil company and access to 20% of production at cost. 📈 Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

August 28, 2026 — Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message, why a traditional Taylor Rule framework could imply as many as eight rate hikes, and why the Fed may now be trapped between persistent inflation and the economic damage caused by tighter policy. They also examine the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Canada’s potential incentive to wait out the U.S. midterm elections, escalating Russia-NATO risks and the dangerous imbalance between missile production and interceptor capacity. Later, Zach and Chase ask a practical portfolio question: What might actually protect investors during a low-probability, high-impact geopolitical shock? Their discussion includes palladium, critical minerals, agriculture, European defense and energy. 📈 Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

August 27, 2026 — Gold-mining stocks have rallied nearly 50% from their mid-July lows. Zach Abraham explains why some miners may still offer unusually compelling value—and why a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the underlying opportunity has disappeared. Zach walks through how replacement-cost economics can expose hidden value in mining companies, why strong assets and reserves can provide room to be wrong, and why “buying the dip” only makes sense when the valuation supports the decision. He also discusses Nvidia’s latest results, why traditional bond-market signals have become increasingly difficult to interpret, rebounds across several beaten-down software stocks, international markets and additional—explicitly anecdotal—context he received about the internal debate preceding the decision to enter Iran. 📈 Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

August 26, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why revolutionary technologies can still produce enormous investment bubbles—and why the unprecedented buildout surrounding artificial intelligence may eventually face the same problem. Chase explains why capital-spending booms throughout history tend to overshoot demand, while Zach examines Nvidia's increasingly complex web of investments and financing across the AI ecosystem. They discuss what could happen if today's extraordinary margins begin to compress and why enormous amounts of future supply could become a problem much faster than investors expect. Plus, Zach and Chase revisit Treasury's intervention in the bond market, Stanley Druckenmiller's warning, America's growing debt problem and why they believe the consequences of decades of deficit spending may finally be beginning to arrive.

August 25, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's public criticism of recent Treasury policy—and why Chase believes the warning deserves far more attention than the controversy over how the op-ed was written. Chase examines Treasury's attempts to influence the bond market, the risk of escalating intervention when markets refuse to cooperate, and why using crisis-era tools when there is no crisis could create problems of its own. Plus, Chase breaks down the latest moves in oil, China's response to economic pressure surrounding Iran, mounting inflation risks and what he'll be watching from the Fed later this week.

August 24, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss what increasingly aggressive Treasury intervention in the bond market could mean for interest rates, inflation and the U.S. dollar. Chase explains why efforts to suppress long-term yields may work mechanically—but could create major consequences elsewhere through inflation, currency weakness and shorter-duration government financing. Zach and Chase also examine the escalating trade dispute with Canada, the economic relationship between the two countries, the latest developments involving Iran, and why recent policy moves have them questioning what policymakers may be seeing beneath the surface.

August 21, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why the Treasury's increasingly visible concern about long-term interest rates may be exposing a much deeper problem with U.S. debt, deficits and economic policy. They examine why attempts to suppress bond yields could ultimately lead to more monetary intervention, what rising oil and inflation pressures mean for policymakers, and why decades of short-term thinking have left the U.S. increasingly vulnerable in everything from government finances to energy, manufacturing and defense. Plus, Zach and Chase discuss geopolitical risks surrounding Iran and Russia, the growing importance of real assets, and why the traditional investment playbook may be increasingly mismatched with the world investors actually face.

August 20, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses why weakening results from Walmart may be an important warning about the American consumer as inflation continues to erode real purchasing power. Chase also examines the rapid reversal of the Treasury's bond-market intervention, rising oil and agricultural prices, why he believes policymakers may eventually be forced toward a larger liquidity response, the shift toward economic warfare with Iran, and an intriguing change in China's approach to trade and global influence.

August 19, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses the Treasury's unexpected move to increase buybacks of longer-duration bonds and why he believes it sends a much bigger signal than the size of the program itself. Chase explains why policymakers may be moving toward suppressing long-term yields, what that could mean for the dollar, inflation and precious metals, and why today's relatively small intervention could eventually lead to something much larger. He also examines the tension between the Fed's inflation strategy, rising energy costs and a bond market policymakers may no longer be willing to let tighten financial conditions on its own.

August 18, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses why soaring diesel costs may become a much bigger inflation problem than markets or policymakers are anticipating. He explains how diesel flows through transportation, agriculture, construction, home services and supply chains—and why rising freight costs could eventually show up in prices far beyond the gas station. Chase also examines pressure from oil and long-term interest rates, renewed stress across the AI trade, escalating tensions involving Iran and the UAE, and why today's combination of strong nominal growth and rising transportation costs could make inflation increasingly difficult to ignore.

August 17, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses a risk surrounding Iran and global energy markets that he believes investors may be overlooking: whether Iran could attempt to break the blockade through force as economic pressure continues to build. Chase also examines oil's latest breakout, rising long-term Treasury yields, deteriorating Chinese economic data, the potential for Chinese stimulus, and the continued drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—and why the eventual end of those releases could dramatically tighten an already stressed global oil market.

August 14, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why some of the most interesting investment opportunities may be hiding outside today's most crowded trades. They explore the enormous demographic shift created by an aging population, second- and third-order effects from GLP-1 drugs, healthcare and medical technology, and why powerful macro trends can matter more than chasing whatever is currently making headlines. They also discuss weakening retail sales, historically low volatility, Bill Ackman's latest portfolio move, and the concentration risk created by OpenAI and Anthropic's enormous role in the AI spending ecosystem.

August 13, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the stock market may have room for another leg higher despite many of the risks they've been warning about—and what could derail it. They break down cooling inflation data, the possibility that inflation returns, surprising performance beneath the surface of the AI trade, hyperscaler spending, China's increasingly competitive industrial economy, and an overlooked energy dynamic that could leave consumers paying dramatically more for fuel even without an enormous move in crude oil.

August 12, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why one of the most valuable skills in investing may be the willingness to admit when you're wrong—and why political identity, ideology and confirmation bias can make that increasingly difficult. They also break down the latest developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why a prolonged stalemate could actually increase Iran's incentive to escalate, Washington State's tax debate, the federal deficit, Berkshire Hathaway's post-Buffett capital allocation, and another unusual day across AI, semiconductors and volatility.